So for anyone still checking in out there, check out my stuff at mlb.fanhouse.com.  We’re doing some MLB analysis right now, but starting after the playoffs we’ll have first hand scouting reports and prospect stuff galore.  I’ll be scouting all the big events and minor league action; it’s really gonna be what SaberScouting had except on a much much larger, full scale.  If you liked what we had here, come on over and check it out.

Thanks for reading,

Frankie Piliere

After a number of conversations with scouts, club sources, and industry insiders, it’s time for the first full presentation of the SaberScouting High School Hot 30 for the 2009 draft.

We’ve already gone over the top 5 prep players for the ‘09 draft in about as much detail as possible at this juncture, and now the rest of the top talents will be covered, including an intriguing shortstop/right hander from Tampa’s Plant High, Mychal Givens, pictured right. Check out the new index for our ‘09 coverage and stay tuned for our college draft coverage coming soon.

As the ‘09 draft crop is coming into focus with a multitude of high school showcases, the rising senior class is being put under a microscope. That being said, when the top players in the country convene, every now and then, a top underclassmen catches the scouting community’s eye, and that right now, that player is Bryce Harper.

As chronicled by Jonathan Mayo for MLB.com, Perfect Game, and Baseball America, Las Vegas HS catcher Bryce Harper is considered by many to possibly be the top high school prospect in America, including the recent 2008 draft class.

Now, this isn’t unprecedented, as elite amateur toolboxes like Scott Kazmir, Michael Main, Cameron Maybin, Kyle Drabek, and Eric Hosmer were highly-regarded by scouts early in their high school careers and were closely followed in their junior seasons. The thing that distinguishes Harper from even that elite group is that he’s 15 years old and just finished his freshman season of high school baseball.

Harper now rivals Justin Upton as the youngest domestic buzz prospect in recent memory. Some would submit other names from an earlier generation to the discussion, such as Darryl Strawberry (1st overall out of HS in ‘80 draft) and Harold Baines (1st overall out of HS in ‘77 draft).

Where am I going with this story? Not really sure, but if you’re checking in to read the Hot 30, I’m sure you wanted to know about Bryce Harper. Check out the top 30 and two bonus prospects after the jump…

A couple notes before we get started:

Until I get some of my videos up of a few of these top guys from the Hot 30, these players are largely mysteries to you, the reader, despite all the information we’re reporting. Well, don’t worry, all of these top 5 players, and over half of our top 30 will be at the AFLAC All-American game on August 9th, at 3 PM Eastern on Fox Sports Net. Click here to see the full rosters and learn more about the event.

This top 30 is populated mostly of players that are showcase regulars, as they are the ones that have been seen most often. So, when the full list comes out, you’ll see lots of California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas players, and almost no one that hasn’t been to some kind of showcase this summer; that’s just the way it is with scouts focusing almost exclusively on seniors this past spring.

So, some players that go high in the draft (like 34th overall pick in the ‘08 draft, Zach Collier) don’t go to showcases at all and the only time it hurts them is in very early rankings such as these. Early apologies to such players.

Now for the irresponsibly early stab at ranking some teenagers’ baseball abilities…

1. Tyler Matzek, LHP
School & Hometown: Capistrano Valley HS; Mission Viejo, CA
Specs: 6′3, 185, Bats L, Throws L
Skinny: The classic projectable high school arm with the unclassic combination of now stuff, three pitches, projection, command, and left-handedness. Covered in depth in the top 5 breakdown.

2. Austin Maddox, C
School & Hometown: Eagle’s View Academy; Jacksonville, FL
Specs: 6′4, 220, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Elite catching prospect showcases a plus-plus arm behind the plate and massive power with the stick belied by a durable frame and advanced hitting and receiving skills. Covered in depth in the top 5 breakdown. Florida commit.

3. Matt Purke, LHP
School & Hometown: Klein HS; Spring, TX
Specs: 6′3, 170, Bats L, Throws L
Skinny: Projectable power lefty with a filthy fastball-slider combo and inevitable Scott Kazmir comparisons is a little raw but dominates high school hitters. Covered in depth in the top 5 breakdown.

4. Donavan Tate, CF
School & Hometown: Cartersville HS; Cartersville, GA
Specs: 6′3, 200, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Owner of a staggering amount of tools, Tate boasts 80 speed, a 70+ arm, and 60+ defense and power with flashes of plus hitting ability. The downside is that he also shows flashes of an overpaid future .185 hitter in rookie ball. Covered in depth in the top 5 breakdown.

5. Jacob Turner, RHP
School & Hometown: Westminster Christian HS; Saint Charles, MO
Specs: 6′4, 220, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Relatively polished prep arm with a safe profile backed by a solid track record, durable frame, low 90s fastball, above-average breaking ball, good changeup, and advanced command. Covered in depth in the top 5 breakdown.

6. Max Stassi, C
School & Hometown: Yuba City HS; Yuba City, CA
Specs: 5′10, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: A polished, all-around backstop that lacks the frame and power scouts look for behind the plate, but shows solid gap pop, an above-average bat, and is an above-average defender with a plus arm. Stassi has really raised his profile on the showcase circuit into a legitimate top 2 rounder. UCLA commit.

SPOTLIGHT PROSPECT

7. Mychal Givens, RHP/SS
School & Hometown: Plant HS; Tampa, FL
Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Scouting Report: Givens is a bit of a conundrum to scouts at this admittedly very early juncture of the draft process. You can take a look at some video I took of Givens and what I thought of him from my first two looks. I originally compared him to current Jays prospect and former prep shortstop Justin Jackson. He’s an athletic and heady leader, a very good defender, and has a solid stroke with a little pop. I just didn’t see enough size/projection (looks in person like 5′10, 175), power, or consistent hitability to project him as a first round pick, but realized that his track record, makeup, and performance give him upward mobility on draft boards.

What I saw at the end of his junior season still seems to be the rap on Givens for most scouts, as he’s got all the makings of a top pick, but lacks a standout bat. Don’t get me wrong, that could still be a seven figure package in the sandwich round, like Jackson was, but others feel Givens is all projection at the plate and more of a third round pick as a shortstop and prefer him on the mound.

I discounted Givens’ long-term mound prospects in my earlier look, but it turns out he was fatigued when I saw him and has raised him arm angle a bit as well. At the PG National showcase, he was up to 94 while flashing an above-average slider and changeup from a low 3/4 arm angle; similar to what I saw, but showing improvement across the board. As it stands now, there’s a slight lean from the people I’ve talked to for Givens to stay on the mound, but his progess on the mound and at the plate should be an interesting draft storyline to monitor.

8. Luke Bailey, C
School & Hometown: Troup HS; LaGrange, GA
Specs: 6′0, 195, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Yet another big-time prep catcher has huge raw power, solid receiving skills, and an above-average arm. Bailey is ranked lower than Maddox and Stassi because doesn’t have the same kind of hitability, but he’s in the discussion as the best in a very deep crop of catchers.

9. Zach Wheeler, RHP
School & Hometown: East Paulding HS; Dallas, GA
Specs: 6′4, 180, Bats S, Throws R
Skinny: Pitched at 90-93 at the PG National Showcase and showed good command of three pitches. As the height/weight suggests, Wheeler has a good amount of projection left, and with good stuff, good command, and an easy motion, he has all the makings of a top prospect.

10. LeVon Washington, CF/2B
School & Hometown: Buchholz HS; Gainesville, FL
Specs: 5′10, 170, Bats L, Throws R
Skinny: Washington put up a 6.21 60-yard in front of hundreds of top-level eyeballs at the PG National Showcase and I pause to call his speed 80 because he’s a full grade or two off the scale. Split the difference and call it 85 speed. He’s polished on the basepaths but a little raw in the field and at the plate with solid pop, but Washington’s wheels cover a multitude of sins, both on offense and defense. He plays shortstop for his high school team and has an above-average arm, but he’s normally a centerfielder at showcases and has tried his hand at second base as well, which elicits obvious Luis Castillo comparisons. Check out a recent BA profile for more about Washington. Florida commit.

11. Chad Thompson, RHP
School & Hometown: El Toro HS; Trabuco Canyon, CA
Specs: 6′8, 215, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: The position and height tells most of the story here, as Thompson is a towering right-hander with good downward plane that has hit 94. He’s still raw, but has a clean arm and smooth delivery; if he can clean up the secondary pitches and command, he should shoot up draft boards.

12. Chris Jenkins, RHP
School & Hometown: Westfield HS; Westfield, NJ
Specs: 6′7, 225, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Our next towering right-hander hails from New Jersey and has showed some dirty stuff at times. He obviously has the body and downward plane scouts are looking for and was up to 97 last spring and has topped out at 94 on the showcase circuit. He shows a hard slider that could be an out-pitch and has a clean arm, but his stuff varies from appearance to appearance and one insider said that he’s the, “worst athlete I’ve ever seen.” That being said, bigger guys take longer to come around and Jenkins could really take a step forward in the spring.

13. Bobby Borchering, 3B
School & Hometown: Bishop Verot HS; Alva, FL
Specs: 6′4, 190, Bats B, Throws R
Skinny: Borchering has also been covered on SaberScouting in the past and has an intriguing set of tools and projection. He currently plays third base and has an above-average arm, but Borchering’s frame has a lot of projection left and that may ultimately force a move to first base as he fills out. He profiles well there, as he’s got a smooth swing from both sides with advanced hitability from both sides, plus power that already shows up in games, a showcase track record, and solid athleticism. Florida commit.

14. Jonathan Singleton, 1B
School & Hometown: Millikan HS; Long Beach, CA
Specs: 6′2, 220, Bats L, Throws L
Skinny: Singleton is a big, left-handed, power-hitting first baseman that put on a show at the PG National Showcase HR Derby, winning he contest while hitting a number of balls in the upper deck at the MetroDome. Singleton has also shown some solid hitability and athleticism, but make no mistake; his lefty power is his calling card and his meal ticket.

15. David Nick, SS
School & Hometown: Cypress HS; Cypress, CA
Specs: 6′2, 175, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Nick isn’t a toolbox like many highly-regarded prep shortstops, he’s more of a solid all-around player with polish, but he’s got some upside too. From a projectable 6′2 frame, Nick shows a very good bat with gap power and high-level defense. Scouts love his makeup, all-out style, and how the game comes easily to him. UCLA commit.

16. Jacob Morris, CF
School & Hometown: Coppell HS; Coppell, TX
Specs: 6′3, 195, Bats B, Throws R
Skinny: Morris is a tooled-up switch-hitter ones scout called an, “antelope,” that can play anywhere on the field, but that has kept him from finding a defensive home. He has the potential to be ranked higher come next June if he can show a better approach, as he struggled to make contact, particularly from the left side, on the showcase circuit. It appears his plus tools will play the best, and quickest, in center field, as a sort of poor man’s Donavan Tate.

17. Andrew Susac, C
School & Hometown: Jesuit HS; Roseville, CA
Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Susac heads up the second tier of what is shaping up to be an outstanding prep catching class. He has shown an above-average arm and at least average defense along with above-average raw power, a package that many piqued the interest of many scouts. Susac also shows an ability to hit with wood against elite pitching, but his bat lacks polish and he lacks the big-time tools of the backstops ahead of him. He projects as a top three rounds prospect. Oregon State commit.

18. Scooter Gennett, SS/RHP
School & Hometown: Sarasota HS; Sarasota, FL
Specs: 5′10, 170, Bats L, Throws R
Skinny: Gennett is the heir apparent to Casey Kelly’s spot as starting shortstop and ace for the powerhouse Sarasota Sailors. Gennett has three pitches he can throw for strikes including a low 90’s fastball but has a future as a hitter in the middle of the diamond. It’s not clear yet if he’s a long-term shortstop, second base, or center fielder, but his tools will play almost anywhere. Scooter (his given name is Ryan) swings a mean left-handed bat with surprising pull power for his size and a solid approach. He has good makeup and all-around baseball instincts with quick feet and an above-average arm. Florida State commit.

19. Jacob Marisnick, CF
School & Hometown: Riverside Poly HS; Riverside, CA
Specs: 6′4, 200, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Marisnick is a big athlete from southern California with some serious tools that is still rough around the edges. He has above-average speed in a 6′4, 200 pound frame that can play in center field for now with an above-average arm. His bat from the right side impresses at times and his power approach is projectable as an above-average big league regular and first round pick if his hitability and pitch selection can progress. Scouts dream on his projectable, near ideal frame and also on his flashes of big power and hitability in BP sessions.

20. Keyvius Sampson, RHP
School & Hometown: Forest HS; Ocala, FL
Specs: 6′1, 180, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Sampson was being touted as an athletic center field prospect during his junior season, but now is being considered primarily as a polished right-hander. Sampson carries himself like a pro and commands his 90-92 mph fastball to both sides of the plate. He also has a particularly smooth delivery with easy velocity and plus athleticism. Sampson’s secondary stuff and size come up a little short and that limits his upside, but he’s got just about everything else going for him.

21. Matthew Moynihan, CF
School & Hometown: Cathedral Catholic HS; San Diego, CA
Specs: 6′2, 205, Bats L, Throws, R
Skinny: Moynihan frequently gets comparisons to fellow SoCal toolsy outfielder Jacob Marisnick for their centerfield tools and wide skillset. Moynihan is a plus runner and above-average defender in center with an average arm. He also swings a solid, consistent bat from the left side and his strong, 6′2, 205 pound frame figures to show more game power in time.

22. Brooks Pounders, 1B/RHP
School & Hometown: Temecula Valley HS; Temecula, CA
Specs: 6′5, 220, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Pounders is a well-known two-way prospect with pro potential as both a hitter and pitcher. On the mound, he’s been working from 88-92 with an above-average slider and curve. As a hitter, he has dropped some serious bombs on the showcase circuit in the past few months. While he’s athletic for his size, Pounders’ body is a little soft, he lacks some feel on the mound, and can get pull-happy at the plate. Scouts tend to prefer his power bat over his solid stuff on the mound. Southern Cal commit.

23. Daniel Tuttle, RHP
School & Hometown: Randleman HS; Randleman, NC
Specs: 6′2, 185, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Tuttle is another solid right-handed pitching prospect that has impressed scouts during showcase season. He works at 90-92 and has been up to 93 with a clean arm and solid command. Tuttle also uses a quality curveball but has a head tilt that is unconventional and worries some, despite solid mechanics otherwise. Tuttle also has limited height and bulk, but does have projection remaining.

24. Beau Wright, LHP
School & Hometown: Los Alamitos HS; Los Alamitos, CA
Specs: 6′2, 205, Bats L, Throws L
Skinny: Wright is a solid left-hander from southern California that has been blowing away high school hitters at recent showcases with solid stuff and advanced command. Wright works at 89-92 mph with a big-breaking curveball and good feel for his craft. At this level, he doesn’t need much more than that, but he’ll need to continue to make progress to find his way into the top two rounds come June.

25. Mike Zunino, C
School & Hometown: Mariner HS; Cape Coral, FL
Specs: 6′2, 185, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Zunino has been known for some time as a top catching prospect for his advanced catch-and-throw skills and instincts along with his bloodlines: his father is an southern Florida area scout. Many still question Zunino’s long-term hitability, but everyone likes his makeup, showcase track record, professional frame, solid pop, and above-average defensive tools. Florida commit.

26. Matt Davidson, 3B
School & Hometown: Yucaipa HS, Yucaipa, CA
Specs: 6′3, 210, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Davidson is a southern California power/power prospect with 90+ mph velocity on the mound and thump in his bat at a corner position. He has a sturdy, solid frame that creates big power but will limit him to a corner position, possibly catcher. Davidson is a better prospect as a high-ceiling power bat, despite some questions about his general athleticism and present ability to make contact against top competition. Southern Cal commit.

27. Madison Younginer, RHP
School & Hometown: Mauldin HS; Simpsonville, SC
Specs: 6′3, 190, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Younginer is a very projectable right-handed power arm. He’s been working at 91-94, with a hammer curve at 75-78, both above-average offerings when he commands them. That’s the problem, though: Younginer has some trouble harnessing his stuff. His pure stuff, relatively calm mechanics, clean arm action, and projectable frame all bode well for his future.

28. Matt Hobgood, RHP
School & Hometown: Norco HS; Norco, CA
Specs: 6′4, 245, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Hobgood caught scouts’ attention at recent showcases in similar fashion to Younginer: with big stuff and a lack of contol. Hobgood has worked from 91-95, depending on whether he’s working with a power sinker or trying to top out a four-seamer for the radar guns. With either approach, he hasn’t been hitting spots too often and had trouble locating his offspeed pitches. There’s a lack of feel, some effort in the delivery, and some softness in his body, but the pure power stuff and workhorse frame are there.

