Saber-Scouting’s Mock Draft, Version 1.0

April 21st, 2008 · 42 Comments

By Frankie Piliere & Kiley McDaniel

We promised this mock draft a week ago and are finally delivering it now. So, we apologize for the delay and are trying to make it worth the wait by giving you a little more information than the average mock does. I know the one thing I hate when I’m reading projections of supposed experts is that they project this guy for this spot and only give you a sentence explanation—shouldn’t an expert have slightly more to say?

So, while we aren’t experts, we decided to give you a more (warning: SAT word coming) granular experience, in regards to amount of draft info and insight into each team’s decision process. We tackled thing thing PTI-style, with a back-and-forth and both of our projections and thoughts on each pick.

A disclaimer: the specific team/player buzz and late rising prospect info that really makes mock drafts run hasn’t really gotten out yet (we have some, not much) as teams are still evaluating players, so we limited ourselves to the first ten picks to stick with guys we have the most info on, to keep from a 40,000 word column, and to not waste too much of everyone’s time on the more fluid portions of the first round.

And if you just want to see our projections and not all of those pesky words in between, just skip to the bottom for the super-condensed version. Enough introduction, I’ll let Frankie start our irresponsible stabs in the dark after the jump…

(Pictured Above, Right: San Diego’s LHP Brian Matusz)

#1 - Tampa Bay Rays

Frankie: I’m going to be very undaring and say the Rays take Tim Beckham. They like their athletes and tools and he couldn’t be more ideal.

Kiley: Oh, come on you have to have more to say than that. Two sentences?! We promised analysis!

Frankie: It’s black & white. Beckham is easily the best prep guy in the draft and there’s no slam dunk collegian like Price

Kiley: I guess that’s better. I’ll direct people to my prior report on who the Rays are actually considering as candidates for the #1 pick for more information on this pick. I think it’s a safe assumption at this point based on what I’ve heard that Tim Beckham is atop the Rays board for #1. And while team needs shouldn’t have an impact on baseball draft picks in a perfect world, it does help when there’s a big logjam of youngsters at a few levels (including the bigs) and there’s a virtual coinflip at the pick. Anyone you ask would say Beckham or coinflip is how they rank it, and the Rays would take an up-the-middle guy with their gluts of talent at pitching depth and corner bats. And the Rays love these types of players anyway. So that’s what Frankie meant.

Frankie’s Projection for #1: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia’s Griffin HS

Kiley’s Projection for #1: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia’s Griffin HS

#2 - Pittsburgh Pirates

Kiley: The Pirates’ new President is the former MLB Draft slotting czar Frank Coonelly and they can’t go cheap again after the Dan Moskos fiasco last year, and have said they won’t. I think they have to pick Pedro Alvarez here, he’s the clear best player to me, but at the least, if it’s a coinflip with him, Crow, and Matusz, and Alvarez is the splashier pick and they’ll likely err to that side, and err towards an impact hitter.

Frankie: I think it completely comes down to if they are brave enough to pick another righty pitcher with potential cause for concern with Crow’s arm action. I don’t know what that right decision is but i have to think their past experiences with these pitchers has to somewhat impact how they evaluate the idea of picking Crow. I really don’t see any way of going the prep route. I’m going to say when push comes to shove they pick Crow.

Kiley: Wait, didn’t you say they should pause because of the funk in the arm action?

Frankie: Pause, yes. Considering their history they better be united on the pick but I think it’s a pick they have to make. They can’t live in fear of past disasters.

Kiley: I live in fear of all of my past disasters. I think it’s Crow v Alvarez here and while need and PR shouldn’t run a pick, you err towards hitters, you err towards track record, you err towards hitters and those with LH power given the org’s situation, and you need a splashy pick like some teams do in Latin America to signal you aren’t messing around anymore. I think Crow is very good, but ultimately another top 5 college pitcher (not that good of a track record, look it up), and Alvarez is a potential Teixeira bat. I just can’t see them passing on that since money isn’t an option here. So we’ll agree to disagree, and much like Tony Kornheiser in Toss Up on PTI, I win.

Kiley: One more thing on the Pirates. I don’t make a pick based on some of those criteria I just named, but I think they will in an effort to change the losing culture there. We’re trying to think like the teams are, and maybe later will have a story where we make picks if we were the teams, but for now we’re trying to get in their heads, and I think splashy pick is in Pittsburgh’s head.

