Posey Requests Moon, Stars, Second Half of SaberScouting Mock Draft

June 5th, 2008 · 2 Comments

By Kiley McDaniel & Frankie Piliere

We’ve got the second half of the mock draft here for you, but you might want to take it more in spirit rather than at face value, since there’s been a lot of developments in the past 24 hours that may make this attempt moot, but one particularly that will shake up the first round. We won’t be re-mocking the whole first round, at least not with a commentary on each pick, because we’re lazy, but we did give you backup options at each pick in yesterday’s top 15 mock, so go choose your own adventure with all those options at your disposal.

So, that big news? Kevin Goldstein was the first I saw report it: Buster Posey is asking for $12 million.

I’ll give you a minute to recover.

Here’s the funny part: I heard the same rumor earlier today, somewhat in passing, when I was talking to a team official and thought it was a joke, or like the Pedro Alvarez wants $15 million rumors. Turns out it wasn’t.

So this makes your fine writer (this is Kiley writing, by the way) irresponsible that I didn’t investigate that more, but didn’t most of you say “not a chance,” or something to that effect when you first read this? I thought so.

Catch the rest of my Posey logic, a hot Tanner Scheppers rumor, and the second half of the mock draft, including Kiley’s irresponsible and embarassing stab at projecting the sandwich round, all after the jump…

(Buster Posey photo: Richard C. Lewis/WireImage.com)

This all makes some sense, given that Posey was rumored to be raising his asking price with a white-hot college postseason performance. But why $12 million? He can’t possibly think he’s going to get that number, but as alluded to in the Boras asking price story I wrote early in the draft process, you have to take advice from Public Enemy regarding completely outlandish bonus demands: Can’t Truss It.

Posey’s agents (CAA, in case you’re wondering) have a job, one they’ve proven they know how to do, and that’s to satisfy their client, which usually means getting him the most money. If he was in line for, say, $4 million at #1 and could get $6 million at a later point, and is fine with going the $6 million route (because it might not work out), the only way to get him to that team that will pay $6 million is to put out a number that will scare all the teams inbetween.

Here’s the problem: $12 million is such a ridiculous number (exactly double the record-setting amount the Orioles paid slugging catcher Matt Wieters last year), that every team knows it’s a ploy.

Now, whether it’s a ploy in an effort to get an $8 million or $5 million payday from mystery team X remains to be seen, but if a team has him atop their board, especially in a shallow draft like this one, most would take him and sort out what the real number is later.

Teams almost certainly have Posey atop their board starting at #5, maybe as early at #3, so it’s gonna take a lot of scouting directors and owners to buy into this thinly-disguised ploy to get Posey to the big hitters.

Who are these big hitters? The biggest hitters are the Red Sox at #30, the Yankees at #28, and the Tigers at #21. And they all really want a premium talent, really want catching, and have the bank account and mindset to pay whatever the number might be. Any of these three could be the team causing Posey to try to navigate his way to them. Another team could also be offering to show Posey the money, or maybe there isn’t even a concrete team they’re looking to get to, they just found out they aren’t going #1 and want to weed out the slot payers.

By the way, this is a strategy that is used commonly, and many times doesn’t become public as it has in this instance. Madison Bumgarner reportedly used it last year, but the Giants called his bluff and Bumgarner ended up getting just over slot money at #10, but not as much money as it’s understood in the industry that he would’ve gotten from a mystery team later in the draft that he was trying to get to.

Many fans hate this practice, and almost every team doesn’t like it (if not see right through it), but for the agents that are trying to do the best they can for their clients, and you can’t blame them for trying.

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Also, some late-breaking news from Keith Law (subscriber only): Seattle’s doctor has reportedly given the team the okay to draft Tanner Scheppers, while a number of teams are still skeptical of his health.

Scheppers has undeniable top 10 talent if 100% healthy, but I find it hard to believe that the shoulder injury that was a stress fracture that now is supposed to be some sort of labrum injury, isn’t still a big problem. A doctor can tell you that this shoulder injury is fatigue/stiffness, a rehab rather than surgery injury, but how many guys have had that diagnosis, then ended up with a torn rotator cuff in the next few months?