29. Chad Kettler, 2B/3B
School & Hometown: Coppell HS; Coppell, TX
Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats B, Throws R
Skinny: Kettler is a versatile infielder with an impressive switch-hitting stroke. He plays shortstop currently, but won’t stick there long-term due to below-average speed. Second base is the best profile as he has solid defensive actions and plenty of arm for any position. Kettler’s meal ticket is his hitting ability from both sides, and while he has some pop, his frame limits more than average power. There may be some questions about Kettler’s ultimate position, but he’s on the list because he can hit, he can play the infield, and he’s an instinctual baseball rat.

30. Deven Marrero, SS
School & Hometown: American Heritage HS; Davie, FL
Specs: 6′0, 160, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Marrero is the younger brother of Nationals top prospect and former 1st rounder Chris Marrero. He also plays for 2008 High School National Champions American Heritage High. With that kind of pedigree and background, along with a gamer style and solid makeup, you can see what there is to like about Marrero. That being said, he lacks bulk and doesn’t have a standout bat, along with no more than average speed. He looks to most scouts right now like a good college player with rock solid intangibles. That type of player’s draft fortunes depends on his bonus demands, but he looks a lot like a guy that will go in the top three rounds after a solid three years in college.

Bonus Prospects
Matt Graham, RHP
School & Hometown: Oak Ridge HS; Spring, TX
Specs: 6′3, 195, Bats R, Throws R
Skinny: Graham was one of the top five prep prospects in this class just a few months ago, as the next star pupil from guru Ron Wolforth’s academy that has already produced Scott Kazmir. Since then, he finished his junior season and pitched in some early showcases and his normal low-to-mid 90’s heater was in the 85-88 mph range and his stuff was down across the board. He doesn’t appear to be hurt, because he’s still pitching and visually looks fine. It may just be dead arm or something he needs to work through, and no one really knows what to make of him right now. If Graham can regain his prior form, he would jump into the top 5.

Richard Stock, C
School & Hometown: Agoura HS; Agoura Hills, CA
Specs: 6′3, 185, Bats L, Throws R
Skinny: Richard is the brother of current USC catcher and former high school showcase legend Robert Stock. Entering the season, much was known about Robert, and almost nothing about Richard. The younger brother has recently come on the scene and has caught some eyes. Accounts on his talent are few and far between at this point, but BA’s Dave Perkin is securely in the optimistic camp. Watch out for him to possibly shoot up this list in short order.

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

We’re a little over a month past the 2008 draft and, if you think like we think, you can’t help but demand early rankings for the 2009 draft. You’re sick, but don’t worry, we’ve been talking to our scouting contacts, and we’re here for you.

I’ll be unveiling our top 30 high school players this week—the first five from that list will be unveiled in this article—and we’ll be using the same approach and style of content we had for the 2008 draft, but this time with a full year of momentum behind it.

We’ll soon follow with the balance of the high school list, a college list, in-person Cape Cod League updates from Frankie, and we will keep these lists updated continually, with links on the top of the site, and we’ll publish full update posts as soon as we get a hearty enough batch of updates to warrant a post.

As for the 2009 crop of high school talent, it is definitely early, but it appears to be a solid group. The top-end prep talent falls in between the extremes of the past two drafts: the relatively weak 2008 draft (9 first-rounders), following a superior crop of elite talents in 2007 (17 first-rounders, 11 of the top 18 picks).

The headliners of the 2009 class are a pair of power lefties: Texas-bred Matt Purke and southern California hurler Tyler Matzek. Another storyline is the extremely strong prep catching ranks, led by Florida prep talent Austin Maddox (pictured right), with six backstops in the Hot 30, and five in the top 20.

There’s also a tooled-up, dual-sport centerfielder with pro bloodlines in Georgia prep standout CF Donavan Tate, son of former-NFL running back Lars Tate, top football recruit, and owner of plus tools across the board.

In short (and you thought I couldn’t do that!), there’s a little bit for everyone, and I’ll include some graphics to spruce things up so long as no one says “market inefficiency” or “Moneyball” in the comments. Come on in and devour the obscenely early and irresponsible projections in a first look at the top 5 of the SaberScouting High School Hot 30, all after the jump…

Until I get some of my videos up of a few of these top guys from the Hot 30, these players are largely mysteries to you, the reader, despite all the information we’re reporting. Well, don’t worry, all of these top 5 players, and over half of our top 30 will be at the AFLAC All-American game on August 9th, at 3 PM Eastern on Fox Sports Net. Click here to see the full rosters and learn more about the event.

A note about the rankings: at this point, the top four players are all tightly packed and you could really put them in any order. Not to say Jacob Turner is chopped liver, but the top four players have separated themselves from the pack thus far.

This top 30 is populated mostly of players that are showcase regulars, as they are the ones that have been seen most often. So, when the full list comes out, you’ll see lots of California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas players, and almost no one that hasn’t been to some kind of showcase this summer; that’s just the way it is with scouts focusing almost exclusively on seniors this past spring.

Some players that go high in the draft (like 34th overall pick in the ‘08 draft, Zach Collier) don’t go to showcases at all and the only time it hurts them is in very early rankings such as these. Early apologies to such players.

Matzek was relatively little known entering showcase season, but has been at every major event and has been the biggest riser, as most of our top 10-15 were known elite players before their showcase performances.

Baseball America’s Dave Perkin compared Matzek (subscriber only) to the Royals sandwich pick (36th overall) in the recent 2008 draft, Mike Montgomery, and Perkin is certainly onto something there, with a lot of similarities between these two projectable, three-pitch, southern California lefties. That being said, Matzek is this high on the list (and at the top of some insider’s lists) because he has a notch better stuff, with three pitches that project for above-average, without lacking command or projectability.

Matzek works at 89-92, touching 94 with a heavy fastball and mixing in a knockout mid-70s curveball. His curveball is a two-plane bender that is regularly above-average now with a chance to be a plus pitch. He also mixes in solid slider and shows feel for a changeup that flashes above-average.

He’s projectable and athletic with a clean arm and simple delivery, throwing from a classic high 3/4 arm angle. That allows Matzek to work both sides of the plate effectively, pounding the zone with advanced feel. He’s got four pitches and command that project for average or better; there’s just a lot to like. One insider said Matzek reminded him of another lefty: the 4th overall pick of the 2008 draft, former U. San Diego hurler and Orioles draftee, Brian Matusz.

One scout that saw Matzek at the Perfect Game National showcase in Minneapolis said, “if his breaking ball develops like you hope, he could be Clayton Kershaw.” That might sound a bit optimistic, and that I’m using too many comparisons, but considering how under-the-radar Kershaw was entering his senior year, it doesn’t seem so far-fetched (Matzek photo: Perfect Game)

I’ve talked about Maddox a few times on the site, both in the 2009 draft preview on the podcast (near the end) and in a review of the Sarasota Classic. I’ve been able to see Maddox a handful of times during his junior season, including seeing his team win the state championship in Sarasota, and he brings his full toolbox to the yard every time out. I also have some video I’ll post soon.

Maddox’s stance (check the above picture for an idea) and swing are reminiscent of Mark McGwire due to his powerful, leveraged, yet compact right-handed stroke with serious bat speed. Maddox just squares balls up, hitting over .500 this year against top competition, and has flashed his plus-plus raw power in every game I’ve seen him play. The scouting community, who largely ignore juniors during the regular season, saw this power when Maddox hit multiple homers over 400 feet with wood bats in recent national showcases.

That being said, Maddox is the top position player on this list because of his defensive tools. He consistently uses his plus-plus howitzer to register pop times under 1.85 and has been under 1.80, while hitting 95 on the mound. He also has what I, and a few scouts I’ve talked to, feel is already big league average receiving and blocking skills. Maddox is also a hard worker that gets high marks for his makeup; he’s committed to Florida.

The only real question with Maddox is if his already extra-large frame will be able to stay agile enough to remain behind the plate. Some may knock his team’s schedule, as they are in the smallest classification (1A) in the state and play some cream puff teams, but intentionally schedule almost every other game against top competition, and Maddox is a showcase veteran that can hit with wood. A scout familiar with Maddox sums it up: “We have him as a top follow and I see a Mike Piazza package, except with a cannon behind the plate.”

As you might expect from a top player on this list, Purke has all the classic things you look for in a pitching prospect. He’s the next in a seemingly never-ending line of physical, aggressive power arms from the Lonestar State, hitting 94 in a recent showcase.

Working with a clean arm and near effortless delivery from a 3/4 arm angle, Purke pounds the zone with three solid pitches, good command, and an aggressive approach. He owns a present solid-average fastball that sits at 90-92 with some late life, but has hit 94 and projects to add a few ticks as his slim frame bulks up. Purke throws a two-plane slider with good tilt and late bite to gets funny swings from high school hitters now, and projects as an out-pitch. He also mixes in a solid changeup, though only sparingly as he relies heavily on his fastball/slider combination.

As for the downside, like many young power pitchers, he can lose his mechanics at times, and like many frequent showcase attendees, his velocity, breaking ball, and feel can vary from appearance to appearancde due to fatigue; but that’s about all.

Those aren’t huge concerns, and clearly doesn’t effect scouts perception of him: “He’s a projectable, velocity left-hander with a hard slider and just blows hitters away at these showcases. I’m a big fan.”

It’s easy to slap a Scott Kazmir comparison on him, given the similarities (skinny Texas prep lefty with a power fastball-slider combo), but Kazmir was a dominating showcase legend that Purke hasn’t yet proven to be, though he has shown flashes and is the class of this year’s pitching crop along with Matzek. (Purke photo: Perfect Game)

If you’re reading about the draft this early, you like tools, and if you want a suggestion for a new James Bond villain, let me suggest Donavan Tate as Tools Galore. He compares favorably to the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, the Twins’ Aaron Hicks, as a centerfielder, both for his pros and cons.

Tate is the son of former NFL running back Lars Tate and is a top football recruit, with Rivals.com ranking him as the 86th best recruit in the nation. To get an idea of his athleticism, Rivals lists Tate as an “athlete” for football purposes (no set projected college position, generally the most athletic guys on the field) and among the “athletes,” (again, the most athletic football players in the country), Tate was named the most athletic.

Tate uses his plus-plus arm (hit 95 from the outfield—that’s with no mound involved) and true 80 speed (6.3 to 6.4 in the 60-yard) to quarterback his high school team, and uses his 6′3, 200 frame to deliver big hits as a safety. Michigan and Georgia want him as a QB, while USC and Florida like him as a safety. So, he’s got a little bit of talent.

As far as baseball-specific skills, his speed and arm obviously play in center where he’s a developing defender that should be plus or more as a center fielder in time. Tate shows plus raw power and squares pitches up consistently when he makes contact.

The problem, as with the aforementioned Hicks, is if he will make enough contact, as Tate has rough plate discipline. In showcases, Tate produces, but not without some cause for concern.  To put some numbers behind this general scouting consensus, BA’s Matt Blood reports that Tate slugged two HRs, a triple, and two doubles in 19 at-bats at the Tournament of Stars, but struck out six times with only one walk. Blood adds that one day, Tate made contact on seven of ten swings, while the next day he whiffed on six of seven swings.

That performance makes for an impressive line of .316/.350/.842, considering Tate is a high school junior using wood bats against top pitching; but almost any toolshed first-round bust has put up that kind of performance, so what did we really learn? Tate’s hitability will be a situation to monitor throughout the spring, but it will be something you can only learn about after talking to multiple scouts or after multiple viewings, and even then it will likely be heavily debated within each organization. Let the debate begin. (Tate photo: Rivals.com)

Turner has been on the radar screen for some time as a top arm for the 2009 draft, as a proven showcase veteran, and he did nothing to change that standing in the recent national showcases.

Owner of a prototypical power right-hander’s frame, Turner attacks hitters with three solid pitches, including a 90-94 mph fastball with solid sink. Turner’s velocity comes from a high 3/4 arm angle, and sneaks up on hitters due to a compact delivery and easy arm action.

Turner follows his above-average fastball with an above-average overhand curveball that can get slurvy with two-plane break. He also mixes in a solid changeup that shows some potential along with an aggressive approach to pitching, and solid command, made possible by Turner’s easy delivery.

There are a fair amount of scouts on the Jacob Turner bandwagon, as his lower-risk profile and outstanding showcase performances have some putting him ahead of Purke and even Matzek.

There’s also definite symmetry between Turner and the 2008 draft’s top Missouri prep arm, Tim Melville. Both are big-framed right-handers with three quality pitches, good feel, and a chance to be above-average to plus across the board. Melville is a little more projectable and athletic, but they have similar stuff, command, and lengthy showcase track records (Tuner photo: Perfect Game).

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We also had a little trouble fitting everything we said in the over hour long conversation into a 30 minute podcast, so some banter and a few questions got cut, but the best stuff is still around. We also realize the audio quality isn’t fantastic, we’re working to figure out a way to avoid compressing the file so much.

Let us know what you think about our first try at podcasting in the comments. Also, if you’re still desperate for draft answers, hit us in the comments or at mailbag@saberscouting.com for out take.

We opened up with Lupe Fiasco’s “Superstar,” for obvious and somewhat corny reasons: teams are drafting and we’re answering questions so we can find the next superstar. Some think it could be Yankees first rounder Gerrit Cole (pictured), and you can hear our thoughts from the embedded player below, and can check out some technical info after the jump…

(Gerrit Cole photo: Heston Quan)

So, the above is the player to listen to the podcast here on the page. If you’re a podcast listening junkie like me (Kiley, by the way), then you can add search for us on iTunes or add this feed to your podcast program (http://saberscouting.com/feed).

I think that covers most of the technical questions you guys might have about how to listen to this. If you have anymore, hit us up in the comments or just google your question, since we’re not experts either.

Podcast Download Link

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

It’s been a while since we talked about PTO%. Isn’t it ironic that the first article I am doing after a long stretch of a busy scouting schedule is statistical in nature?

For those unfamiliar, it is a tool we developed that we believe is a measure of dominance or “ace hood.” Also, we’ve taken the same principles and applied them to hitters. As far as I can tell, it will not serve as an all encompassing statistic for hitters like it seems to be for pitcher.

By simply measuring the percentage of pitches that go towards outs and strikeouts (lower being better for hitters) we can’t know how effective his power is or other aspects of that nature. What I can tell us, however, is how “tough” an out the hitter is.

Just as with a pitcher who has a very low PTO% is someone who is laboring to get his outs, a hitter with a low PTO% is someone who is making a pitcher labor. Makes, sense right?

Now, let’s take a look at 2008’s most dominant pitchers (John Lackey, right, is leading the way among starters) and toughest outs in the league at the midway point of the season, all after the jump…

(John Lackey photo: Steve Nesius/AP)

Pitching stats are as of July 7th, hitting stats as of July 1st.

Top Starters
John Lackey - 33.7%
Roy Halladay - 32.7%
Rich Harden - 32.6%
Josh Beckett - 32.1%
Shawn Marcum - 32.0%
Cole Hamels - 31.8%
James Shields - 31.7%
C.C. Sabathia - 31.6%
Brandon Webb - 31.4%
Tim Lincecum - 31.4%
Felix Hernandez - 31.2%
Johan Santana - 30.9%
Dan Haren - 30.8%
Cliff Lee - 30.7%
Ben Sheets - 30.5%
Ervin Santana - 30.4%
Chad Billingsley - 30.3%
Andrew Miller - 30.2%
Javier Vazquez - 30.1%
Jake Peavy - 30.1%
Edinson Volquez - 30.1%

Top Relievers
Mariano Rivera - 37.8%
Taylor Buchholz - 36.1%
Jonathan Papelbon - 36.0%
Kerry Wood - 35.9%
Hong-Chi Kuo - 34.1%
Joe Nathan - 33.9%
Carlos Marmol - 33.7%
Chad Qualls - 33.7%
Joakim Soria - 33.3%
Huston Street - 31.8%

Toughest Outs
Joe Mauer - 17.3%
Albert Pujols - 17.9%
Luis Castillo - 18.0%
Ryan Spilborghs - 18.6%
David Eckstein - 19.1%
Jeff Keppinger - 19.5%
Todd Helton - 20.0%
Russell Martin - 20.1%
Juan Pierre - 20.1%
Chipper Jones - 20.2%
Ramon Vazquez - 20.6%
Kosuke Fukudome - 20.7%
David DeJesus - 20.8%
Mark Ellis - 20.9%
Johnny Damon - 20.9%
Brian Giles - 20.9%
Dustin Pedroia - 21.0%
Ryan Theriot - 21.0%
Conor Jackson - 21.2%
Jason Kendall - 21.3%

Might this be the method we’ve been looking for to quantify “gritty hitters” or guys that “grind out at-bats”? I think it may be.

Just to review, this percentage is the percentage of pitches out of the total number of pitches seen that go towards outs. So, a player who strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk much will do poorly.

The ideal player is one who works the count, walks a lot, doesn’t strike out, fouls pitches off. This works in the opposite fashion that it does for the pitchers.