Kiley’s Projection for #2: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

Frankie’s Projection for #2: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

#3 - Kansas City Royals

Frankie: I love the Royals track record evaluating bats the past few years. And, year after year, they aren’t as afraid of the price tags as people think. Eric Hosmer for the Royals I say. He’s just way too much of a masher to drop. People were thrown for a loop when they picked Moustakas last year but I refuse to be surprised this time. They see a bat they like, they take it. Plus, Hosmer is (depending on who you talk to) an even bigger bat than Moustakas. Unless the price tag is just too insane, I think KC will go Hosmer.

Kiley: We also reported on Hosmer’s reported price tag, along with Pedro Alvarez’s, in a prior article. It’s great being self-referential. Moving back to the pick at hand, I would agree that KC has been good with bats lately and won a standoff with a top prep bat and Boras last year for Moustakas, so you gotta give them some dap (second PTI reference, sorry). Hosmer, a Boras client, is a distinct possibility but I have a feeling they’ll shy from corner bats this year with that being their strength by a good margin at this point. I think Aaron Crow, another confirmed Boras client, might be a quicker moving, big league deal alternative as a hometown guy. There’s also rumblings Missouri prep RHP Tim Melville could be a discount pick here, but I don’t think KC skimps on this one. I’m going to say they take Crow here to try to prop up the pitching staff with a hometown power arm that will move fast, to join Meche, Greinke, Bannister, and Soria.

Frankie: I have to agree that I doubt that there’s much to the Melville rumblings. I just don’t see KC ever being cheap on the draft with good players on the board.

Kiley: That’s a losing culture than may be changing. KC is headed in the right direction with Dayton Moore, Deric Ladnier, and company; they’ve been making some good moves.

Frankie’s Projection for #3: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida’s American Heritage HS

Kiley’s Projection for #3: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

#4 - Baltimore Orioles

Kiley: They’re a bit of a mystery with the Angelos involvement never fully known and going from toeing the line to giving a record bonus to Matt Wieters last season. It appears Andy MacPhail is ready to spend some dough and rebuild this thing, and Joe Jordan is someone you want in charge of that kind of money. Everyone keeps saying this is a 4-player draft, and whether that’s true or not, I’ve got the top 4 players going in the top 4 picks, so I’ll send the safest pick of that bunch to Baltimore, San Diego’s LHP Brian Matusz.

Frankie: Two years, two high priced bats? That’s the question and I say yes. In my mock so far, they would have the chance to get Pedro Alvarez. Can you imagine a team having the chance to have Wieters and Alvarez in their organization? If he’s there as I project, they have to do it. Teaming Alvarez with Wieters in their system is just too ideal not to happen. It won’t be cheap obviously. Something tells me if they were willing last year though, they’ll be willing again.

Kiley: I like the choose your own adventure/alternate reality shapes our mocks are taking. Oh, wait, if we’re going to be on ESPN, I have to call you an idiot. So, yeah, you’re such a moron, whatever I say is right, whatever you say is wrong, and [generic slam about your physique]. See, people love contrived conflicts!

Kiley’s Projection for #4: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

Frankie’s Projection for #4: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

#5 - San Francisco Giants

Frankie: This is the beauty of mocks. The Giants are always a tricky one to project. Drafting on needs is evil, yes, but boy could the Giants use a bat. In my book, Justin Smoak is their man. I think he’s pretty safe that he won’t blow up in their faces and could contribute in a hurry. It’s a nice fit.

Kiley: I’ll go in yet another direction. The Giants need bats, there’s no elite arms for this spot, but the problem is with $2 million bonus baby Angel Villalona already only able to play 1B, they’ll have to really like a 1B to take one here. Hosmer or Smoak might fit, and there’s a possibility one of them could play LF, so either could work here. But, I’ll go with our first somewhat off-the-board pick and say the Giants take a quick-rising middle infielder with a serious bat and some serious helium, Georgia’s SS Gordon Beckham. He might have value a few picks lower, but he could be had at slot and reach the majors quickly at either SS or 2B, both spots SF needs help at. I’m operating on the assumption that they don’t have any of the 1B materially ahead of Beckham, and this is the type of discount need-based pick that comes out the night before the draft and mildly surprises everyone, so I’ll stick my neck out there now and project this early. The Giants could go in a lot of different directions, though.