Law also adds that Scheppers’ advisors are asking for top-4 overall money ($2.5 million ballpark), which indicates a deal has already been struck with the always popular mystery team. Assume Scheppers is a remote option in the first round for Seattle (20), Detroit (21), the Yankees (28) and Boston (30), and could be an over-slot later round pick by almost any team.

I can’t believe any team is prepared to pay that kind of money to a guy that very well might be the next Tim Stauffer (that is, highly regarded college pitcher that had a pre-existing shoulder injury when he signed and didn’t live up to expectations). Here’s to hoping for good health to every draft prospect.

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It’s getting late tonight, before a long day tomorrow, so we’ll go no visual frills version for the mock…

Here’s our running top 15’s (now featuring obsolete projections!) that we’re growing on with this next 15:

Kiley’s Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay - Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Kansas City - Buster Posey, C, Florida State
4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
6. Florida -Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
7. Cincinnati - Brett Lawrie, C, Canada HS
8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
9. Washington - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
10. Houston - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
11. Texas - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
12. Oakland - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
13. St. Louis - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
14. Minnesota - Aaron Hicks, CF, California HS
15. Los Angeles - Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

Frankie’s Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay - Buster Posey, C, Florida State
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Kansas City - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
6. Florida - Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
7. Cincinnati - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
9. Washington - Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
10. Houston - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
11. Texas - Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS
12. Oakland - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
13. St. Louis - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
14. Minnesota - Zach Collier, RF, California HS
15. Los Angeles - Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS

16. Milwaukee Brewers

Frankie: Brett Lawrie, C, Canadian HS

The Brewers are rumored to be all over Lawrie and they usually are pretty creative with their picks. Lawrie is a late riser but they would not hesitate to nab him if he was still on the board.

Kiley: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS

The Brew Crew has been borderline stalking Anthony Hewitt, but he’s just really, really raw and might still there at 32. Jason Castro has been rumored here, and Zach Collier is also an option, but Jack Z loves him some prep arms and Ethan Martin is a match.

17. Toronto Blue Jays

Frankie: Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

It seems like a stereotype for the Blue Jays but the fact of the matter is that Wallace is the best hitter still on the board. And, that has nothing to do with what “type” of players they like.

Kiley: Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

As long as Wallace is on the board and Lawrie isn’t, this is an easy one to project, given value and the Jays’ drafting history/player valuation method. You might could make a case for one of the Reese Havens/Jemile Weeks/Conor Gillaspie college infielder trio here, and the Jays have some liking for Zach Collier, but the chance they pass on Wallace in this scenario is remote.

18. New York Mets

Frankie: Jason Castro, C, Stanford

It may be a bit of an over draft but the word is that the Mets are leaning heavily towards this pick. It would be instant help to their system but Castro does not project as a star caliber player.

Kiley: Jason Castro, C, Stanford

The Mets’ liking for Castro and desire for a catcher is well known. They could aggressively alienate their fan base and take another college reliever, and it really wouldn’t be a bad move here, with Josh Fields, Andrew Cashner, and Ryan Perry all in play. As Frankie said, this may be a bit of an overdraft, and they could just grab the best prep arm and hope Castro is there at 22, but everyone wants catchers, so at some point an overdraft becomes standard and the Mets are in the right spot to beat the rush to grab Castro.

19. Chicago Cubs

Frankie: Casey Kelly, SS, Florida HS

The Cubs would like to take the best position player on the board, and if this scenario plays out, that best position player would be Kelly.

Kiley: Casey Kelly, SS, Florida HS

I agree, Kelly is the best on the board, and being a Dunedin native, fan of upside, and of two-sport athletes, Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken appears to be the type that will pay the premium to lock up Kelly. Zach Collier and local product Jake Odorizzi are both options as well.