I’m being bold again, but I love where this stat could take us in terms of quantifying ambiguous terms like “gritty” or “tough out” or “ace”. I’d like to hear your thoughts.

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Today, we’re going to take a break from the draft and July 2nd signings and jump back into the prospect world with a scouting report of arguably the hottest young hitter in baseball, Rangers slugger Chris Davis.

In a great piece of timing, Davis hit a homerun last night in Yankee Stadium, to go along with a 3 homers and a 1.223 OPS in his first 19 big league at-bats.

This comes on the heels of Davis terrorizing AA this year to a tune of .333/.376/.618 and AAA at a clip of .291/.361/.527.

This success for the 22 year old first baseman is all the more surprising because Davis came from relative obscurity; drafted in the 50th round in 2004 by the Yankees, 35th round in 2005 by the Angels, and finally signing from a Texas JuCo as a 5th round pick of the Rangers in the 2006 draft.

In another break from the ordinary, we’re introducing a new guest writer to the fold for this breakdown, Lincoln Hamilton.

Lincoln is based in Texas and was able to catch Davis in action when he was at AA earlier in the season. Be sure to say hello to him in the comments and let him know what you think about the article.

Catch the full Chris Davis swing breakdown after the jump…

(Chris Davis photo: Charlie Riedel/AP)

I have four videos of Davis from batting practice:

Chris Davis has gone from relatively anonymous minor leaguer to one of the game’s most heralded prospects in short order. The Rangers’ hulking slugger has mashed all year and as a result has earned himself a trip to Arlington where he is now the team’s starting 1^st baseman until Hank Blalock is healthy - or in other words, for the foreseeable future.

Davis was drafted by the Yankees in the 50^th round of the 2004 draft but did not sign and elected to attend the University of Texas. However, before playing a game for the Longhorns, Davis left UT and went to star at one of the nation’s top JUCO programs, Navarro JC. After a productive season Davis was again selected, this time, by the Angles in the 35^th round. The two sides were unable to come to a contract agreement and in 2006 Davis was chosen for the third time in three years, in the 5^th round by Texas.

Physical Description: The left-handed Davis is listed at 6’4”, 235 pounds and is every bit of it. He’s built more like a NFL tight end than a baseball player – well proportioned musculature, large upper body, big arms. Put simply, Chris Davis is a big, strong kid.

Setup: Davis stands tall in the batter’s box with very slightly bent knees. His stance is rather short, with his legs not much more than shoulder width apart. He holds the bat even with his left ear at shoulder height.

As the pitcher goes into his windup, Davis drops his hands considerably to mid-torso level. Occasionally Davis will also move his hands away from his body in a sort of pendulum timing mechanism that adds length and loft to his swing which, in turn, leads to swings and misses.

Plate Discipline: This is an area of Davis’ game that needs to, and can, improve. Due to Davis’ production, he has yet to tally more than 400 at-bats in a single minor league stop. He has walked 7.8% of the time in 332 plate appearances (AA and AAA combined) in the 2008 minor league season, which is below average for a power-hitting first baseman. Davis, however, does have solid pitch recognition; his excellent bat-speed and short swing path allow him to let the ball travel deep in the zone. There are signs that he is becoming more discriminating at the plate, his walk percentage is up to 10.9% during a relatively short stint at Triple-A (128 PA).

Make no mistake about it; Chris Davis goes up to the plate looking to hit the ball a long way.

Head Movement: His head very still, only moving downward slightly to focus on the ball as it approaches home plate and forward a tiny bit as his weight shifts.

Lower Half/Stride: The first thing that really stood out to me when watching Davis bat was his hips. He generates remarkable rotational velocity with his hips which, more so than his strong upper body, is where his power comes from. A lot of guys are strong but don’t have much power, and some guys have good power but aren’t that strong. Chris Davis is both strong and powerful.

He takes a relatively small stride, which helps him maintain good balance and proper tempo during his weight shift, and opens his front side slightly. There is a slight tendency for Davis to open up too much on his front side. He, occasionally, rotates his front foot almost 90 degrees and steps closer to first base which leads to his bat being in the zone less and an inability to cover the outside corner.

Swing Path: When all goes well Davis has a short, quick stroke that generates lots of loft and leads to long fly balls – many of which land past fences that are set up before the game. During his load Davis raises the bat until it is almost perpendicular to the ground; he then drops the barrel of the bat in a hurry and manages to get good extension on everything that’s not right in on his hands. When his hands move a little too much or he gets a little too eager and opens up his front side too much, Davis is prone to swinging and missing. Overall, there is a lot to like as his problems are correctable with good coaching and practice.

Statistics: Perhaps the best thing about Davis’ production in the minors is that he continues to improve with each stop.

Chris Davis is arguably the minor’s most productive player to date. While his Double-A stint this year was buoyed by an unsustainably high average on balls in play, his AAA numbers are just as good as they look on the surface – any boost he gets from playing in a hitters park, in a hitters league is just about counterbalanced by the fact that Davis is just 22 years old and putting up those numbers as one of the younger players at the level.

His Isolated Power (IsoP) points to extreme power potential and his 2008 line drive rates are off-the-charts good. More proof that he hits the ball really hard and far.

Unfortunately Davis’ statistical record isn’t all triple-crown glory and BIP data excellence. Davis has struck out in more than 21% of his plate appearances in each and every minor league stop, so far. His inability to make contact at lower levels of competition, lead one to wonder about his ability to do so at the highest level. Strikeout percentages of 21-24% do not destine a player to languish in Quadruple-A obscurity, but they do limit the upside of any player.

Summary: Good things happen when Chris Davis hits a baseball. Davis carries himself with the poise of a veteran player. He has a confidence and focus about his game that doesn’t seem to wane. Unfortunately, his relatively low walk rates and high strikeout rates added with the fact that he offers very little benefit in terms of defense or base running limit him from being in the truly elite level of players. The power is real, and you could see Davis posting 35 to 40+ home runs seasons and giving opposing pitchers reason to pause when thinking about pitching around Josh Hamilton.

Scouting Grades
Batting: 45/55
Power: 60/70
Arm: 55/55
Defense: 45/50
Running: 40/40

MLB Projection
Batting Order Projection: #4 or #5 hitter
Statistical Projection: .280/.340/.550

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There has been intrigue, rumors, and large amounts of money flying around with the opening of the signing period for nearly all of the top 16 year olds in Latin America beginning this morning.

Some scouts and agents started posting in the comments of the scouting reports article and 100 comments later, it turned into a liveblog of sorts of international rumors and facts. It’s still a comments section, so take it with a grain of salt, but there’s some good stuff in there.

ESPN Deportes broke the story that both the Rangers and Reds offered $5 million to Michel Inoa, but he stuck with the A’s offer of $4.25 million because of his comfort with their organization and confidence in their pitcher development system.

The Reds offered a $5 million big league deal and the Rangers went to $5.2 million in a standard minor league deal.

I had heard a few other teams involved on the high end of the Inoa sweepstakes, but the Reds and Rangers had the most buzz all along and now it’s clear why. This is proof that these teams are serious about Latin America, and also underlines a common July 2nd occurrence that I’ll touch on after the jump.

Read on for much more on these developments, and an early list of July 2nd signings after the jump…

EDIT: I’ve added some updated signings and bonus information.

(Michel Inoa photo credit: Victor Perez/ESPNDeportes.com)

Some notes on done deals, or at least the ones that have leaked out so far, beyond Inoa’s $4.25 million to Oakland:

ESPN Deportes tags a few signings on the end of the Inoa story:

- LHP Carlos Perez to Atlanta for $600,000
- SS Anderson Felix to the Yankees for $500,000
- RHP Pedro Martinez to San Diego for $150,000
- SS Jimmy De Los Santos to Atlanta for $100,000

Mentioned in the comments and later confirmed:

- 3B Gustavo Pierre to Toronto
- SS Jose Osoria to Cleveland for $575,000

Padres.com has a press release on the elite talent San Diego has locked up:

- RHP Adis Portillo, $2.2 million
- SS Alvaro Aristy
- RF Luis Domoromo, $1.2 million
- RHP Elvin Tavarez
- UT Corey Adamson

The Padres aren’t messing around, with a spanking new $8.5 million academy in the Dominican and getting some top talent on the first day of the open period. You can check the release for info on the players, like Adamson, who is from Australia and I have little information on.

Aristy, Domoromo, and Portillo were long rumored to be headed to the Padres and are covered in the international scouting reports article. Tavarez, and many of these other players, have bios in Enrique Rojas’ international preview for ESPN Deportes.

Hat tip to commenter Paul, who led me to the link and mentioned some numbers that have been rumored for the last few weeks, and I was able to confirm Portillo’s and Domoromo’s bonuses, while Aristy is strongly rumored to have signed for $1 million and Adamson is said to have been paid in the $500,000 range, but I wasn’t able to get a solid number for Tavarez.

Padres exec Paul DePodesta has his own thoughts on the Padres July 2nd signees at his blog.

The Yankees have also made their signees official:

- INF Giancarlo Arias
- C/3B Jackson Valera
- OF Ramon Flores
- SS Anderson Felix
- RF Yeico Calderon

As mentioned above, Felix was for $500,000, and all of these players were fringe seven figure talents that the Yankees locked up early in the process. While the bonuses aren’t clear yet for all of these players, it appears all five were for below-market, value-type deals between $500,000 and $900,000.

Calderon, Flores, and Arias have reports in the scouting reports article, but, in short, all are excellent hitters with corner player type skills, though Arias may stick at second base. Felix is a hitability shortstop with gap-to-gap power likely moving to second base, and Valera keeps with the theme as a very good bat with plus power but no clear position.

The Yankees focused on guys with high-probability bats that they were able to get at below-market prices, all in an exploding market. This is a dynamic I’ll touch in the next article as the teams that were ahead of the curve and spending a lot of money in Latin America for many years are now trying to find ways to get solid values in a crowded market.

The big market, established teams are the ones with the infrastructure in place to pull off something like the Yankees did; the experienced scouts, relationships, reputation, know-how, etc. Notice how none of the traditional Latin powers are on these big, seven-figure talents, that it’s all relatively new teams trying to make a name for themselves. I’m sure the Mariners, Braves, Red Sox, and Mets list of signees will look pretty similar to that Yankees list.

The Rangers would be considered by some to be a traditional power (others would say it’s the group listed aboce), but it’s not uncommon for players to take less money on July 2nd from a scout/team they are comfortable with, that have a track record with the player, reputation, and tradition. Every year, a team wanting to make a splash makes a late play for top players and gets rebuffed, it just doesn’t always make the papers. While sometimes the player/agent take the money, taking less money is more common than many fans may assume. This open market doesn’t necessarily work like the MLB free agent market, and that’s part of the intrigue.

In the same vein, some good players never get seen by these other teams and some big market teams will get a player for $100,000 that they would’ve paid up to $500,000 for. Obviously, that becomes less and less common by the day. The days seem to be over where teams get a discount because a player grew up wanting to play for them; the scout that knew them when they were 12 is the new best way to get a player for a good value, hence the rush by many teams in the last few years to get the infrastructure of the big market teams in place.

The Braves made two signings in Taiwan, hat tip to reader George L.:

- RHP Wei-Chen Huang for $125,000.
- C Meng-Hsiu Tsai for $100,000

Reported by the Taiwan Baseball Blog, Huang is an 18 year old righty at 6′0, 185 lbs with a fastball that tops out at 90, with a curve and change. Here are some pictures on his agent’s web site of his press conference

Also from the Taiwan Baseball Blog, Tsai is a 5′11, 190 pound that shows an above-average arm and reportedly had interest from the Red Sox, Twins, and Mariners, as well.

While I finish up the next article about the Latin market and bonuses, along with gathering more confirmed signings, take a look at the notes article I wrote to introduce the July 2nd signing period with some numbers and a general feel for the process.

We also have a number of Latin sources posting confirmed numbers in the comments for this article and the ones before it.  I can’t confirm all of these, but the commenters haven’t been proven wrong yet, so if you’re looking for news on your team, take a look.

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

SaberScouting has learned from MLB sources that Dominican right-handed pitching phenom Michel Inoa has agreed to a $4.25 million bonus with the Oakland A’s. The A’s have called a press conference to announce the signing of their new prize.

As covered in this scouting report, Inoa has proven himself to be a rare pitching talent and, as his talent would indicate, has the top bonus in Latin history to prove it, shattering the previous record of $2.44 million to Wily Mo Pena.

Inoa is a 6′7, 205 lb pitcher with a low 90’s fastball that reaches 95, along with good feel for a curveball and changeup with a projectable body and feel that is beyond his years, despite lacking top-level coaching and being only 16 years old.

He also comes from an athletic family, with a father that played in the minor leagues, and a mother that was a standout softball player.

Nearly every club with an international presence was interested in Inoa at the start. The bidding began in the low $2 million range and slowly rose throughout the spring and into the summer, with a small group of teams still interested with Inoa’s asking price well over $3 million.

The A’s stepped up and pushed the bidding past the $4 million barrier that no other team was willing to cross, and that proved to be enough to close the deal.

Stay tuned to SaberScouting for news on other July 2nd signings as they break.

(Michel Inoa photo credit: Victor Perez/ESPNDeportes.com)

Something you can look for as an ongoing theme for these scouting reports is that I’ll mention a prospect that’s mostly projection, that would get $500,000 to $750,000 in most years, but this year will get that price pushed up by $250,000 to $500,000, due to demand. The supply is good this year, with a strong crop of talent, but the demand, especially at the top of the talent scale, is higher.

I suppose at some point, when every top player has their perceived value boosted that much, the effect may not be teams overpaying, but that we’re just seeing the new market.

That would be the market correction that competition brings to offset the bargains that the old July 2nd market had; the bargains that enticed all the teams to open up shop in Latin America in the first place.

For an economic look at this phenomenon, check this article, and stay tuned for another article about it here in the next few days.

As mentioned in the opening for the Michel Inoa report, the competition for second best July 2nd prospect is between power-hitting right fielder Rafael Rodriguez and dynamic five-tool center fielder Yorman Rodriguez, who has drawn Carlos Beltran comparisons. Most (including myself) prefer Yorman Rodriguez, and in lieu of a picture of him, we’ll run a Beltran picture.

Read on for a breakdown of the rest of the top 15 Latin American prospects, along with one sleeper, and subtitles that are the color of money, all after the jump…

The traditional powers, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Mets, and Braves, seem to be in on all the big talents, while new major players I referenced in the last article include teams like the Padres, Royals, A’s, Reds, and Giants. There’s obviously still some teams just below the “major player” level that are doing good things and may make a splashy signing or two, but the focus in this article is on the top guys and major players.

So, Who Else Is Getting Paid?

2. Yorman Rodriguez, CF, Venezuela
Yorman Rodriguez has been touted as the top position player in this class for some time. His selling point is a rare combination plus-plus speed and plus-plus raw power. He’s a five-tool talent with an outstanding frame, athleticism, and defensive tools, but like most July 2nd hitting prospects, he gets a wide range of reviews on his ability to hit.

The common refrain on a raw bat are heard with Rodriguez: lunges at the ball, trouble identifying breaking pitches, trouble with high level stuff, questionable approach, and 5 o’clock power (batting practice only). Some players grow out of it, some never adjust, so the team that gets Rodriguez believes in his ability to make adjustments.

He has all the elements of a star centerfielder. He’s been compared to Miguel Cabrera for his powerful bat and Venezuelan bloodlines, but more athletic comparisons like Cesar Cedeno, Eric Davis, or a right-handed hitting Carlos Beltran seem more apt. That being said, Rodriguez, or any of the hitters below him, could go to the GCL and hit .180 for three seasons and make everyone look stupid, but those kind of comparisons let you know why teams will pay him and that the tools are for real.

There are rumors that since his agent has stopped shopping him around that a deal has been struck and the Reds are rumored to be that team—another team new to being a major player on the international scene, spending $2.0 million in March on 16 year old power-hitting OF Juan Duran, and have already spent $3-4 million this season on pre July 2nd prospects. The Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox, and Cardinals are all heavily interested and Rodriguez figures to get a bonus between $2.5 million and $3.0 million, which would top Miguel Cabrera’s $1.9 million bonus in 1999 as the highest in Venezuelan history.

3. Rafael Rodriguez, RF, Dominican Republic
The rumor that won’t die about Rodriguez is that the Giants have offered him a $2.5 million bonus and he’s stopped shopping himself with a deal already done. It does seem like $2.5 million is a little rich for Rodriguez versus industry perception (about $1.5 million), but there is a lot of competition for players at the top and if the Giants like him, giving a game-ending offer weeks before the deadline to lock him up is a sound strategy. He’ll be eligible to sign when he turns 16 on July 13th.