Frankie’s Projection for #5: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

Kiley’s Projection for #5: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

#6 - Florida Marlins

Kiley: Hosmer certainly makes sense here as the best available player on most boards, and he’s a hometown guy, being a long-time south Florida prep standout. The Marlins don’t have much of a Boras history and might not want to pay the piper, but could easily take a lower-price hometown 1B in Miami’s Yonder Alonso, red-hot South Carolina 1B Justin Smoak, or white-hot FSU catcher Buster Posey. The Fish strike me as a risk taking organization that trusts their scouts, but with a budget in mind, so I’ll go with Posey, on the strength of his rampant top 10 buzz and the Marlins’ perpetually influx catcher position.

Frankie: Thanks for the brilliant bridge to my point. I’m going to be radical and have them take Kyle Skipworth. I know his demands might be high but if he’s picked that early I think they might be more reasonable than expected. A total package prep catcher, I just can’t see Florida passing on that. To me, that’s really a great fit assuming his demands aren’t crazy. Matusz (in my universe) is on the board but I just can’t envision that scenario at all.

Kiley: Skipworth might fit the Marlins’ tendencies better, it just seemed to me that Posey has more value at that spot, and with his quicker moving type bat will fill the need quicker—ROI is something the Marlins seem very aware of. Hosmer and his alleged demands are in freefall on my board and Matusz on yours. Is Matusz a Boras guy? He seems like a slot-deal, high probabilty lefty, why is he dropping for you?

Frankie: Matusz does not seem universally loved, at least not like he was. He has shown at least some small dents in his armor this year. This is basically just how the chips have fallen in my mock. Sometimes guys slip for no real reason besides just unexpectedly being in play when teams hadn’t expected them to be.

Kiley: Matusz just seemed to me like the scouting director’s favorite that might be the type to slip in at #2 before he slips to #8. But, like you said, this doesn’t always make sense, and teams generally do stick to profiles.

Kiley’s Projection for #6: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

Frankie’s Projection for #6: Kyle Skipworth, C, California’s Patriot HS

#7 - Cincinnati Reds

Frankie: Cincy has faith in their high schoolers. Melville should be right there for the taking. Am I the only one that sees a match there? He’s right up their alley and I really have seen no hint that they are changing their draft philosophy anytime soon. And, I really don’t think there’s another guy there for them to take that fits as well as Melville.

Kiley: So, I guess we’re only going to agree on #1. At #7, the Reds have all the first baseman still on the board; Hosmer, Smoak, and Alonso, and they arguably make up the top 3 players on the board. And Joey Votto isn’t the type of guy to force you not to take a 1B, especially with these 1Bs officially slipping. The Reds don’t have a history of paying for Boras guys (Hosmer) and Smoak is the consenus guy ahead of Alonso, so for me, this pick is Smoak or whoever the Reds have as the top arm, either Tulane’s Shooter Hunt, Fresno State’s Tanner Scheppers, or Missouri prepster Tim Melville. I think when it comes down to it, the Reds take the pitcher and go with Tulane’s version of Homer Bailey, Shooter Hunt.

Kiley: In a related note, no Matusz through seven picks?! His fanclub will be coming to your doorstep!

Frankie: It’s coming, shhhh. His spotlight time is coming.

Kiley: The creepiest line in Mock Draft history.

Frankie’s Projection for #7: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri’s Holt HS

Kiley’s Projection for #7: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

#8 - Chicago White Sox

Kiley: At 8, we have the other Sox, who were mandated to take a high ceiling arm last year and got San Francisco’s Aaron Poreda, and with the 8th pick this year, you have to think they’re reaching for the stars again. They could go Hosmer here but I’m not sure they want to pay the premium and probably will err towards a quicker-moving bat. And, gift-wrapped on a silver platter for a starved system is a dynamic bat with Teixeira comps, South Carolina’s Justin Smoak. There’s always a pick or two in the first round where everything shakes out perfectly for one team and someone gets a steal. In my mock, the White Sox are that team.

Frankie: I think you know where I’m going with this. Brian Matusz, anyone? I think this is his rock bottom destination. No way he gets past the Chisox.

Kiley’s Projection for #8: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

Frankie’s Projection for #8: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

#9 - Washington Nationals

Frankie: I know a really obsessed Nationals fan (no I’m not kidding, those really do exist) that wants to know this badly. I have the Nats picking Yonder Alonso. They’ve really made a variety of early picks of late, why not a college bat? They had a nice contingent with a watchful eye on him in the Cape this summer so make of that what you want. They lack polished college bats in their system so in that regard it also makes sense.