20. Seattle Mariners

Frankie: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian

Seattle may move Cashner to a starting role if they pick him, but regardless it is his arm that they love. His huge arm fits well in either role.

Kiley : Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian

Seattle just seems like a great fit in my head for Cashner; is that weird? It’s probably just proof I think about this way too much. Seattle likes power arms, and may convert Cashner to the rotation, or may put him on the Morrow fast-track to prop up the big league bullpen. What we’re sure of is that he’ll throw really hard.

21. Detroit Tigers

Frankie: Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia

There doesn’t appear to be any big names falling into the laps of the Tigers this year. They may have to turn towards a guy that could help them quickly, like Fields.

Kiley : Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS

Josh Fields is a great fit here, but David Chadd can’t pass up a Boras client prep arm that reportedly hit 101 mph, can he? It just seems too good to be true. Fields and Perry both wouldn’t surprise me at this point.

22. New York Mets

Frankie: Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State

New York is looking to add some powerful bats to their farm system and Davis could be the best cure for that problem at this point in the first round.

Kiley : Zach Collier, RF, California HS

Collier could just as easily go 13th, or even 9th, but someone has to slip with all these guys grouped together, and Collier drew the short stick in this scenario, that admittedly has about a 0% chance of happening with this confusing draft. But if you’re reading a mock draft, you aren’t concerned with accuracy, are you? Collier could slip even farther; if the Mets take Castro at 18, they may go college reliever at 22.

23. San Diego Padres

Frankie: Lance Lynn, RHP, Mississippi

In a year that has very few good college arms, San Diego is very limited in their selection. They still would like a college arm and Lynn’s outstanding performance down the stretch could put him back into the first round.

Kiley: Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina

The Padres typically don’t go prep arm or college reliever high, the two things available at this pick. They also tend to value players differently than other teams, making Frankie’s Lance Lynn projection a possibility. The Red Sox love Reese Havens, but so do the Pads and Tribe, and there’s a chance he could be converted to catcher, which would make him a steal here, given that the bat is better than Jason Castro and the arm might be also.

24. Philadelphia Phillies

Frankie: Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF, California HS

This one makes a lot of sense. The Phils historically like to pick toolsy, athletic prospects and they could get creative in how they want to develop a talent like Hicks.

Kiley : Anthony Hewitt, CF, Connecticut HS

The Phillies love them some toolsy prep hitters, and Hewitt has his picture next to that in the dictionary. That is, if the term toolsy prep hitter was in the dictionary. The Phils don’t seem to be on the college relievers and Jake Odorizzi may be an option, but Philly tends to go bat high (except when a talent like Joe Savery falls into their lap, like last year).

25. Colorado Rockies

Frankie: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

Melville could be a very tough sign if he doesn’t get top 15 type money. But, all indications are that Colorado wants to take the best prep arm on the board. That could be Melville or Odorizzi.

Kiley: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS

The Rockies have had all kinds of scouting heat on Odorizzi leading up to the draft and he could go as high as 15 to the Dodgers, so they’re relieved to see him on the board here at 25. I’m not even sure who I’d project here if Odorizzi wasn’t around, probably Hewitt or Collier, who are both gone in my scenario.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks

Frankie: Anthony Hewitt, CF, Connecticut HS

Hewitt is ultimate high risk, high reward player. Someone will take a big gamble and a couple scouts we spoke to made this connection.

Kiley: Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia

The D’Backs get a break here with a good value and a guy that can step into their bullpen and pitch high-leverage innings in a pennant race. Ryan Perry is a fit here as well, but the D’Backs like a little track record on their college picks, which Fields has.

27. Minnesota Twins

Frankie: Isaac Galloway, OF, Los Osos HS

Minnesota never shies away from risky picks. Ben Revere was a shocker last year but they loved his athleticism and upside. Galloway fits that mold as well.

Kiley : Brett DeVall, LHP, Florida HS

The Twins have been on DeVall this season and either he or Galloway really fits their mold of toolsy, up the middle hitters and advanced feel pitchers. Either is an option here, and the best players left are mostly college relievers and infielders, which the Twins don’t normally take.