As for the tools, Rodriguez has a projectable 6′5, 200 lb frame that one international scouting director compared to Dave Winfield in BA’s breakdown of Rodriguez. His right-handed bat draws praise for it’s power to all fields and his raw strength but there are serious questions about hitability, approach, balance, loop in the swing, and ability to hit off-speed stuff. None of those things are abnormal for a 16 year old, but all of them in a package that will cost seven figures causes many to pause.

The bat speed, loft, big power, and athleticism are all there, so if you buy his makeup and ability to adjust, there’s a ton of raw ability to work with; it’s easy to see why the Giants would like him. It does sound like more teams than not think there’s a lot of Joel Guzman in there, too; none of the other stuff matters if he can’t hit, and that’s a legitimate question at this point.

4. Adis Portillo, RHP, Venezuela
Portillo is the consensus second-best pitcher in this year’s crop, and as mentioned in the July 2nd Notes article he is getting bid up due to the “didn’t get Inoa” effect. His profile is along the lines of most high-profile July 2nd pitchers: projectable body (6′3 with room for a lot of bulk), average now velocity (88-92), a feel for a curveball and changeup, a loose arm, and a workable delivery (though it has some effort). Like many other Latin prospects, scouts are sold on his frame due to big feet, hands, and fingers; a good indicator that a frame that will grow.

The downside was alluded to in the upside: he’s not polished and no one is really sure what his next 2-3 years of development will look like. Everything except his average velocity and projectable frame is below-average right now, including his control, which worries more than a few scouts. There also is an issue common with pitchers of Portillo’s profile: a disconnect between bullpen performance and game performance, similar to how young hitters having trouble converting BP power into games.

The team that likes Portillo the most will be banking (as usual) on his makeup and ability to improve as lots is needed before the upper levels of pro baseball. All those negatives said, Portillo is still an easy $500,000 prospect, and many would pay up to about $800,000, with a few likely willing to go to seven figures. The aforementioned affect could push Portillo as high as $2.0 million, the indicated asking price by some sources. The number that sounds more likely is $1.5 million, with teams like the Cubs, Mariners, Royals, Phillies, and Padres all in the mix, with San Diego the rumored landing spot—another new power on the Latin front.

5. Julio Morban, CF, Dominican Republic
Morban is more of a baseball player-type prospect than the above hitters, that are more star potential athletes. Morban swings a consistent bat from the left side and has above-average speed and solid athletic actions in center field packed into a compact 5′11, 178 pound frame.

Despite not owning a big, projectable frame, Morban has a bat that almost every Latin insider can buy, along with athleticism that brought projections of a million dollar bonus before the market jumped a few notches. Morban’s swing has some issues to be ironed out like any 16 year old’s swing would, but with advanced hitability, a sound approach, solid mechanics, and enough bat speed to create some power, he may own the safest bat in this class. He also sports an above-average arm and glove in center, and while some think he may add power and eventually move to right field, the profile is that of an everyday player either way.

The Mariners, Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees have been tied to Morban. Baseball America has a profile and a projection that jives with what I’ve heard: $1.1 to $1.2 million from the Mariners.

6. Luis Domoromo, OF, Venezuela
As mentioned above with Morban, Domoromo is a change of pace from the Rodriguez’s, as more of a baseball player, with a bat teams believe in to varying degrees, but projects for more of a solid-average everyday profile and will likely end up at a corner outfield position.

Some scouts say he’s a little mechanical and others think he has more of an average bat from the right side, but in comparison to the other bats on this list, being a little stiff and having a low-end projection of an average major league bat is a welcome relief for the risk averse. Domoromo has a solid frame that projects for plus power, and as you might expect, he is more of pull-oriented hitter that doesn’t always convert BP power into game situations. He has a smooth, fluid swing and emerging power, but won’t get big money due to the lack his lack of elite athleticism or star potential. He’s fine in the outfield given the profile and his arm seems good enough for right field to be a longterm fit.

Domoromo was described to me a few weeks ago as a low-upside player who would get about $700,000, and as you might expect, he’s heavily rumored, including in his BA profile, to sign for seven figures. BA suggests a deal is done with the Padres for $1.2 million, and that’s more conviction than I have about any of the rumors I’ve heard about Domoromo, so I’ll go with that.

The Borderline Millionaires

7. Yeico Calderon, RF, Dominican Republic
The Skinny: This is the first spot where a million dollar pay day isn’t assured, where rankings will diverge, and where information is both harder to come by, and harder to trust as smokescreens and misinformation are common at this juncture in the process.

Calderon is a power prospect with a potent bat from the left side and right field tools that have drawn Cliff Floyd comparisons. One source even said his tools are on par with Rafael Rodriguez, but with a bat from the left side, and with better hitability. Calderon can turn on good fastballs in game situations, but is a bit rough around the edges with a rudimentary approach and power primarily to his pull side. He is athletic enough to play right field and has a strong arm that may get him a seven figure pay day from the right team.

The Yankees are known to have interest, but from this point on, you probably won’t see a correct bonus/team prediction, and you could put any of the big Latin spending teams on any of the listed players and probably be right.

8. Alvaro Aristy, SS, Dominican Republic
Latin shortstops are a successful group as a whole, and sought-after commodity every July 2nd. The top one looks this year looks to be a 6′0, 165 pound, defense-first prospect in Alvaro Aristy.

Aristy has the best chance to play shortstop in the bigs from this class, with sure hand and plus range, but scouts aren’t sure if his bat is enough to get him to the big leagues. With a thin build and lack of power, Aristy’s bat doesn’t stand out, but he’s elicited comparisons to Brewers SS Alcides Escobar, and may follow the same career path, with steady, incremental improvement at the plate. One insider likes his bat speed and projection and thinks he could be grow into his frame and become “Alfonso Soriano light.”

For the moment, he’s not a whole lot to get excited about, but neither was Escobar when I saw him in the Florida State League last year, and now he’s almost a big leaguer. That just might be enough to justify the $1 million price tag that’s he’s rumored to be getting, with a number of teams on him and San Diego, yet again, being the rumored front runner.

9. Giancarlo Arias, IF, Dominican Republic
Aristy, Arias, and the next prospect, Jose Osoria, have been lumped together as similar prospects that currently play shortstop and should get comparable bonuses, but Arias is a different sort of player than Aristy and Osoria.

Arias is a stocky six footer with a plus arm and impressive left-handed bat that many project to move off of shortstop in the near future. His hands are good but his foot speed is below-average prompting projections that he could stick at second base, although third base seems like a better profile, given his frame. Still, one source likes his footwork and hands and thinks Arias’ unusually-proportioned body may play at shortstop longer than expected, like Juan Uribe, especially given his plus arm.

Arias is talked about in the same $1 million neighborhood as Aristy, and BA reports he’s likely sign with the Yankees, for a bonus as high as $1.4 million. While that wouldn’t be shocking, that number is higher than anything I’ve heard on Arias.

10. Jose Osoria, SS, Dominican Republic
As mentioned above, Osoria has a similar profile to Aristy, as a glove-first shortstop with limited offensive upside. So, you can copy the words from Aristy’s report, adjust down a hundred thousand dollars or so and be pretty much on point with Osoria’s skills.

Beyond that, anything more than general information on Osoria has been tough to come by as he hasn’t been easy for scouts to get a look at. Considering that there were a number of teams showing interest in Osoria earlier in the process, it’s almost a lock that he’s got a deal already done, but trying to figure out which team is anyone’s guess.

The “Could Be” Millionaires

11. Ramon Flores, OF, Venezuela
Flores is an unheralded prospect that has shown an oustanding hitting ability for scouts, but due to questionable power, has an uncertain professional profile. If you follow the draft, you know that an uncertain profile as an outfield ‘tweener, without enough speed for center, or enough power to be a solid starter at a corner spot, leaves you in limbo and usually ends up costing the player a lot of money.

Flores shows an advanced hitability that some say could make him a .300 hitter someday. It goes without saying that not all project Flores’ bat so favorably, that he’s a little rough around the edges, he’s 16, blah, blah, blah, you get the idea. His power is more gap-to-gap and is based on hard, consistent contact moreso than freakish bat speed or strength, but most think it can be average, producing about 15 homers annually in the end. Flores has deceiving average speed that will play in a corner outfield spot and should be able to garner a bonus of $700,000 or more.

12. Gustavo Pierre, 3B, Dominican Republic
Pierre is another of the Dominican shortstops, but basically no one thinks he can stick there; third base and left field are the two most common positional projections. His bat shows flashes, but how good his bat has looked varies from one game, BP session, or workout to another. He has sound swing mechanics, but showing an inability to consistently perform in game situations has some teams worried about his long-term prospects.

At 6′2 and 175 pounds, Pierre has some projection left in his frame, quick feet, and some power potential. He has been connected to the Blue Jays for some time, and figures to get a bonus in the $600,000 to $700,000 range.

13. Ismael Guillon, LHP, Venezuela
Guillon is a big 6′3 lefthander that hasn’t been seen a whole lot, but has a good amount of polish for a 16 year old. He has a larger, more filled-out frame compared to fellow 6′3 Venezuelan hurler Portillo, and throws from the left side, but has a lower upside. Guillon works in the high 80s with his fastball and lacks bigtime projection, but has 3 workable pitches and some feel for pitching. He figures to get a bonus of about $700,000 as well.

14. George Drullal, 3B, Dominican Republic
Drullal is another under-the-radar prospect with some enticing upside. Drullal shows a solid swing, some power potential, and enough athleticism to profile as a pro third baseman. He is more raw than the hitting prospects listed above him, but not that many 16 year old hitters look much like they do at 25, so at this juncture of the rankings, you’re looking for elements you want to bet on. The Mets are heavily rumored to be the team that likes Drullal the best and his bonus could be as high as $700,000, which apparently is the buzz price for players of this ability.

15. Francisco Valdivia, RHP, Nicaragua
Not too many teams have seen Valdivia, the only Nicaraguan on this list, in game conditions, so there will be a lot of projecting to be made on a small sample of performance. But, as said above with Drullal, you can’t be too picky with the now-abilities of 16 year olds.

Valdivia has an extremely projectable frame at 6′3 and 180 pounds, and shows an average fastball with good sink from a three-quarters arm angle that has hit 92. He is raw, lacking high-level instruction and experience. Predictably, he lacks refinement in his secondary pitches and has mechanics that need to be reworked, but has a high risk/reward ratio.

The Sleeper

Christian Betancourt, C, Panama
Betancourt actually turned 17 before July 2nd, so he was eligible to sign before the rest of these prospects and inked a deal with the Braves in March for $600,000. Betancourt owns an underrated mix of tools that are solid across the boards and don’t jump out at first glance. More importantly, for such a young player, he also shows the kind of work ethic and attitude you like to see from young backstops—he just gets it done.

For more names in the mix, check ESPN’s International primer and for more in-depth and breaking news on the international front check the always reliable Baseball America.

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

As mentioned in the last article, SaberScouting.com’s sources are indicating that 16 year old Dominican right-hander Michel Inoa is expected to sign with the Oakland A’s for a bonus between $4.25 million and $4.50 million as the headliner of the international signing period that starts on July 2nd.

Inoa has a frontline starter profile despite being only 16 years old, and has the potential to be a Rick Porcello-level prospect when he’s 18. There are still plenty of big-time players available after Inoa, and, as usual, it includes projectable arms and toolsy bats.

The top bat is up for debate, with some people in the camp of Rafael Rodriguez, a power-hitting outfielder from the Dominican, but the majority prefer Yorman Rodriguez (no relation) who is a tooled-up Venezuelan centerfielder with Carlos Beltran-like upside.

The top arm after Inoa is Adis Portillo, an inconsistent, lanky righty from Venezuela that shows flashes of low 90’s velocity and a solid curveball and changeup. He figures to get an inflated price as the consolation prize to the clubs who weren’t willing to pay the price for Inoa.

Check out a comprehensive Inoa scouting report after the jump, and stay tuned for reports on the rest of the top 15 Latin prospects coming shortly…

(Michel Inoa photo credit: Victor Perez/ESPNDeportes.com)

1. Michel Inoa, RHP, Dominican Republic
There has certainly been much said about Inoa in recent weeks, so I’ll stick to reporting what I’ve heard rather that what you can already read there. Inoa is 6′7 and an athletic 205 pound right-handed pitcher whose fastball has been as high as 96, but sits in the 91-93 range presently.

He is especially noted for his outstanding frame: he’s already enormous for a 16 year old, but has plenty of remaining projection, amazing body control, and mechanics that translate into borderline unbelievable command for his age and size. Most 6′7 teenage pitchers (there aren’t that many to begin with) are gangly, all arms and legs, raw, lack command and body control, and generally just a long way from being a finished product. One source termed Inoa frame as, “a basketball body with some definition—he’s still skinny—but he’s projectable and has basketball athleticism.”

These qualities have some projecting him to hit 100 in a few years, and that isn’t too far-fetched considering the fact that he’s had little to no high-level coaching. Inoa’s mechanics are clean and the ball “comes out of his hand shockingly easy,” according to another source. Inoa comes from an athletic family, has a clean and fluid arm action, and earns high marks for his makeup and work ethic.

Inoa has advanced feel a curveball that already flashes above-average and most project for plus, along with a splitter than one insider called “dirty.” He’s been called a , “once in a decade talent,” by more than a few. The first source said that elements of Inoa remind him of Dellin Betances as a high school prospect, with the big projectable frame, lack of high-level instruction, easy velocity, and feel for a potential plus curveball, but then points out the differences that make Betances a $1 million bonus 18 year old and figure to make Inoa a $4 million plus bonus player at 16 years old.

Inoa has superior body control, command, and third pitch with an overall more polished package, and obviously is two years younger. He could very well be Rick Porcello in two years and that would seem to make $4 million a bargain. I’ll get into more detail about the logic and risk of amateur bonuses and Latin versus draft spending an article after the Latin scouting reports.

By now, tou can see what kind of talent Inoa has; plenty to justify multiple visits to the Dominican from big hitters like Brian Cashman and reportedly four visits from Billy Beane. The talk has been until recently that the Yankees were out in front and the final price would be in the $3.0 million to $3.5 million range, but it appears once talk of numbers north of that range became prevalent, most teams still in the running dropped out almost on principle, if $4 million is the new starting point.

Since I know anyone that’s reading this site desperately wants a breakdown on the 20-80 scale for Inoa, I’ll do the irresponsible thing and throw you a bone. I won’t be so foolish as to come up with an OFP, since Latin prospects have a completely different scale, just like the draft amateurs and professional players do, but these 20-80 grades come after consulting a few sources, so it’s pretty close to the stuff on a team’s scouting report.

Fastball: 55/70
Curveball: 50/60
Splitter: 45/55
Command: 45/60

Those future grades are on par with what I came up with after seeing Rick Porcello, while the present grades, obviously, aren’t a whole lot to write home about on their own, but from a 16 year old, it’s enough to write…well, a little over 600 words so far.

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

Frankie and I have been busy gathering more information for articles, with a comprehensive 2009 draft preview, 2008 draft review, Cape Cod Reports, Florida State League reports, Trade Rumors, and MLB Analysis all on the way in the coming days and weeks. The most pressing of these topics is the International signing period, which opens on July 2nd, when clubs can sign the newly-eligible 16 year old talent from Latin America.

Much has been made of this season’s crop, mostly because of the headlining prospect, imposing righthander Michel Inoa, and his reported enormous demands. Based on the conversations I’ve had with Latin American sources, not only will Inoa easily break the bonus record ($2.44 million to Wily Mo Pena, pictured at right), he may come close to doubling it.

SaberScouting.com’s sources have indicated that the Oakland A’s are willing to go over $4 million to sign Inoa and are the heavy favorites to sign him, for a record bonus as high as $4.5 million.

The other teams in the running haven’t shown the consistent interest the A’s have, including multiple visits from Billy Beane, and most teams aren’t willing to break the $4 million barrier.

In an environment where you have to pay a competitive bonus and “recruit” the player like a high school football star, teams that are called heavy favorites late in the process almost always close the deal.

Check out some notes on the upcoming International signing period, which starts on July 2nd, after the jump…

There is more to this year’s crop than just the top talent, though this year promises to have the more Latin millionaires than any other, and that is a function both of the amount of talent and also organizations eager to find a place to spend their money.

The real storyline going forward from this July 2nd is going be clubs like Oakland and San Diego coming out of the woodwork to be major players on the international scene, as the potential return on international prospects is such now that almost every team is extremely active in Latin American now, even if with lower-bonus type prospects.

There are some interesting dynamics at play in Latin America that I’ll cover in the next few articles, but I’ll go over a quick economic breakdown of what should happen on July 2nd before we get to the scouting reports.

How Much Money Is In Play?