Kiley: This is the home I see for Eric Hosmer. He’s a value up in the top 5, but I can see him dropping to this area more realistically than Matusz. The Nats are a team formerly very starved for dynamic bats, now just pretty starved, and Washington is a big market that has spent in the draft, and Hosmer is a high school toolshed, it just makes too much sense. In this scenario, both the White Sox and the Nats are the big winners.

Frankie’s Projection for #9: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

Kiley’s Projection for #9: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida’s American Heritage HS

#10 - Houston Astros

Kiley: The Astros just took a high school catcher in thw first round in 2006 with Orlando prep backstop Max Sapp. Sapp’s been hot and cold, mostly cold since signing, but teams don’t like a redundancy in top picks at certain positions (like catcher) as it indirectly admits a bad pick previously. I say this because Kyle Skipworth could be a great fit here, but J.R. Towles just broke into the bigs as well, so Skipworth will have to wait a bit longer. Luckily, Lance Berkman is versatile defensively and Houston needs a bat, so I’ll give them 1B Yonder Alonso from Miami at this pick.

Frankie: To me, this seems like an ideal spot for the other Beckham, Gordon Beckham. The Astros never seem to be too daring and Beckham doesn’t figure to cost a ton. Seeming to be on the decline, it’d make sense for them to try and re-establish a shortstop they can build around for the future. A new center piece they could surely use. I think this is a nice landing spot for Shooter Hunt also. A lot of ways they can go for sure.

Kiley’s Projection for #10: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

Frankie’s Projection for #10: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

In honor of Spinal Tap, we’re going to extend this thing one more pick. Because this Mock Draft goes to 11.

#11 - Texas Rangers

Frankie: Texas has consistently shown they will take the big arm, whether it is college or high school. It seems to me they are just set on taking the most electric arm they can find. Look at Beavan, Kiker, Main and then their college picks. That’s why I went with Shooter Hunt. They’ve taken guys that were considered to maybe be more throwers then pitchers. Hunt is more advanced being a college guy but he’s had bouts of control issues and the like. Nice spot for Hunt to fall into I think. I doubt he’d get much further.

Kiley: I think Kyle Skipworth is the best player here, but Texas is all loaded up on catchers and they love to take young arms, so while Skipworth is still a possibility here, I’ll go with the top arm available, which is a tossup between Tim Melville and Tanner Scheppers, but with all the 1st round HS arms lately for the Rangers, I think they’ll take a more mature option here with Scheppers.

Frankie’s Projection for #11: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

Kiley’s Projection for #11: Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State

Kiley: For a quick list of “just missed” prospects, I have a top tier of 13 players, so those 2 left over would be California prep C Kyle Skipworth and Missouri prep RHP Tim Melville. For those wondering, I’ll give two more bonus projections and give Skipworth to Oakland at 12 and give Melville to St. Louis at 13. They both turn out to be hometown picks of sorts, as well. So, there’s your bonus picks without the annoying commentary and canned banter.

Kiley’s Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay -Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Kansas City - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
4. Baltimore -Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
5. San Francisco - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
6. Florida - Buster Posey, C, Florida State
7. Cincinnati - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
8. Chicago White Sox - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
9. Washington - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
10. Houston - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
11. Texas - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State
12. Oakland - Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
13. St. Louis - Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

Frankie’s Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay -Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
2. Pittsburgh - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
3. Kansas City - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
4. Baltimore - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
6. Florida -Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
7. Cincinnati - Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS
8. Chicago White Sox - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
9. Washington - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
10. Houston - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
11. Texas - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

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Tags: 2008 MLB Draft · Draft Buzz · Our Opinion

42 responses so far ↓

  • 1 jfish26101 // Apr 21, 2008 at 5:19 pm

    Very interesting write up…

    My personal mock top 10 at this point in time is:

    1. Tampa Bay Rays - Tim Beckham
    2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Aaron Crow
    3. Kansas City Royals - Brian Matusz
    4. Baltimore Orioles - Pedro Alvarez
    5. San Francisco Giants - Justin Smoak
    6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth
    7. Cincinnati Reds - Gordon Beckham
    8. Chicago White Sox - Buster Posey
    9. Washington Nationals - Jamile Weeks
    10. Houston Astros - Aaron Hicks

    Things will change but I enjoyed your write up. I have Hosmer going to Rangers, Alonso to the A’s and Scheppers going to the Cards but again things will change. I’ve only been following the draft and college baseball for 1-2 seasons so am still learning about the whole process.

    Thanks for the article.