28. New York Yankees

Frankie: Mike Montgomery, LHP, Hart HS

The Yankees might not be able to flex their financial muscles this year since there doesn’t appear to be any big names dropping to them. This could be the year to finally help a weakness and add a high upside lefty.

Kiley: Alex Meyer, RHP, Indiana HS

The Yankees have a few options here; college reliever, raw starters, advanced corner bats. They’d really love to see any of the signability guys fall, like Cole, Hosmer, Crow, or Alonso, and would be especially psyched to get ahold of Casey Kelly, who they’ve coveted for some time (like the Tigers) or even more so if Buster Posey somehow makes it to 28; Brian Cashman might do a backflip. I can’t see the Yankees going with a reliever with their first pick, and the corner bats don’t profile to ever start in Yankee Stadium. So, of those raw starters there is one signability pick in Boras client Alex Meyer, lefty Mike Montgomery, and college righty Brad Holt, who the Yanks have been following closely. I’ll go with the high upside Boras arm, because anyone is signable for the Bombers. That being said, Montgomery is a distinct possibility here.

29. Cleveland Indians

Frankie: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami

Cleveland puts a premium on finding and producing polished position players. Many sources have linked Weeks to them throughout this draft season.

Kiley: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona

The Indians could go Jemile Weeks or Conor Gillaspie here, and Frankie was clearly thinking that, but I think they’ll want to shore up their bullpen with an instant impact reliever that has hit 100 in postseason play and has shown a Lidge-esque slider at times.

30. Boston Red Sox

Frankie: Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State

Boston has been outstanding at scouting and developing hitters. They were on Gillaspie in the Cape and have liked him ever since.

Kiley: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona

Boston could go in any number of directions here, with a flexible philosophy and most players they’re rumored to like off the board. It appears to boil down to college relievers and college hitters with what’s on the board for them here. Jemile Weeks, Conor Gillaspie, Aaron Weatherford, Ike Davis, and David Cooper are all options, along with a few prep arms. How’s that for a cop-out? I just have an inkling the Sox want another ring and a lefty reliever that hits 97 with a filthy bender, whose dad works at ESPN, whom Peter Gammons gushes about…it just makes too much sense.

And now, brace yourselves for Kiley’s completely irresponsible stab at the supplemental round, sans commentary…

31. Minnesota - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State

32. Milwaukee - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (FL)

33. New York Mets - Tyler Sample, RHP, Colorado HS

34. Philadelphia - Issac Galloway, OF, California HS

35. Milwaukee - Aaron Weatherford, RHP, Mississippi State

36. Kansas City - Mike Montgomery, LHP, California HS

37. San Francisco - David Cooper, 1B, California

38. Houston - Brad Holt, RHP, UNC-Wilmington

39. St. Louis - Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan

40. Atlanta - Xavier Avery, OF, Georgia HS

41. Chicago Cubs - Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State

42. San Diego - Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State

43. Arizona - Ross Seaton, RHP, Texas HS

44. New York Yankees - Brett Marshall, RHP, Texas HS

45. Boston - Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine

46. San Diego - Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana

So, what’s coming tomorrow as far as real-time draft coverage? Well, I’m done promising things, so just show up, and I promise there will be some interactive elements, a draft blog of some kind, and more information. And I might make another Public Enemy reference…it’ll be draft-tastic!

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Tags: 2008 MLB Draft · Draft Buzz · Our Opinion

2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 The last of the last mock drafts « Future Redbirds // Jun 5, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    […] The guys from Saberscouting.com finishes up their mock draft, and Kiley goes as far as to predict the sandwich round. He has the […]

  • 2 The Draft Liveblog | Saber-Scouting // Jun 5, 2008 at 1:45 pm

    […] my last attempt at mocking these picks, but not before a note about last night’s mock update before we get going here.  The heavy rumors of Jersey prep arm Jason Knapp to Philly […]

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