According to one executive, for all of 2004, only 8-9 teams spent $1 million total in Latin America, and this season, it is expected that 20-22 teams will spend a total of $1 million or more. That is a function of a great talent crop, teams having more money to spend, and infrastructure including scouting networks and academies now being in place for many teams that recently established a presence in the two hotbed countries: Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.

Small market teams are realizing that to have a chance to win they have be successful at scouting, be willing to go over slot at times in the draft, but also must be a player of some kind in Latin America. There is talk of some teams doubling their Latin budgets from roughly 30% of their total amateur budget to nearly 60% to try to take advantage of the value that can be found in these countries if done right.

As far as total money spent by all teams, roughly $50 million was spent last year in Latin America and that number is expected to jump to about $65 million this year—a 30% increase in one year.

The poster child for this increase in Latin spending is the Oakland A’s. They have already spent $350,000 on toolsy 17 year old Dominican OF Robin Rosario, signed another prospect for $100,000, have added a few lesser profile players, and are prepared to offer over $4 million to Inoa, the headliner for a July 2nd rush that could include more top talent. Oakland has already spent, before July 2nd, an amount that exceeds their last three years’ Latin bonuses combined.

How Many Millionaires?

On a per-player basis, last season there were three Latin millionaires: 3B Michael Almanzar ($1.5 million to the Red Sox), OF Kelvin DeLeon ($1.1 million to the Yankees), and SS Jharmidy DeJesus ($1.0 million to the Mariners). This year, you can expect anywhere from 5 to 10 millionaires, with many insiders suggesting 7-8 as the likely number.

An interesting dynamic to keep an eye on are inflated prices for players originally projected to get between $500,000 and $1 million. The clubs that don’t get their big money targets in the $1 million and higher category will fight each other and bid up for the second tier guys. With more teams on the international scene, that should push a number of projection-based players figured to sign in the mid-to-high six figures to become members of the millionaire club.

Inoa Getting Lots of Love

As for Michel Inoa, it’s been indicated that at least a few teams have a policy, informal or stated, not to pay a certain amount for July 2nd pitchers; such as a cutoff at $250,000, $500,000, or as high as $1 million for other teams. Inoa was called a, “philosophy changer,” by one insider and, by all accounts, there were 10-15 teams on Inoa as his price climbed from $2.0 million to $3.5 million. Now that the bidding appears to have reached $4.0 million or more, it looks like there may only be a few teams still in the running.

One thing is for sure: whichever teams ends up with the big right-hander will have a highly-coveted prize.

The Loophole Millionaire and the Defector

The above projections don’t include two notable international talents. The first is power-hitting Dominican OF Juan Duran that the Reds signed for $2.0 million in March due to a little known age loophole, as every other team assumed he wasn’t eligible to sign until this July 2nd.

While the Reds rave about Duran’s right field arm, advanced bat, and big power, one source I spoke with was much more skeptical of Duran. The executive described Duran’s hitability as average and while the power is plus, Duran’s defensive tools would only play at 1B and the bat isn’t on the same level as previous July 2nd bonus babies like Giants’ 1B Angel Villalona ($2.1 million) and Yankees’ C Jesus Montero ($1.6 million), making Duran is more of a high six-figure to low seven-figure prospect.

Recent Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo is a 19 year old impact corner bat with skills along the lines of Villalona and Angels’ Cuban defector 1B Kendry Morales. It appears Viciedo will not become a international free agent like Jose Contreras, Livan Hernadez, and many other Cubans defectors who defected to Caribbean countries have, but rather a prospect for the amateur draft, as Yunel Escobar did when he defected to America.

This appears to be the case because, instead of defecting to another Caribbean country to establish residency and become an international free agent like any July 2nd prospect, Viciedo quietly came to America in late May, making him subject to the amateur draft, but because MLB was not aware of his defection, he was not on the list of players that could be drafted in this month’s draft, which would then make him eligible for the 2009 draft. Viciedo’s agent, Jaime Torres, is trying to convince MLB that since Viciedo was processed a month before June’s 2008 draft, that he was draft-eligible this year and going undrafted would make him a free agent presently.

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

As you might guess, given his pedigree as a Dwight Gooden-comped first round pick, Jeremy Jeffress has loads of talent.

Jeffress also comes with off-field issues that some teams are concerned about, and there are, as you would expect, some rough edges to iron out on the field as well.

Come on in and take a look at the full scouting report and video, after the jump…

Here’s a look at some video I took of Jeffress at this outing.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHS, Brevard County Manatees (Milwaukee)

Pitch - Present/Future Grades
Fastball - 65/65
Curveball - 50/60
Changeup -50/55
Command - 45/50

Physical Description - Listed at 6′0, 197, but looks lighter than that listed weight with a loosely-fitting uniform and thin build. Body looks more like a speed-based athlete, like a punt returner or center fielder than a pitcher. Square shoulders, slight build throughout with more strength than it appears and athleticism to burn. Comparison-wise is inbetween a 6′2 Ervin Santana and 5′10 Johnny Cueto as far as shorter and slim power righties.

Fastball - 65/65

Explosive at 92-95 mph throughout the game, hitting 97 when he wanted to, usually to get a K to close out an inning. Most of these fastballs are four-seamers and didn’t feature much movement, but the deception created by such easy velocity with a quick arm allows it to sneak up on hitters.

Despite a lack of downhill plane or sink on his fastball, the late life Jeffress gets with a fastball that seems to jump at hitters, along with effective command down in the zone, creates a good amount of groundballs, belied by the stats that say he’s solidly above-average in that regard this season.

Jeffress also had good command of his fastball: he only left it up with a purpose, and would come inside (always at least 94 when he did) and move it back outside and hit his spots. This command faltered later in the game, but that is almost expected with young power arms still figuring things out.

He also had what I call a mechanical cutter, because the cut appears to be purely a product of throwing across his body and harmful to keep repeating, though it creates a more effective pitch, similar to what some power pitchers like Kerry Wood tend to do.

This pitch didn’t have much depth, but at 93 mph, it had plus velocity and plus late bite that could become a real weapon if he could learn to harness it.

Curveball -50/60

This pitch was disappointing in the first few innings as he focused on a fastball/changeup combination and showed no feel for a below-average spinner that hung up in the zone and that backed up on him quite a bit.

Jeffress’ curveball is an effort for him: he’s been tinkering with different grips, and in the first two innings, he had more effort in his delivery on the curve, raised his arm angle a bit, and jerked his head some to make room for his arm. But he did find the pitch in the third inning and starting throwing it a little too much, but this shift was warranted as he showed a power hammer that flashed out-pitch potential. He threw a 78-81 mph bender with sharp late break and good depth that was short at times, but showed above-average potential.

Toward the end of his outing, he showed a more aggressive pitch at 82-84 mph that was about as hard as a curveball can be thrown with the same depth and more bite. I don’t know if the 82-84 mph plus hammer can be thrown throughout a whole start, or if it was equivalent to a 96-97 mph fastball effort-wise, but I know there’s a 60 curveball in the tank. He’s between a 55 and 60 future grade on the curveball for me, but I opted to round up in this instance since he showed 60 curve while still not having full feel for the pitch yet; that’s reason for optimism here.

Changeup - 50/55

Just like his curveball, Jeffress’ changeup has made strides since signing as a raw arm out of high school. It’s now a solidly average pitch that reminded me of Johnny Cueto’s changeup in that it comes from a high arm angle and doesn’t have much fade, but a good amount of late sink and loads of deception and confidence from a shorter power right-hander.

As mentioned above, Jeffress relied on this pitch more early in the outing, and I noted next to each one that you simply couldn’t see it coming. And when you can’t tell the difference until it’s too late between 80-81 mph with sink and 92-97 without sink, that can get some goofy swings from Class-A hitters.

This pitch likely will never be an out-pitch and is much closer to average for me than above-average as far as movement goes, but the deception and flashes of command for this pitch are outstanding, especially from the type of guy you don’t expect to see that from.

Command - 45/50

Here is yet another area where Jeffress has improved greatly since signing, and even from last season in the Sally League. He was unhittable early in the game, and only gave up one hit (on a hanging curve) and one run (walk and steal before the hit) before the implosion happened.

Jeffress was commanding his fastball well to the corners and down in the zone and he kept off-speed stuff down until he started throwing his curve too much and hitters sat on it. He certainly had above-average big league command early in the outing and about 30 command once the snowballing had begun: what’s going on here?

Some question the starter profile for Jeffress due mainly to this issue, but the 3 pitches are there, and he wasn’t getting hit because he was going through the lineup the third time, he simply wasn’t the same pitcher he was the first two times through, and this has happened before. Check the linescore for his May 26th outing versus Daytona: 3 scoreless, then 9 runs in 2 innings.

This isn’t a lack of command, it’s good command, great stuff, and the thing many people question about Jeffress given his 50-game suspension last season for smoking pot; his head. He appears to be making strides to move away from that, but ultimately, does Jeffress have the mental ability to be an effective big leaguer? Check out the ERAs of each of his last six starts: 16.87, 0.00, 17.36, 1.29, 0.00, 12.46.

Jeffress needs some of those high numbers disappear, and just like with the feel for a curveball issue I touched on earlier, is this a lightbulb turning on one day, a slow process, or something that never happens?

Mechanics

Jeffress has outstanding mechanics: a clean arm action, aggressive weight transfer, a quick power pitcher’s tempo, big time velocity without extreme arm torque but effective body torque, leads with a powerful yet controlled front side, keeps his elbow relatively low compared to his shoulder in the arm stroke; just all the good stuff you’re looking for. Similar to Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar, names you’ll see later in the article as well.

Statistics

—————————————————-

This tells the story of Jeremy Jeffress’ 2008 season in prospect terms. The BB and K rate stats are both enough on their own to be very impressive, but both of them happening to the same pitcher in the same season is reason for excitement.

He also has improved his GO/AO rate, and that is purely a function of command, as he isn’t throwing a fastball with any more sink or downward plane, he’s just commanding the pitch better and getting more weak contact and grounders. I can’t find the 2007 GB/FB numbers, but the 2008 rate is 2.18, well above-average.

Summary

Jeffress elicits projections to the bullpen from some that I just don’t see. His stuff certainly would profile and play up in the pen, but his command and consistency lapses aren’t due to going through a lineup multiple times as much as it is dealing with adversity, which may happen as much if not more in short stints late in the game as a reliever.

With a fastball that hits 97, plus hammer, above-average changeup, flashes of above-average command, a clean arm, efficient power mechanics, and groundball tendencies, Jeffress certainly has the complete package to be a #1 starter if everything comes together and you can’t say that about very many humans on Earth.

As for what Jeffress is right now, I’d say he’s a solid spare arm for one trip through a lineup at the big level, living off his fastball life and command, which would be a present group D swing guy with a projected role of a #2/#3 starter, a solid B group prospect overall.

See SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial for an explanation of the of jargon and numbers.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 58
Present Group: D
Future Group: B
Projected Role: #2/#3 Starter
MLB ETA: Full-Time in 2010
Overall Comparison: Somewhere in the Kelvim Escobar/Johnny Cueto/Ervin Santana continuum

As part our post-draft coverage, we thought the best approach would be to cover things that our readers wanted to hear about. We weren’t able to cover every player in our top 100 or get out all the content we wanted to before the draft started, but we still have that raw information.

Rather than let it sit, or do a cookie-cutter post-mortem you could find anywhere, we’ll field your questions and be the open source style resource we wanted for draft info when we started following the draft.

So, hit the new e-mail address we’ve set up for the mailbag, mailbag@saberscouting.com, and tell us what you want to know.

It could be breaking down some tools top 25 capsule style, maybe a mechanical look at someone (obviously won’t be too many of those given time considerations), breaking down how your favorite team approached the draft, or just sharing some dope we might have on signability and why-did-they-pick-him type stuff.

So, gather up all those questions and send them to mailbag@saberscouting.com and we’ll try to answer as many as we can, and there may be a special surprise for you guys tomorrow, I just don’t want to jinx it yet. It may or may not include Matthew Lesko, the creepy question mark suit guy.

Okay it doesn’t include him. But that’s because he wouldn’t respond to our interview request to talk about the history of the question mark. Stay tuned!

This is the place where I’ll yammer on and on about all kinds of stuff. Join me in the comments with some of your thoughts, or hit me at kiley@saberscouting.com.

And if you’d like to talk to Frankie, he’s liveblogging this thing for FoxSports.com here.

Join me after the jump for periodic updates and an updated stab at the mock draft just before we get started.

Here’s my last attempt at mocking these picks, but not before a note about last night’s mock update before we get going here. The heavy rumors of Jersey prep arm Jason Knapp to Philly would’ve had me project him there…but it was really late and I forgot. Just a housekeeping note for those of you that want to hold me to every prediction I’ve made.

Many of these picks are reportedly done deals, some are still up in the air. The difference? Perceived accuracy, so I won’t say which ones I’m confident in. And if you want some info on these players and mock commentary, check out the first half of the mock draft, the updated top 100 prospects list, or just poke around the site’s last few posts and you’ll probably find what you’re looking for.

1:44 PM

1. TB - Tim Beckham

2. PIT - Pedro Alvarez

3. KC - Eric Hosmer

4. BAL - Brian Matusz

5. SF - Justin Smoak

6. FLA - Kyle Skipworth

7. CIN - Gordon Beckham

8. CHW - Yonder Alonso

9. WSH - Aaron Crow

10. HOU - Brett Lawrie

11. TEX - Gerrit Cole

12 through 30 to come right after I pour myself a big glass of water…

1:54 PM

Posey could potentially be in free fall and the team that it has been strongly suggested to me is behind this slip is none other than the New York Yankees. I still don’t think he gets that far (Tigers at 21), but that’s what I’m hearing.

12. OAK - Aaron Hicks

13. STL - Shooter Hunt

14. MIN - Christian Friedrich

15. LA - Ethan Martin

16. MIL - Jason Castro

17. TOR - Brett Wallace

18. NYM - Zach Collier

19. CHC - Casey Kelly

20. SEA - Andrew Cashner

21. DET - Buster Posey

1:59 PM

Down to the wire…

22. NYM - Jemile Weeks

23. SD - Ryan Perry

24. PHI - Anthony Hewitt

25. COL - Jake Odorizzi

26. ARZ - Josh Fields

Can I just stop guessing? Okay, I’ll finish this out. Man, there’s no way this is going to be right…

2:03 PM

27. MIN - Brett DeVall

28. NYY - Mike Montgomery

29. CLE - Reese Havens

30. BOS -Daniel Schlereth

Here’s Jim Callis’ mock (probably better than mine), MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo’s mock, and Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein’s and ESPN’s Keith Law’s mocks.

2:09 PM

The Rays are on the clock, and are all but assured to choose Tim Beckham, the prep shortstop from Griffin HS outside of Atlanta. Here’s the page with his scouting bureau video and here’s a story about Rays scouting director RJ Harrison in a late-season visit to see Beckham go insane at the plate. He’s really legit, super athletic, and…well just read the report we have on him here.

2:16 PM

Karl Ravech adds that Tim Beckham, “is an African-American.” Ummm…thanks.

2:18 PM

Karl also must’ve seen my Beckham graphic, mentioning that he Beckhams aren’t related.

Here comes Pedro Alvarez, was confirmed as done late last night.

2:21 PM

Some talk now that Gerrit Cole will fall to the Yankees and be their over-slot goodness. They aren’t worried about his makeup like some are and would be thrilled to pick him up.

2:24 PM

Look for Eric Hosmer to go to the Royals, another pick that was confirmed as done late last night/this morning. Again, look to the Top 25 capsules for breakdowns on these guys.

2:27 PM

Some thoughts on how an up-to-date Rays top prospect list may look, keeping in mind that 2-6 is closely crammed together

1. David Price

2. Tim Beckham

3. Wade Davis

4. Reid Brignac

5. Jake McGee

6. Desmond Jennings

2:29 PM

It’s been all but confirmed that Brian Matusz is the guy here for the O’s. After that, the Giants at #5 are the first real wildcard in the draft, with a tossup between Justin Smoak and Gordon Beckham, possibly with a third guy being considered. I’d guess Smoak at this point.

2:32 PM

Did they get an animatronic Bud Selig from Chuck E. Cheese to make the pick announcements?

2:33 PM

It’s been confirmed that it will be a college hitter at #5 for the Giants, I’m still saying Justin Smoak, about 75% sure, but Gordon Beckham and Bustey Posey are now in play. Be sure to keep up with the BA Draft Blog, as they totally stole my idea for a liveblog.

2:37 PM

Okay, I was wrong, didn’t see that one coming, as I didn’t think the Giants would pay the price, but a fantastic pick for San Fran if they can sign him (which you assume they will if they take him at #5). Meanwhile, the Posey, Detroit, and Yankee camps all stomp on their hats for all that money they could’ve paid to get a premium catcher.