  • 2 John // Apr 21, 2008 at 5:20 pm

    Great work guys. It’s funny, I keep reading and hearing guys like Smoak and Alonso for the Nats, but they’ve already moved Chris Marrero to 1B. What happens if they take one of those guys? Who switches positions? Smoak looks like enough of an athlete to play OF, but what about Alonso? It doesn’t seem to make sense that they’d move Marrero back to the OF after they already tried him there.

  • 3 M // Apr 21, 2008 at 5:51 pm

    Frankie,

    Do you honestly think the Pirates’ front office is going to pay top dollar for a pitcher? Come on, they passed on Detwiler’s asking price for Daniel Moskos last year. Rumor right now is that Crow is looking for David Price money and an MLB deal.

  • 4 Chase // Apr 21, 2008 at 6:34 pm

    M,

    The Pirates are under new management nowadays so at this point, anything is possible.

  • 5 erik // Apr 21, 2008 at 6:44 pm

    Melville’s stock has taken a beating, from what I’ve heard. His velo is down considerably. I haven’t seen him personally or anything, can anyone confirm?

  • 6 Mike R. // Apr 21, 2008 at 6:54 pm

    Is there any way you guy are going to extend this to all 30 teams? Please!!! For all us Yankee fans who visit religiously.

    I read on a mock draft from another site that projected Dennis Raben landing to the Yankees. Any thoughts?

  • 7 Jeff // Apr 21, 2008 at 8:53 pm

    great job guys. but you guys have to give me more i need to know which high ceiling high school arm my Dodgers will take! (notice ive given up that they will take a any sort of bat or collegian pitcher at all)

  • 8 Jeff // Apr 21, 2008 at 8:55 pm

    i am also wondering about the melville question.

    do you guys think that if he drop he might not sign and end up going to college (UNC? i think)

  • 9 M // Apr 21, 2008 at 9:16 pm

    Chase, new management doesn’t mean new ownership. Fyi, here is my full mock as of 4/19

    1 TAM - Tim Beckham SS - HS
    2 PIT - Eric Hosmer 1B - HS
    3 KCR - Tim Melville RHP - HS
    4 BAL - Gordon Beckham SS - 4 YR
    5 SFG - Pedro Alvarez 3B/1B - 4 YR
    6 FLA - Kyle Skipworth C - HS
    7 CIN - Buster Posey C - 4 YR
    8 CHW - Brian Matusz LHP - 4 YR
    9 WAS - Gerrit Cole RHP 4 YR
    10 HOU - Tanner Scheppers RHP - 4 YR
    11 TEX - Shooter Hunt RHP - 4 YR
    12 OAK - Justin Smoak 1B - 4 YR
    13 STL - Brett Wallace 3B - 4 YR
    14 MIN - Aaron Hicks - OF HS
    15 LAD - Yonder Alonso - 1B 4 YR
    16 MIL - Christian Friedrich - LHP 4 YR
    17 TOR - Aaron Crow - RHP 4 YR
    18 NYM - Kyle Lobstein - LHP 4 YR
    19 CHC - Alex Meyer - RHP HS
    20 SEA - Conor Gillaspie 3B - 4 YR
    21 DET - Brett Hunter - RHP 4 YR
    22 NYM - Brett DeVall - LHP HS
    23 SDP - Ethan Martin - 3B HS
    24 PHI - Sonny Gray - RHP HS
    25 COL - Dennis Raben - OF 4 YR
    26 ARI - Josh Fields - RHP 4 YR
    27 MIN - Jemile Weeks - 2B 4 YR
    28 NYY - Daniel Webb - RHP HS
    29 CLE - Tyson Ross - RHP 4 YR
    30 BOS - Lance Lynn - RHP 4 YR

  • 10 Chase // Apr 21, 2008 at 9:58 pm

    M,

    From what I’ve read, its one of the jobs of the management to convince the ownership where to allocate resources. But, you are right, ownership does make the final call on things. I would just assume that Neal Huntington and Co. would try and convince the ownership that the management is not the only thing that needed changing.

    Great job on the mock, btw! I love the format and the insight, as well. It will be interesting to see what the changes from 1.0 to 2.0.

  • 11 sluhser // Apr 22, 2008 at 12:06 am

    https://www.prepsports3.stltoday.com/baseball/08/stats/pitch293.shtm

    Melville’s stats this year can be found hear. Obviously high school stats aren’t entirely reliable in terms of projection, so take it FWIW I suppose.