At #6, the Marlins are ALL OVER Kyle Skipworth. Unless they’re the masters of the dry hump, he’s the pick here. And at #7, Cincinnati is really on Gordon Beckham, with the White Sox thrilled to get Justin Smoak at #8 and the Nats with Aaron Crow at #9. Now the Astros at #10 are the interesting pick: could be Christian Friedrich, Brett Lawrie, or Shooter Hunt.

2:45 PM

So, a spectacular pick for the Marlins with Skipworth, a super-premium catcher for a team that really needs one. But now Alonso at #7 threw us a curve. Gordon Beckham now looks like a lock at #8 to the White Sox, and now Justin Smoak could slip to the Astros at #10, who would be ever more excited to get him than the White Sox would. But, really, nobody knows. Maybe Smoak to the White Sox and Gordon Beckham is the one getting the short end of the stick, slipping to #9 or #10.

2:55 PM

Now we’re at #9 and Aaron Crow has been heavily rumored here in the last few hours, but they didn’t know that Justin Smoak would be here. I say they skew to pitching with Crow, Smoak goes 10th to Houston, Gerrit Cole or Shooter Hunt (I’ll say Cole, but a signability college bat could also be a surprise pick here) to Texas at 11, and then Jemile Weeks, Christian Friedrich, or Aaron Hicks to Oakland at 12, I’ll say Hicks, but the Weeks rumors are coming on strong. Friedrich seems like the guy that’s in play from 10-20 and is the backup plan for each team at 10-19, going around 20th.

3:00 PM

Karl Ravech has forgotten how to count, points out player’s races while video of them runs, and Bud Selig has just given up trying to look like a human. I think they’re both sipping some scotch off air.

3:04 PM

Slaves to the slotting system, Houston, go to that off-the-board college bat I was suggesting may happen, although for a signability pick, I’d go with Brett Lawrie here for the upside. I’m not really a Castro guy, and Houston already has a young big league backstop J.R. Towles and recent 1st rounder Max Sapp in the system, so I’m not sure I’m on board here. A lot of teams, like Milwaukee at 16 and the Mets at 17 and 22 reeeeeeeally wanted Castro, so it’s not a huge overdarft.

Houston is in love with Kyle Skipworth and was obviously crushed that he didn’t make it to them. Does Texas take Smoak, or stick with the power arms Cole or Hunt? If Smoak (rumored as high as 4th this morning) makes it to Oakland, Billy Beane may be doing backflips, as they really wanted to sign him in the 1st round out of high school, but he asked for a few hundred thousand too much for their tastes.

3:09 PM

No storybook ending for Beane here, and Texas gets a new Teixeira, who they must be thrilled to get their hands on. Cole now looks to be landing at #21 to Detroit (talk has cooled on that front) or all the way down to the Yankees at #28 (talk heating up here). Who does Oakland take here? College pick Jemile Weeks or super premium athlete Aaron Hicks? And is Hicks a pitcher for them, or maybe an outfielder?

3:15 PM

Jemile Weeks it is. I like Jemile, and he’s in the jumbled next 15 players on everyone’s board. He’s a solid, old-school college pick for Oakland, but isn’t necessarily the fat guy that walks a ton, traditional Oakland pick.

3:18 PM

For St. Louis, who will it be? Ryan Perry or Christian Friedrich seem the leaders with some bats like Lawrie and Wallace coming on late.

3:20 PM

And Brett Wallace it is. Twins look to be all over Aaron Hicks here at 14. Also, I’ll be doing the shadow draft thing at the middle of each round for the first 5, which would be at 15, 38, 61, 92, 127, 157. For the Dodgers at 15, they’ve been on Zach Collier, Ethan Martin, Andrew Cashner, Aaron Hicks (if he makes it) with some talk of Tim Melville and Jake Odorizzi

3:27 PM

Hicks is the guy, and he’s an outfielder in the Torii Hunter mold the Twins are looking to develop. I’ll project Andrew Cashner to LA with Ethan Martin and Casey Kelly as a backup possibilities. I’m still split on Shooter Hunt, Casey Kelly, and Brett Lawrie for my shadow draft choice, leaning to Casey Kelly’s two way upside that could be Shooter Hunt or Brett Lawrie level in value.

3:33 PM

Not a suprise that Ethan Martin went 15th, but very surprising that he was announced as a third baseman. These announcements have been misread in the past and corrected, but it appears the Dodgers like Ethan Martin as a hitter, which isn’t super surprising, and he’s got an Andy LaRoche type package, but with even more power.

And Bud Selig officially is illiterate.

Shadow draft pick: Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS (FL)

He could surpass Hunt and Lawrie as a hitter and pitcher, so I’m oddly playing it safe with a high school pick.

Props to Gordon Beckham for being the first intelligent sounding person on the telecast. Okay, friend of SS Jonathan Mayo sounded like a human not terrified to be on television as well.

Looks like Milwaukee will be looking hard at Brett Lawrie with Jason Castro off the board. With Lawrie and Wallace potentially off the board at 17, the Jays are just pissed. Look for Hunt or Friedrich here.

3:42 PM

Cooper is a bit of a surprise here, but fits the mold of Wallace, who many projected here. Cooper was a hot name to the Yankees at 28 if an overslot guy didn’t fall and would’ve been a 25-35 range pick if he doesn’t go 17. That kind of mild overdraft is fine with such a jumble of players at this juncture. Hunt is now in freefall as many said he would be. And the Friedrich prediction looks like it’s coming true as well.

Mets could go in a lot of directions here: Hunt, Friedrich, Perry, Cashner, Fields, Ike Davis, Havens on the college side, Collier or Odorizzi on the prep side, with an unlikely shot at over-slot preps Melville, Cole, or Kelly. I’ll go with Hunt here, with Friedrich the backup pick.

3:48 PM

I underestimated the Mets love for Ike Davis, maybe because I don’t like him much at all at 18, but he does have the most power on the board. I just thought he’d be there at 22 and Hunt/Friedrich wouldn’t be.

Look for Casey Kelly at 19 to the Cubs with hometown prep hurler Jake Odorizzi as a darkhorse.

3:53 PM

And I’m wrong again. Cashner certainly fits the Tim Wilken mold and probably would’ve been the third guy I projected here, but there’ve been far too many 3rd guys and off-the-board guys going that my predictions are worth bubkus at this point. I’ll stick to reporting what others are telling me and giving some commentary.

Seattle had heavy rumors on Cashner in the last few days, may look to Field or Perry for MLB bullpen help, or the guy they’ll actually take that I haven’t thought of yet. I can say that the Tigers really want to get Casey Kelly at #21 if the pricetag fits how much they like him. If Kelly gets past Detroit, the Yankees will be primed to pay the man his money.

4:10 PM

Took a quick lunch break as the reliever run went down and the Yankees now look like they’ll get their man in Casey Kelly, and should still have Gerrit Cole on the board too if they prefer him. Not a huge fan of Dykstra’s awkward hitting mechanics this early in the draft, but he should hit in the minors and hit for power, just not sure if it happens at the big league level.

I’ve got the Phils taking Anthony Hewitt here.

4:25 PM

Hewitt it is and I’m back on track. Odorizzi had been rumored heavily to Colorado, but Friedrich fell a long way to 25, about 10 spots farther than he should have, great pick for them. Shooter Hunt is shockingly still around—many said he could fall, but I’m not sure many thought it would be this far. He’s similar to Max Scherzer and I think Arizona pops him here, although they could go with a reliever like Schlereth or Weatherford, or go over-slot for a prep arm like Melville or Cole.

4:32 PM

Schlereth it is, going with the hometown reliever that Peter Gammons shared a great anecdote about. Mark Schlereth was coming from the Rockies complex in Tucson (city of U. of Arizona as well) and asked Rockies AGM Josh Byrnes if he would watch his middle school son, Daniel pitch. Byrnes said he could be really good someday and now as GM of the D’Backs, he’s got his man that could help them win a title this season.

28. NYY - Casey Kelly

29. CLE - Conor Gillaspie

30. BOS - Gerrit Cole

4:37 PM

Carlos Gutierrez? There’s a surprise, but the Twins do that frequently, we’ll see if this one works out as a fast track sinker/slider reliever. Here comes the anticipated Casey Kelly pick to the Yankees, who they appear to be ecstatic to select.

4:42 PM

Cole was certainly on the shortlist here for the Yankees, but I’m surprised they didn’t take Kelly. Maybe they know he’ll be around in the supplemental round and Cole would’ve gone to the Red Sox if he was still on the board after #28. Or maybe Kelly is going to the Red Sox. I give up. The Yanks are also on Aaron Weatherford and Brett Marshall in the supplemental round if Kelly isn’t an option, for all you Yankees fans out there.

I’ll be signing off at the end of the first round with another crack at the supplemental round as my last futile effort at predicting what will happen.

4:49 PM

Just ignore everything I’m saying from now on. Had heard a lot of Chisenhall buzz in the supplemental round, just didn’t think he’d sneak into the first round. Shooter Hunt, Tim Melville, and Zach Collier have all slipper a long way, with only Melville having signability concerns. Gillaspie, Hunt, Collier, Melville, Odorizzi, Weatherford, Kelly, and possibly Wade Miley as a longshot in play for the Sox here.

4:52 PM

And Casey Kelly finds his landing spot. Kelly’s agents at SFX deal with the Red Sox a lot on the big league side, so the negotiation shouldn’t be too difficult as basic parameters have probably been hammered out. We expect about 10,000 additional hits on our Casey Kelly stories from all the Sox message boards.

5:00 PM

Is it just me or does Karl Ravech seem really creepy on today’s coverage?

And now my swan song, a projection of the sandwich round:

31. Minnesota - Brett DeVall, LHP, Florida HS
32. Milwaukee - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
33. New York Mets - Brad Holt, RHP, UNC-Wilmington
34. Philadelphia - Jason Knapp, RHP, New Jersey HS
35. Milwaukee - Evan Frederickson, LHR, San Francisco
36. Kansas City - Mike Montgomery, LHP, California HS
37. San Francisco - Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine
38. Houston - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
39. St. Louis - Zach Collier, RF, California HS
40. Atlanta - Ezekiel Spruill, RHP, Georgia HS
41. Chicago Cubs - Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS
42. San Diego - Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
43. Arizona - Aaron Weatherford, RHP, Mississippi State
44. New York Yankees - Brett Marshall, RHP, Texas HS
45. Boston - Isaac Galloway, OF, California HS
46. San Diego - Stephen Fife, RHP, Utah

A slew of others are in play for the round like Chris Carpenter, Zach Putnam, Ross Seaton, Dennis Raben, Tyler Ladendorf, James Darnell, Bryan Price, Adrian Nieto, Tim Murphy, Kyle Weiland, Lance Lynn, Scott Gorgen, Aaron Shafer. And obviously more. Signing off…

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

I’ve run out of ideas for an intro for the last minute update to the Top 100, so I’ll talk about other articles.

Looks like we won’t be able to get the top 100 capsules and spreadsheet up and running by draft time, but it might be something we’ll do blurbs of the reports for a post-draft thing, or certain ones on demand.

I’ll definitely be sharing some as the picks come off the board. It’s just a lot of writing for two guys.

That’s another thing: Frankie won’t be here for live draft blogging as he’s doing the same for FoxSports.com, even now, right here.

After I post this, we’ll be coming back with a live draft blog with continuous updates and I might even take a stab at re-mocking the first round with what we know now.

As for now, here’s your list-version top 100 to keep handy, based on our evaluations and conversations with those in the game, suitable for framing. Enjoy it after the jump…

(Gerrit Cole photo: Orange Lutheran HS)

SaberScouting.com Draft Top 100

1. Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
2. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Buster Posey, C, Florida State
4. Brian Matusz, LHS, San Diego
5. Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
6. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
7. Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
8. Aaron Crow, RHS, Missouri
9. Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
10. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
11. Shooter Hunt, RHS, Tulane
12. Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS (FL)
13. Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood SS (CAN)
14. Aaron Hicks, RHP/CF, Wilson HS (CA)
15. Christian Friedrich, LHS, Eastern Kentucky
16. Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State
17. Tim Melville, RHS, Holt HS (MO)
18. Ethan Martin, RHS, Stephen’s County HS (GA)
19. Gerrit Cole, RHS, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
20. Zach Collier, RF, Chino Hills HS (CA)
21. Josh Fields, RHR, Georgia
22. Andrew Cashner, RHR, Texas Christian
23. Reese Havens, 2B, South Carolina
24. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (FL)
25. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
26. Ryan Perry, RHR, Arizona
27. Alex Meyer, RHS, Greensburg HS (IN)
28. Jake Odorizzi, RHS, Highland HS (IL)
29. Jason Castro, C, Stanford
30. Aaron Weatherford, RHR, Mississippi State
31. Brad Holt, RHS, UNC-Wilmington
32. Daniel Schlereth, LHR, Arizona
33. Sonny Gray, RHR, Smyrna HS (TN)
34. Mike Montgomery, LHS, Hart HS (CA)
35. David Cooper, 1B, California
36. Brett Marshall, RHS, Sterling HS (TX)
37. Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State
38. Wade Miley, LHS, Southeastern Louisiana
39. Isaac Galloway, CF, Los Osos HS (CA)
40. Brett DeVall, LHS, Niceville HS (FL)
41. Tyler Sample, RHS, Mullen HS (CO)
42. Anthony Hewitt, CF, Salisbury HS (CT)
43. Tanner Scheppers, RHS, Fresno State
44. Brett Hunter, RHR, Pepperdine
45. Zach Putnam, RHS, Michigan
46. Chris Carpenter, RHS, Kent State
47. Robbie Ross, LHS, Lexington Christian Academy HS (KY)
48. Ross Seaton, RHS, Second Baptist HS (TX)
49. Dennis Raben, RF, Miami (FL)
50. Nick Maronde, LHS, Lexington Catholic HS (KY)
51. Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Howard JC (TX)
52. Roger Kieschnick, RF, Texas Tech
53. James Darnell, RF, South Carolina
54. Kyle Lobstein, LHS, Coconino HS (AZ)
55. Tyler Stovall, LHS, Hokes Bluff HS (AL)
56. Bryan Price, RHR, Rice
57. Zach Stewart, RHR, Texas Tech
58. Niko Vazquez, 2B, Durango HS (NV)
59. Stephen Fife, RHS, Utah
60. Adrian Nieto, C, American Heritage HS (FL)
61. Jamie Mallard, 1B, Middleton HS (FL)
62. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Pitt CC (NC)
63. Tim Murphy, LHS, UCLA
64. Kyle Weiland, RHR, Notre Dame
65. Brent Warren, CF, Xavier HS (IA)
66. Tyler Chatwood, RHS, East Valley HS (CA)
67. Anthony Gose, LHR, Bellflower HS (CA)
68. Daniel Webb, RHS, Heath HS (KY)
69. Evan Frederickson, LHR, San Francisco
70. Tyson Ross, RHR, California
71. Cody Satterwhite, RHR, Mississippi
72. Zack Cox, 3B, Pleasure Ridge Park HS (KY)
73. Jaff Decker, RF, Sunrise Mountain HS (AZ)
74. Brad Hand, LHS, Chaska HS (MN)
75. Petey Paramore, C, Arizona State
76. Lance Lynn, RHS, Mississippi
77. Aaron Shafer, RHS, Wichita State
78. Scott Gorgen, RHS, UC-Irvine
79. Jordy Mercer, SS, Oklahoma State
80. Scott Bittle, RHR, Mississippi
81. Logan Forsythe, 2B, Arkansas
82. Ryan Westmoreland, CF, Portsmouth HS (RI)
83. Zeke Spruill, RHS, Kell HS (GA)
84. Josh Lindblom, RHR, Purdue
85. Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
86. Destin Hood, CF, St. Paul’s Episcopal HS (AL)
87. Scott Green, RHR, Kentucky
88. Robbie Grossman, LF, Cy-Fair HS (TX)
89. Austin Dicharry, RHS, Klein-Collins HS (TX)
90. Seth Lintz, RHS, Marshall County HS (KY)
91. Brett Jacobson, RHR, Vanderbilt
92. Ryan Flaherty, 2B, Vanderbilt
93. Eric Thames, LF, Pepperdine
94. Bobby Lanigan, RHR, Adelphi
95. Xavier Avery, CF, Cedar Grove HS (GA)
96. Bobbu Bundy, RHS, Sperry HS (OK)
97. Donnie Roach, RHS, Bishop Gorman HS (NV)
98. D.J. Mitchell, RHR, Clemson
99. Andrew Liebel, RHS, Long Beach State
100. Blake Tekotte, CF, Miami (FL)

Other Names To Watch
Jay Austin, CF, North Atlanta HS (GA)
Charlie Blackmon, CF, Georgia Tech
Jeremy Bleich, LHS, Stanford
Ryan Carpenter, LHS, Cactus HS (AZ)
Zach Cone, CF, Parkview HS (GA)
Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA
Jordan Danks, CF, TE\exas
Cutter Dykstra, CF, Westlake HS (CA)
Anthony Ferrara, LHS, Riverview HS (FL)
Carlos Gutierrez, RHR, Miami (FL)
Trey Haley, RHS, Central Heights HS (TX)
Erik Johnson, RHS, Los Altos HS (CA)
Jason Knapp, RHS, North Hunterdon HS (NJ)
Matt Marquis, LF, Immaculata HS (NJ)
Daniel Marrs, RHS, James River HS (VA)
Brandon Miller, C, Woodward Academy HS (GA)
Brett Mooneyham, LHS, Buhach Colony HS (CA)
Ricky Oropresa, 1B, Etiwanda HS (CA)
Shane Peterson, RF, Long Beach State
J.P. Ramirez, LF, Canyon HS (TX)
Xavier Scruggs, 1B, UNLV
Ryan Weber, RHS, Clearwater Central Catholic (FL)
Joe Wieland, RHS, Bishop Manogue HS (NV)
Vance Worley, RHS, Long Beach State

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

We’ve got the second half of the mock draft here for you, but you might want to take it more in spirit rather than at face value, since there’s been a lot of developments in the past 24 hours that may make this attempt moot, but one particularly that will shake up the first round. We won’t be re-mocking the whole first round, at least not with a commentary on each pick, because we’re lazy, but we did give you backup options at each pick in yesterday’s top 15 mock, so go choose your own adventure with all those options at your disposal.