  • 12 Jess // Apr 22, 2008 at 12:37 am

    I’m surprised that you have Alvarez going fourth to Baltimore. As an O’s fan, I think that’d be great, but you don’t think that Pittsburgh would take him?!?!

  • 13 Jared // Apr 22, 2008 at 12:44 am

    The Dodgers taking a college hitter? Although I do like Alonso, I don’t see it happening.

    Great format for the mock; I really enjoyed reading it. I’d like to know what you guys think about the Dodgers’ pick.

  • 14 Paul // Apr 22, 2008 at 8:35 am

    Littlefield insisted that ownership had no restrictions on who to draft last year. His reasoning for picking Moskos last year was that he thought he could help the Pirates sooner. Poor logic, for sure, but I believe that was his logic nonetheless. He was trying to save his job, but ended up having the opposite effect.

    New management is looking at Tim Beckham and Alvarez in that order. They will not pass on anyone based on money issues (within reason) or agent.

  • 15 Aaron // Apr 22, 2008 at 10:26 am

    I can’t find the post after the jump. There’s no jump for me to take…. haha. Any help?

  • 16 Brett // Apr 22, 2008 at 11:11 am

    So, where exactly is this list? I see jfish26101 & M’s, but not seeing the original. Am I missing something?

  • 17 Paul // Apr 22, 2008 at 11:22 am

    M,

    If 4 YR means senior you should change them all to 3 YR, no one on that list is a college senior. Couple of things, I see no way that Aaron Crow falls out of the top 5. As a Mariner fan, M’s have lots of depth at 3B and are probably taking an arm to restock their system - probably college but they surprised us last year by taking a HS arm.

  • 18 Mike R. // Apr 22, 2008 at 11:51 am

    M:

    As a Yankee fan I can tell you that if I were Cashman and your scenario played out pick by pick I would not select Daniel Webb. I think Kyle Long is higher on our draft board. If he’s available I grab him even though I think he will be long gone by 28 in the real draft.

    Other small discrepancies include:

    - I can’t see Smoak falling to #12. He’s just too good.

    -It’s unlikely that Brett Wallace will be taken before Yonder Alonso. Very few people believe he can stick at Third.

    -I would be shocked if the Pirates (or anyone for that matter) selects Eric Hosmer with Pedro Alvarez on the board. They have comparable ceilings and Alvarez has a much better chance of reaching it.

    -Last but not least, I like Ryan Perry better than Josh Fields. Nothing against Fields I just think that Perry is better.

  • 19 jscape2000 // Apr 22, 2008 at 12:05 pm

    Brett- are you using Safari? because I don’t see the list either.

    When I switched to Firefox, the list shows up. Must be a bug of some kind…

  • 20 KGengler // Apr 22, 2008 at 12:08 pm

    4 YR just means 4 year university. There aren’t any JUCO players projected in the first round, but that would be 2 YR. And Josh Fields from Georgia is a college senior.

  • 21 fpiliere44 // Apr 22, 2008 at 12:30 pm

    Hey guys,

    There seems to be some sort of bug. Lemme jump in the admin and see what the problem is.

    FP

  • 22 fpiliere44 // Apr 22, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    I think I have it fixed. If anyone is still having problems seeing the article lemme know.

    FP

  • 23 Alan // Apr 22, 2008 at 12:56 pm

    The one player i keep hearing moving up to the back end of the first round/comp round is Rick Oropesa. There is huge buzz on him, but I only hear it from scouts and crosscheckers and not online.

  • 24 Aaron // Apr 22, 2008 at 1:09 pm

    Fixed. Thanks, Frankie.

  • 25 theglobalizer // Apr 22, 2008 at 1:11 pm

    I like the O’s to take Matusz. College player, lefty — fits the O’s mold of taking players that could turn into huge trade chips (catchers, LHPs, etc.) I think they’re also looking for a contribution in 2011, which Matusz could manage better than a high-schooler.

  • 26 M // Apr 22, 2008 at 5:33 pm

    Since I’ve essentially taken over this comment section, sorry guys, I’ll eventually post a link to my full mock draft, with explanation.

    Crow is going to be looking for a deal that could top David Price’s. There are few teams in the top 5 who would pay that. Not to mention, there are some serious concerns about his mechanics and velocity. To be honest, I would not be shocked if is was discovered he is using HGH. *Note I am NOT implicating him, I’m just saying it’s a feeling I have.