So, that big news? Kevin Goldstein was the first I saw report it: Buster Posey is asking for $12 million.

I’ll give you a minute to recover.

Here’s the funny part: I heard the same rumor earlier today, somewhat in passing, when I was talking to a team official and thought it was a joke, or like the Pedro Alvarez wants $15 million rumors. Turns out it wasn’t.

So this makes your fine writer (this is Kiley writing, by the way) irresponsible that I didn’t investigate that more, but didn’t most of you say “not a chance,” or something to that effect when you first read this? I thought so.

Catch the rest of my Posey logic, a hot Tanner Scheppers rumor, and the second half of the mock draft, including Kiley’s irresponsible and embarassing stab at projecting the sandwich round, all after the jump…

(Buster Posey photo: Richard C. Lewis/WireImage.com)

This all makes some sense, given that Posey was rumored to be raising his asking price with a white-hot college postseason performance. But why $12 million? He can’t possibly think he’s going to get that number, but as alluded to in the Boras asking price story I wrote early in the draft process, you have to take advice from Public Enemy regarding completely outlandish bonus demands: Can’t Truss It.

Posey’s agents (CAA, in case you’re wondering) have a job, one they’ve proven they know how to do, and that’s to satisfy their client, which usually means getting him the most money. If he was in line for, say, $4 million at #1 and could get $6 million at a later point, and is fine with going the $6 million route (because it might not work out), the only way to get him to that team that will pay $6 million is to put out a number that will scare all the teams inbetween.

Here’s the problem: $12 million is such a ridiculous number (exactly double the record-setting amount the Orioles paid slugging catcher Matt Wieters last year), that every team knows it’s a ploy.

Now, whether it’s a ploy in an effort to get an $8 million or $5 million payday from mystery team X remains to be seen, but if a team has him atop their board, especially in a shallow draft like this one, most would take him and sort out what the real number is later.

Teams almost certainly have Posey atop their board starting at #5, maybe as early at #3, so it’s gonna take a lot of scouting directors and owners to buy into this thinly-disguised ploy to get Posey to the big hitters.

Who are these big hitters? The biggest hitters are the Red Sox at #30, the Yankees at #28, and the Tigers at #21. And they all really want a premium talent, really want catching, and have the bank account and mindset to pay whatever the number might be. Any of these three could be the team causing Posey to try to navigate his way to them. Another team could also be offering to show Posey the money, or maybe there isn’t even a concrete team they’re looking to get to, they just found out they aren’t going #1 and want to weed out the slot payers.

By the way, this is a strategy that is used commonly, and many times doesn’t become public as it has in this instance. Madison Bumgarner reportedly used it last year, but the Giants called his bluff and Bumgarner ended up getting just over slot money at #10, but not as much money as it’s understood in the industry that he would’ve gotten from a mystery team later in the draft that he was trying to get to.

Many fans hate this practice, and almost every team doesn’t like it (if not see right through it), but for the agents that are trying to do the best they can for their clients, and you can’t blame them for trying.

——————————————————————

Also, some late-breaking news from Keith Law (subscriber only): Seattle’s doctor has reportedly given the team the okay to draft Tanner Scheppers, while a number of teams are still skeptical of his health.

Scheppers has undeniable top 10 talent if 100% healthy, but I find it hard to believe that the shoulder injury that was a stress fracture that now is supposed to be some sort of labrum injury, isn’t still a big problem. A doctor can tell you that this shoulder injury is fatigue/stiffness, a rehab rather than surgery injury, but how many guys have had that diagnosis, then ended up with a torn rotator cuff in the next few months?

Law also adds that Scheppers’ advisors are asking for top-4 overall money ($2.5 million ballpark), which indicates a deal has already been struck with the always popular mystery team. Assume Scheppers is a remote option in the first round for Seattle (20), Detroit (21), the Yankees (28) and Boston (30), and could be an over-slot later round pick by almost any team.

I can’t believe any team is prepared to pay that kind of money to a guy that very well might be the next Tim Stauffer (that is, highly regarded college pitcher that had a pre-existing shoulder injury when he signed and didn’t live up to expectations). Here’s to hoping for good health to every draft prospect.

——————————————————————

It’s getting late tonight, before a long day tomorrow, so we’ll go no visual frills version for the mock…

Here’s our running top 15’s (now featuring obsolete projections!) that we’re growing on with this next 15:

Kiley’s Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay - Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Kansas City - Buster Posey, C, Florida State
4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
6. Florida -Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
7. Cincinnati - Brett Lawrie, C, Canada HS
8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
9. Washington - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
10. Houston - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
11. Texas - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
12. Oakland - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
13. St. Louis - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
14. Minnesota - Aaron Hicks, CF, California HS
15. Los Angeles - Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

Frankie’s Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay - Buster Posey, C, Florida State
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Kansas City - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
6. Florida - Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
7. Cincinnati - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
9. Washington - Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
10. Houston - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
11. Texas - Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS
12. Oakland - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
13. St. Louis - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
14. Minnesota - Zach Collier, RF, California HS
15. Los Angeles - Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS

16. Milwaukee Brewers

Frankie: Brett Lawrie, C, Canadian HS

The Brewers are rumored to be all over Lawrie and they usually are pretty creative with their picks. Lawrie is a late riser but they would not hesitate to nab him if he was still on the board.

Kiley: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS

The Brew Crew has been borderline stalking Anthony Hewitt, but he’s just really, really raw and might still there at 32. Jason Castro has been rumored here, and Zach Collier is also an option, but Jack Z loves him some prep arms and Ethan Martin is a match.

17. Toronto Blue Jays

Frankie: Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

It seems like a stereotype for the Blue Jays but the fact of the matter is that Wallace is the best hitter still on the board. And, that has nothing to do with what “type” of players they like.

Kiley: Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State

As long as Wallace is on the board and Lawrie isn’t, this is an easy one to project, given value and the Jays’ drafting history/player valuation method. You might could make a case for one of the Reese Havens/Jemile Weeks/Conor Gillaspie college infielder trio here, and the Jays have some liking for Zach Collier, but the chance they pass on Wallace in this scenario is remote.

18. New York Mets

Frankie: Jason Castro, C, Stanford

It may be a bit of an over draft but the word is that the Mets are leaning heavily towards this pick. It would be instant help to their system but Castro does not project as a star caliber player.

Kiley: Jason Castro, C, Stanford

The Mets’ liking for Castro and desire for a catcher is well known. They could aggressively alienate their fan base and take another college reliever, and it really wouldn’t be a bad move here, with Josh Fields, Andrew Cashner, and Ryan Perry all in play. As Frankie said, this may be a bit of an overdraft, and they could just grab the best prep arm and hope Castro is there at 22, but everyone wants catchers, so at some point an overdraft becomes standard and the Mets are in the right spot to beat the rush to grab Castro.

19. Chicago Cubs

Frankie: Casey Kelly, SS, Florida HS

The Cubs would like to take the best position player on the board, and if this scenario plays out, that best position player would be Kelly.

Kiley: Casey Kelly, SS, Florida HS

I agree, Kelly is the best on the board, and being a Dunedin native, fan of upside, and of two-sport athletes, Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken appears to be the type that will pay the premium to lock up Kelly. Zach Collier and local product Jake Odorizzi are both options as well.

20. Seattle Mariners

Frankie: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian

Seattle may move Cashner to a starting role if they pick him, but regardless it is his arm that they love. His huge arm fits well in either role.

Kiley : Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian

Seattle just seems like a great fit in my head for Cashner; is that weird? It’s probably just proof I think about this way too much. Seattle likes power arms, and may convert Cashner to the rotation, or may put him on the Morrow fast-track to prop up the big league bullpen. What we’re sure of is that he’ll throw really hard.

21. Detroit Tigers

Frankie: Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia

There doesn’t appear to be any big names falling into the laps of the Tigers this year. They may have to turn towards a guy that could help them quickly, like Fields.

Kiley : Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS

Josh Fields is a great fit here, but David Chadd can’t pass up a Boras client prep arm that reportedly hit 101 mph, can he? It just seems too good to be true. Fields and Perry both wouldn’t surprise me at this point.

22. New York Mets

Frankie: Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State

New York is looking to add some powerful bats to their farm system and Davis could be the best cure for that problem at this point in the first round.

Kiley : Zach Collier, RF, California HS

Collier could just as easily go 13th, or even 9th, but someone has to slip with all these guys grouped together, and Collier drew the short stick in this scenario, that admittedly has about a 0% chance of happening with this confusing draft. But if you’re reading a mock draft, you aren’t concerned with accuracy, are you? Collier could slip even farther; if the Mets take Castro at 18, they may go college reliever at 22.

23. San Diego Padres

Frankie: Lance Lynn, RHP, Mississippi

In a year that has very few good college arms, San Diego is very limited in their selection. They still would like a college arm and Lynn’s outstanding performance down the stretch could put him back into the first round.

Kiley: Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina

The Padres typically don’t go prep arm or college reliever high, the two things available at this pick. They also tend to value players differently than other teams, making Frankie’s Lance Lynn projection a possibility. The Red Sox love Reese Havens, but so do the Pads and Tribe, and there’s a chance he could be converted to catcher, which would make him a steal here, given that the bat is better than Jason Castro and the arm might be also.

24. Philadelphia Phillies

Frankie: Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF, California HS

This one makes a lot of sense. The Phils historically like to pick toolsy, athletic prospects and they could get creative in how they want to develop a talent like Hicks.

Kiley : Anthony Hewitt, CF, Connecticut HS

The Phillies love them some toolsy prep hitters, and Hewitt has his picture next to that in the dictionary. That is, if the term toolsy prep hitter was in the dictionary. The Phils don’t seem to be on the college relievers and Jake Odorizzi may be an option, but Philly tends to go bat high (except when a talent like Joe Savery falls into their lap, like last year).

25. Colorado Rockies

Frankie: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

Melville could be a very tough sign if he doesn’t get top 15 type money. But, all indications are that Colorado wants to take the best prep arm on the board. That could be Melville or Odorizzi.

Kiley: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS

The Rockies have had all kinds of scouting heat on Odorizzi leading up to the draft and he could go as high as 15 to the Dodgers, so they’re relieved to see him on the board here at 25. I’m not even sure who I’d project here if Odorizzi wasn’t around, probably Hewitt or Collier, who are both gone in my scenario.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks

Frankie: Anthony Hewitt, CF, Connecticut HS

Hewitt is ultimate high risk, high reward player. Someone will take a big gamble and a couple scouts we spoke to made this connection.

Kiley: Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia

The D’Backs get a break here with a good value and a guy that can step into their bullpen and pitch high-leverage innings in a pennant race. Ryan Perry is a fit here as well, but the D’Backs like a little track record on their college picks, which Fields has.

27. Minnesota Twins

Frankie: Isaac Galloway, OF, Los Osos HS

Minnesota never shies away from risky picks. Ben Revere was a shocker last year but they loved his athleticism and upside. Galloway fits that mold as well.

Kiley : Brett DeVall, LHP, Florida HS

The Twins have been on DeVall this season and either he or Galloway really fits their mold of toolsy, up the middle hitters and advanced feel pitchers. Either is an option here, and the best players left are mostly college relievers and infielders, which the Twins don’t normally take.

28. New York Yankees

Frankie: Mike Montgomery, LHP, Hart HS

The Yankees might not be able to flex their financial muscles this year since there doesn’t appear to be any big names dropping to them. This could be the year to finally help a weakness and add a high upside lefty.

Kiley: Alex Meyer, RHP, Indiana HS

The Yankees have a few options here; college reliever, raw starters, advanced corner bats. They’d really love to see any of the signability guys fall, like Cole, Hosmer, Crow, or Alonso, and would be especially psyched to get ahold of Casey Kelly, who they’ve coveted for some time (like the Tigers) or even more so if Buster Posey somehow makes it to 28; Brian Cashman might do a backflip. I can’t see the Yankees going with a reliever with their first pick, and the corner bats don’t profile to ever start in Yankee Stadium. So, of those raw starters there is one signability pick in Boras client Alex Meyer, lefty Mike Montgomery, and college righty Brad Holt, who the Yanks have been following closely. I’ll go with the high upside Boras arm, because anyone is signable for the Bombers. That being said, Montgomery is a distinct possibility here.

29. Cleveland Indians

Frankie: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami

Cleveland puts a premium on finding and producing polished position players. Many sources have linked Weeks to them throughout this draft season.

Kiley: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona

The Indians could go Jemile Weeks or Conor Gillaspie here, and Frankie was clearly thinking that, but I think they’ll want to shore up their bullpen with an instant impact reliever that has hit 100 in postseason play and has shown a Lidge-esque slider at times.

30. Boston Red Sox

Frankie: Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State

Boston has been outstanding at scouting and developing hitters. They were on Gillaspie in the Cape and have liked him ever since.

Kiley: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona

Boston could go in any number of directions here, with a flexible philosophy and most players they’re rumored to like off the board. It appears to boil down to college relievers and college hitters with what’s on the board for them here. Jemile Weeks, Conor Gillaspie, Aaron Weatherford, Ike Davis, and David Cooper are all options, along with a few prep arms. How’s that for a cop-out? I just have an inkling the Sox want another ring and a lefty reliever that hits 97 with a filthy bender, whose dad works at ESPN, whom Peter Gammons gushes about…it just makes too much sense.

And now, brace yourselves for Kiley’s completely irresponsible stab at the supplemental round, sans commentary…

31. Minnesota - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State

32. Milwaukee - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (FL)

33. New York Mets - Tyler Sample, RHP, Colorado HS

34. Philadelphia - Issac Galloway, OF, California HS

35. Milwaukee - Aaron Weatherford, RHP, Mississippi State

36. Kansas City - Mike Montgomery, LHP, California HS

37. San Francisco - David Cooper, 1B, California

38. Houston - Brad Holt, RHP, UNC-Wilmington

39. St. Louis - Zach Putnam, RHP, Michigan

40. Atlanta - Xavier Avery, OF, Georgia HS

41. Chicago Cubs - Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State

42. San Diego - Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State

43. Arizona - Ross Seaton, RHP, Texas HS

44. New York Yankees - Brett Marshall, RHP, Texas HS

45. Boston - Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine

46. San Diego - Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana

So, what’s coming tomorrow as far as real-time draft coverage? Well, I’m done promising things, so just show up, and I promise there will be some interactive elements, a draft blog of some kind, and more information. And I might make another Public Enemy reference…it’ll be draft-tastic!

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

It is the eve of the most highly-awaited day for all of us weird people that follow the MLB Draft. Here at SaberScouting, we’ve decided to celebrate Draft Day Eve by breaking out our crystal ball and projecting the first 15 picks of Thursday’s draft. Why just 15, you ask?

Well, we were swamped with other work tonight, but wanted to get some projections out for the readers, so we’ll give you the top 15 picks now, and then later today will post the second 15 picks, and possibly the supplemental round if we’re feeling daring. Or if the readers show up at our doors with torches.

And while we’re in the festive mood, I’ll ask for two things for my second televised draft experience.

Here’s to hoping Chris Berman doesn’t gets on camera and spill the picks 10 seconds before they’re announced. And here’s to hoping Keith Law or Jim Callis step up and make a draft day trade to give us some vintage TV helmet hair that the draft so richly deserves.

For reference’s sake, here’s our first mock draft.