    As for Alvarez, there are some serious concerns about not only his swing and disappearing against Friday starters (for those who don’t follow college baseball, the Friday starter is almost always the number 1 starter/ace), but also his ability to stay at third base.

    Perry only has Fields beaten in velocity. In terms of secondary stuff, Fields is ready to contribute this year.

    As for Wallace v. Alonso, I’ll do a writeup on that in a little while. I’m not sold on Alonso at all.

  • 27 M // Apr 22, 2008 at 5:34 pm

    FYI,

    For those who have never seen Hosmer’s swing, the bat speed he generates is absolutely ridiculous.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGB86h_JLNA

  • 28 Ian // Apr 22, 2008 at 8:06 pm

    First off, there is no way Aaron Crow drops out of the top 10.

    I really like Matusz, whoever gets him could probably have him up by opening day 2009, he’s ridiculously good. After a rough start in his first game, where he gave up 6 runs in 4.2 innings, he’s given up only 7 runs in his next 9 appearances (8 starts). So he’s at 66.2 innings with 90 strikeouts, and only 52 hits, with 8 of those coming in that bad first start. Take out that start and he’s given up 7 earned runs in 62 innings, for a 1.02 ERA.

    I definitely like Tim Beckham and Alvarez to go 1-2, so Matusz and Crow will probably go 3-4, in whatever order…

  • 29 Eric SanInocencio // Apr 22, 2008 at 9:22 pm

    Beckham is less of a question than Alvarez? I mean a power hitting left handed stick that has played in the best collegiate conference in the country has more question than a high schooler?

    I know the positions are different, but you can never draft for need. That being said, if I’m the Rays I take Pedro Alvarez. He’s the best player, and his ceiling is just as high as anyone you list. I don’t see how a two-time All-American who has played at the top of the SEC is more of a question than Tim Beckham.

    When I see Tim Beckham, I see Chris Nelson.

    Also, doesn’t Hosmer’s swing remind anyone of Shawn Green?

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  • 31 kileymcd // Apr 23, 2008 at 7:22 am

    Wow, these comments exploded. I posted the mock and went to some games…and I come back and can’t answer all these at once. But I’ll try.

    To all,
    Thanks for reading and commenting and all that good stuff. We love the commenters. And if a non-commenter is reading this, we love you too.

    John,
    Marrero is a guy that can probably play LF if he needs to, to get in the lineup, like LaPorta. He’s also not a big-bodied $2 million golden child, or one of a 4-part blocking wall like some teams have. When there’s a little flexibility and no elite guys (Marrero isn’t quite there), you take best player available in the draft. I think Marrero went to 1B to rush the bat to the bigs, and now if Smoak or Alonso would be in the system, LF might be the quickest way.

    M and Chase,
    I agree with Frankie, cost is no option with the new regime for that pick, or at least that’s what we’re hearing, so that’s what we’re believing. It comes down to who they like. I think it’s Alvarez, Frankie thinks it’s Crow.

    Erik,
    His velo had been down some, but he falls into the midwestern/northern pitchers that get late starts and pitch in cold, so their super-important showcase showings take every more weight. And word is the stuff is slowly coming back each start, so he’s still the top prep arm as far as we’re concerned.

    Mike R,
    We’d like to, but a PTI-style 30 pick mock might beat the Sports Guy’s long-running 129,000 word column record, and as we mentioned, it’s almost useless to go past 10-12 at this point. But I have been hearing some names tied to teams later in the first round lately as the evaluation period ends and office part starts, so maybe part 2 of this column will come soon.

    Jeff,
    I think Melville will be top 20 picks, in the 5-15 range as of now, and very few pass up that money out of HS. As for the Dodgers, you’ll have to wait with the Yankee fans, but if you want a HS arm name to chew on for #15, I’ll give you 3: Tennessee prep RHP Sonny Gray, Indiana prep RHP Alex Meyer, and Georgia prep RHP Ethan Martin.

    Jess,
    I think Alvarez will have to lose a limb or commit a couple felonies to get past #2, so, to keep with the theme of jumping ship to ESPN TV later, Frankie is ugly and doesn’t understand the first thing about baseball. I’m just teeing Frankie up for Skip Bayless and Jay Mariotti to really rip him.

  • 32 kileymcd // Apr 23, 2008 at 7:33 am

    Mike R,
    Don’t see Raben falling that far, but I guess it is possible. I’d say more of a 8-15 spot for him. Look for the Yankees to target highest upside with realistic chance of reaching it–they want to draft Yankees, not guys to trade for Johan Santana.

    Jared,
    Don’t think Alonso lasts that long, I’d have him in the 5-13 range. Seems like Logan White likes his prep arms and does a pretty good job picking them. But he’s a smart guy that goes BPA, so it’s unfair to say that he just takes a certain kind of guy, it’s just fallen that way for him lately. Along with the 3 prep arm I mentioned in the last comment, I’ll toss in California prep OF/RHP (probably OF) Aaron Hicks.

    Mike R,
    Kyle Long had 1st round buzz based on his tools, but most teams think his FSU football commitment and bloodlines means he’ll go to college and see how it shakes out with both sports. He’s got some crazy raw talent, though.

  • 33 John // Apr 23, 2008 at 10:42 am

    Kiley: I have to disagree that Marrero’s not an elite bat, at least for his age. He was named the top hitting prospect in both leagues he played in last season despite being 18/19. I believe he was very close to leading the South Atlantic league in homers and RBIs when he was promoted and that’s despite a slow start.

    Eric Hosmer said he’s by far the best hitter he’s seen for his age. https://www.conorglassey.com/Blog/2008/04/17/InterviewWithEricHosmer.aspx

    Though I don’t have any links, the Nats have so very good talent evaluators(Mike Rizzo and Mosse Stubing among others) that have said glowing things about him as a hitter as well.

    I’m not saying you’re wrong that they won’t take a 1B, but I do know they think very, very highly of Marrero and I can’t believe his position won’t be a factor in their thinking.

  • 34 Mike R. // Apr 23, 2008 at 10:43 am

    Kiley:

    Thanks for the great information. I initially started visiting the site because of Frankie, but you have quickly won me over. Have you two given consideration to creating a PTI style Web Show focused on scouting reports, mock drafts, draft analysis, top prospect lists, etc. (I have a ton of ideas)? You guys have great chemistry and I think it could be a winning idea.

  • 35 kileymcd // Apr 23, 2008 at 2:40 pm

    John,
    It’s really too early to say if Marrero is elite or not (Ian Stewart was even better at a tougher position at the same age/league situation). That wasn’t really what I meant, I just meant that Marrero can be moved, he could be Ian Stewart, he could be Albert Belle, but it isn’t clear yet, and he’s got positional flexibility. Maybe he is an elite bat now—I’m not convinced yet—but I was referring to the peripheral issues. And I think he went to 1B to get him to the bigs with a crowded OF, rather than him not being able to get by in LF. I think they take the best player at #9, and it’s probably a 1B.

    Mike R,
    That’s actually our new motto: “Come for Frankie, stay for Kiley.” We have a lot of ideas for content too, never really thought about a prospect dork web show. Would people watch that? Also, we live kinda far apart.

  • 36 Mike R. // Apr 23, 2008 at 2:49 pm

    Kiley:

    LOL. Love the motto.

    To answer your questions. I think that people would definitely watch. I’m not talking about an elaborate in studio show. My idea was basically a 15 minute back and forth on 4-8 prospects. If you have web cams you could both record from the comfort of your homes (White curtains behind you. Nobody wants to see your dirty clothes on the floor). You could have the segments via web conference. Each would record their part on your own PC, then it would just be a matter of splicing your rants, Frankie’s rants and scouting video.

    You can e-mail me if you want a more detailed logistical plan. I’d be glad to help in any way I can.

  • 37 Jared // Apr 24, 2008 at 2:06 am

    Thanks for your input, Kiley.

    I also don’t believe that Alonso will be around at #15 and I would be happy if the Dodgers took him. But White’s draft philosophy seems to dictate that prep pitchers are generally underrated by other clubs and there almost always seems to be one who slips that fits his mold (clean arm action, plus secondary pitch, projectability). I’d bet that Kyle Lobstein and Brett DeVall are near the top of his short list.

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  • 41 John // Jun 3, 2008 at 1:19 pm

    I can’t believe Frankie has the Reds passing on Matusz. He is the perfect player we need. We have an all righty pitching rotation & need a LHP. I believe Matusz is the best pitcher in the draft. If we pass on him, I’m going to be mad.

    Also, Joey Votto is here to stay. No one will be replacing him, as he looks like he will develop into a very, very good player. No 1B is worth drafting with Votto on our roster.

    To anyone making mocks… The Reds don’t need OF, C, 1B, or 2B. Unless they are by far BPA, don’t give us those positions.

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