So, follow us down into the rabbit hole of projection, hitability and fringiness, all after the jump…

(Yonder Alonso Cape League picture: The College Baseball Blog)

#1 - Tampa Bay Rays

Frankie’s Projection: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

Kiley’s Projection: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)

Frankie: Posey, from all indications, still seems to have the inside track. Beckham fits their profile of past drafts but I’m sticking with what I’ve consistently heard all spring. They love Posey and he’s done nothing to change their minds.

Kiley: Looks like I’m going to be the wordy one. Beckham seems to have been the favorite for some time now, and is atop the SaberScouting Top 100, but not without a late charge from Buster Posey, who is hitting out of his mind in the college postseason. The decision appears to come down to those two, and both are at positions of need for the Rays, but the choice comes down to one question: upside or probability? Tampa’s track record says best available, with a lean toward the toolsy athletic type, and everything I’ve heard indicates Beckham is the guy. That being said, it’s a narrow choice, it’s impossible not to like Buster Posey, and scouting director R.J. Harrison very well may prefer Posey straight-up. This performance may have helped Beckham, and here’s the indication that the Beckham family is getting.

An enterprising Rays fan over at great blog DRaysBay (Josh Downie, to be exact), gives us a sneak peak at the right, into the alternate universe where Frankie is correct.

#2 - Pittsburgh Pirates

Frankie’s Projection: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

Kiley’s Projection: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

Frankie: There doesn’t seem to be much reason to disagree on this one. Finally, it looks like the Pirates will do right by their fan base and take the best player on the board. Don’t think for a second it won’t cost them though. It may be a serious challenge to sign him. There’s been no buzz to say they’ll go any other direction with this pick.

Kiley: Pittsburgh needs to show it’s fans that it is serious about winning, and the former MLB slot-enforcing czar, Frank Coonelly, is now in the front office for the Pirates and says they’ll take the best available player. After last year’s passing on Matt Wieters fiasco, due to a large pricetag shopped by Scott Boras, they won’t make the same mistake twice.

#3 - Kansas City Royals

Frankie’s Projection: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)

Kiley’s Projection: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

Frankie: This is where the scenarios begin to really diverge and things get very sticky. I have to stick with my original thoughts on this, though. The Royals know how to scout hitters and know a good one when they see one. Hosmer is going to cost them and that could be the only thing to interfere with this perfect match. I just don’t see this not playing out. Hosmer could slide a long way if he doesn’t go here. We reported on Hosmer’s reported price tag in a prior article. It’s great being self-referential.

Kiley: There has been a lot of pro-Eric Hosmer talk and anti-Posey talk at this pick, and with last year’s surprising pick of a polished HS hitter represented by Scott Boras (Mike Moustakas), there’s no telling where KC goes this time around, but Hosmer’s certainly in play. For me, the Royals have stockpiled corner bats in recent years, and, at a pick like this, with a guy as special, high probability, and scorching hot at the most premium of positiosn, like Posey, you can’t let him past, even if insiders will tell you Posey isn’t the guy and he’s raising his bonus expectations.

#4 - Baltimore Orioles

Frankie’s Projection: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

Kiley’s Projection: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

Frankie: I’m not exactly being gutsy on this projection. It really makes too much sense though. The Orioles have been on Matusz all spring and really, a guy of this caliber should not last longer than this. He gets surprisingly overlooked at times. A polished lefty with strikeout stuff and reasonable bonus demands is very hard to pass. The Orioles won’t.

Kiley: It seems like this is the only pick in the draft that everyone has projected the same guy for a few months. Matusz still isn’t a cinch here, as there has been talk of Justin Smoak, Gordon Beckham, and Posey (if he falls), but it appears that talk out of O’s camp is they want a college arm. Some may make a case for Aaron Crow if that’s the criteria, but Matusz has a chance to be a special top of the rotation lefty, and Baltimore has been tied to Matusz for some time; for good reason, it’s the right pick here for them.

#5 - San Francisco Giants

Frankie’s Projection: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

Kiley’s Projection: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

Frankie: The buzz all spring is that the Giants would like to grab one of the elite hitters in this class. Posey could be gone as well as Alvarez, so this really makes sense. From all indications, they prefer Smoak over Alonso and Beckham. This could change only if someone like Tim Beckham drops into their laps.

Kiley: The Giants have actually come out and said, not even anonymously, in the local papers that they want a polished bat at this pick. Smoak, for me is the best pick for that criteria, and personally, I only have Kyle Skipworth a hair ahead of Smoak on the SaberScouting Top 100, and the Giants need an impact bat, and fast. Combine that with talk that the Giants aren’t on Skipworth, but are all over Smoak, and this looks like an easy one. Which, of course, means I’ll be wrong. There’s some talk of Posey here if he slips, and also Gordon Beckham.

#6 - Florida Marlins

Frankie’s Projection: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)

Kiley’s Projection: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)

Frankie: This is my first really “out there” idea. Tim Beckham dropping to sixth overall hasn’t been considered much and I myself even mentioned him as a possibility with the fifth overall pick. For no real reason, it is possible that he could slip here, but no further. If he is, there is no chance the Marlins don’t take him.

Kiley: Florida is one of those teams that is hard to figure as they consistently go off the map with personnel moves, although usually make the right move. They’d love to get Posey to slip to them here, which I can’t see happening, and the Marlins may wet their pants if Beckham slips, as in Frankie’s scenario. Florida has long been tied to Kyle Skipworth, as he can help solve their ongoing catching woes, and for me, has the highest upside in the draft. The Marlins are also on a quicker moving bat, local slugger Yonder Alonso, but if Skipworth is there and no one crazy slips, his Brian McCann-like package of upside is the pick.

#7 - Cincinnati Reds

Frankie’s Projection: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

Kiley’s Projection: Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood HS (Canada)

Frankie: There were a lot of ways to go on this one. The Reds usually do their best to take the best player on the board though. Crow is that guy. He had some problems in the middle of his spring season but has bounced back nicely. They could look at Brett Lawrie for this spot also, but that is a real long shot.

Kiley: As Frankie mentioned, there’s a late rumor going around that the spot Lawrie’s helium will park him is right here at #7. That idea seemed laughable about a month ago, but Lawrie wasn’t joking around when he took his impact bat and plus-plus power to spring training camps all over the south (and the Dominican) and hit homer after homer, many off of major league pitchers on rehab. One stretch had 8 jacks in 8 days, one had 5 bombs in a doubleheader, and all of it has been in front of a large group of a curious scouting community. There obviously a good chance Lawrie won’t go here (although he probably doesn’t get past the Twins at 14, and certainly not the Jays at 17) and in that case, the Reds have been on Gordon Beckham and Aaron Crow, who would both be fine choices.

#8 - Chicago White Sox

Frankie’s Projection: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Kiley’s Projection: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Frankie: The White Sox have loved what they’ve seen from Beckham since he was in the Cape Cod League last summer. He’d be a nice fit for their organization and could move up quickly. Typically they have drafted guys with big results even if there have been some doubts about his overall game. Beckham has questions about his defense and swing but has put up massive numbers.

Kiley: Brett Wallace has been rumored to the guy at this spot for as long as I can remember, which is probably a few months (not. enough.sleep.). However, lately the Sox appeared to have cooled and on him starting following Beckham as a premium position guy who could step into Orlando Cabrera’s place quickly after he leaves. I think the Sox lean to the shortstop here, but Wallace is a distinct possibility, and so are the remaining power arms, Aaron Crow and Shooter Hunt, along with an off-the-board rumor of college catcher Jason Castro.

#9 - Washington Nationals

Frankie’s Projection: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)

Kiley’s Projection: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)

Frankie: Skipworth had a huge performance at his recent workout for the Nationals and it’s looking more and more likely that this is a match made in heaven. There have been rumors that Skipworth could slip but given the long running rumor of this connection, it is too much to ignore and the pre-draft workout could just be the icing on the cake.

Kiley: In my scenario, the Nats could really go in any direction. There’s power college arms Aaron Crow and Shooter Hunt along with Boras-repped high school bat Eric Hosmer. And the Nats are just the team who would go for a toolsy high schooler in Aaron Hicks or Gerrit Cole. They’ve also been tied to Zach Collier after his big workout in Washington, and the same goes for Skipworth (who’s gone in my scenario). So, how do I decide who the Nats go with? Highest ceiling. Hosmer has been watched closely since before he could drive and he fits the Nats approach of find the best talent and work out the money later.

#10 - Houston Astros

Frankie’s Projection: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

Kiley’s Projection: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

Frankie: The Astros are looking far and wide for a big arm to draft and Hunt seems like the perfect match. Not only is he a big, power arm but he could also move fairly quickly up the ladder. Hunt should be on the table for them to grab if they want him or they could go with the likes of someone like Gerrit Cole or Aaron Crow if he falls to them.

Kiley: And, in my scenario, Aaron Crow falls to them. He’s slipped some with reported high bonus demands and stuff that faded down the stretch, but he’s a potential frontline arm, despite some funk in the arm action. The Astros could go bat here with Yonder Alonso, opt for a power college arm alternative in Shooter Hunt, or maybe pop Boras-advised, polarizing prep hurler Gerrit Cole.

#11 - Texas Rangers

Frankie’s Projection: Gerrit Cole, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS

Kiley’s Projection: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane

Frankie: If this isn’t an ideal match, then I don’t know what is. The Rangers have never been afraid to take power arms in the prep ranks with makeup concerns and Cole may be the best arm in the draft. They are also, historically, not at all bothered by working with Scott Boras. If he doesn’t go here, he could fall but this really seems like a great landing place for Cole.

Kiley: I would agree that Cole is an easy choice here, but I think Texas opts for a college arm here with all those prep arms coming along slowly. And their GM tells me (okay, tells another reporter) that college arm sounds great to him. Texas drafted Hunt out of high school, still needs pitching, might not want another prep arm, but still wants upside. I think Hunt might be the perfect pick here, rather than Cole.

#12 - Oakland Athletics

Frankie’s Projection: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

Kiley’s Projection: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)

Frankie: This is one I’m surprised more people don’t talk about. I just don’t see Alonso, a first baseman that is not quite the hitter that Smoak is (of course that is debatable to some), going in the top ten picks. And, his place discipline seems like a neat match for Oakland. If he did last this far, I can’t imagine them letting him slide any further. Not to mention, he should be signable for slot dollars.

Kiley: Alonso certainly is a nice fit here, and Daric Barton isn’t really the type to preclude you from drafting another 1B high. And not like Billy Beane would worry about such a thought; he can trade anything! I think this might be a spot for Brett Lawrie if he doesn’t go #7 to Cincinnati, as Oakland loves drafting catchers and advanced power bats. There’s also some talk that this could be a landing spot for Florida prep shortstop Casey Kelly, as the A’s have shown some interest and have broken out of their recent college-only ways, but Alonso and Lawrie are likely higher on their list.

#13 - St. Louis Cardinals

Frankie’s Projection: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

Kiley’s Projection: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky

Frankie: Friedrich has long been linked to Oakland essentially by default but if he does indeed slip by them, St. Louis is probably an even more logical landing spot for the curveball artist. St. Louis is said to be on the hunt for an advanced college arm and Friedrich would fit that bill. I’d be very surprised if Friedrich falls any further than this spot.

Kiley: St. Louis has been relatively conservative drafting under Jeff Luhnow, with mostly college picks and the occasional prep hitter mixed in. Some locals may call for hometown product Tim Melville, but there’s no history with the Cards and prep pitcher to base that prediction on. I have the Redbirds sticking with the college route, grabbing a small school lefty in Friedrich that gets a lot of Barry Zito comps for his average fastball, good change, and knockout curve that’s the best in the draft. This one almost seems too easy to me, look for us to be wrong, maybe Brett Wallace or Zach Collier with Tim Melville as the darkhorse.

#14 - Minnesota Twins

Frankie’s Projection: Zach Collier, RF, Chino Hills HS (CA)

Kiley’s Projection: Aaron Hicks, CF, Wilson HS (CA)

Frankie: The Twins are as good as any team at scouting the high school ranks and Collier has emerged in a big way this spring. It seems logical that Minnesota would be right on the case. Minnesota has made some very surprising picks over the years, especially last year in the first round with Ben Revere. This could be a real wildcard selection, someone we may not even be thinking of. Brett Lawrie might be a fit here as well.

Kiley: As Frankie says, Minnesota leans to the high school/tools end of the spectrum, frequently goes off-the-board, and usually does well in the draft. Brett Lawrie is definitely in play here, and I would think is the pick if he’s available. In my scenario he isn’t, and Collier is a distinct possibility, but may be too raw at the plate for Minnesota’s liking. Casey Kelly fits great here if the Twins would go over slot, but that’s unlikely. I wouldn’t be suprised if Brett Wallace, Tim Melville, Aaron Hicks, or Ethan Martin were the pick, either. I’ll go with Aaron Hicks here, and say the Twins chase the upside, and believe they’ve got a faster version of Torii Hunter with an 80 arm that could play on the mound. They may even draft him as a pitcher rather than a center fielder, as Hicks reportedly is more open to signing as a pitcher.

#15 - Los Angeles Dodgers

Frankie’s Projection: Ethan Martin, RHP, Stephen’s County HS (GA)

Kiley’s Projection: Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS (MO)

Frankie: It’s a pretty safe bet to say that the Dodgers will likely go with a prep arm. Martin is drawing more and more attention for his efforts on the hill and would fit neatly into what the Dodgers tend to do. They have a history drafting two way players and they could use Martin in either capacity. Jake Odorizzi and Tim Melville could also fit into this spot.

Kiley: This is yet another spot that could go in a number of directions, and at this point in the draft, that’s a function of a glut of similarly-talented guys. You’ll hear this, I’ll guess, 400 times on the ESPN telecast; TV loves sweeping generalizations, but this one is probably true. Zach Collier is a local kid that again wowed the Dodgers in workouts (he did that for a number of teams), and Gerrit Cole is another local kid, but his funky arm action and Boras representation may scare the Dodgers off. I agree with Frankie that Martin is a natural fit for Logan White, as he loves power prep arms (Withrow, Billingsley, Kershaw, Elbert) and power third base bats (Bell, DeWitt, LaRoche), and two-way athletes (Loney). That being said, White does skew to more projectable frames and cleaner deliveries, isn’t afraid to take a guy 5-10 picks earlier than people expect, looks at the full body of work rather than taking the hot name, and has already taken two first rounders out of the Missouri prep ranks (Elbert, DeWitt). All of that thinking out loud leads me to Melville.

Kiley’s Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay - Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Kansas City - Buster Posey, C, Florida State
4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
6. Florida -Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
7. Cincinnati - Brett Lawrie, C, Canada HS
8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
9. Washington - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
10. Houston - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
11. Texas - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
12. Oakland - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
13. St. Louis - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
14. Minnesota - Aaron Hicks, CF, California HS
15. Los Angeles - Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

Frankie’s Mock Draft
1. Tampa Bay - Buster Posey, C, Florida State
2. Pittsburgh - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Kansas City - Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
4. Baltimore - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
5. San Francisco - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
6. Florida - Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
7. Cincinnati - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
9. Washington - Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
10. Houston - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
11. Texas - Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS
12. Oakland - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
13. St. Louis - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
14. Minnesota - Zach Collier, RF, California HS
15. Los Angeles - Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS

We’ll be checking back in later today with the rest of our first-round projection. Be sure to tell us why we’re crazy in the comments and come back after the draft has happened and make fun some more. That’s what this is all about.

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

Bad news first: there’s going to be a delay with the formal draft capsules and downloadable spreadsheet, but look for those later today or early tomorrow.

The good news? The SaberScouting Top 100 is hot off the presses, and while it will change as information comes to our attention, the final one should look pretty close to this.

We just wanted to get this edited version of our top 25 to the readers, and went ahead and tacked another 75 on to give you a few days to digest it, with Thursday’s draft quickly approaching.

This ranking also sets the stage for our updated mock draft, and various prospect profiles, scouting reports, statistical breakdowns, buzz updates, all that kind of stuff will be coming at you.

In these rankings, you’ll find the top 100 with just the ranking, name, projected position, and school. Anything else you’d want to know is probably on the way. Take a look at what we’ve got so far after the jump…

(Jemile Weeks photo: Eric Francis, AP)

SaberScouting.com Draft Top 100

1. Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
2. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Buster Posey, C, Florida State
4. Brian Matusz, LHS, San Diego
5. Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
6. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
7. Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
8. Aaron Crow, RHS, Missouri
9. Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
10. Shooter Hunt, RHS, Tulane
11. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
12. Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS (FL)
13. Christian Friedrich, LHS, Eastern Kentucky
14. Brett Wallace, 1B, Arizona State
15. Zach Collier, RF, Chino Hills HS (CA)
16. Ethan Martin, RHS, Stephen’s County HS (GA)
17. Aaron Hicks, CF, Wilson HS (CA)
18. Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood SS (CAN)
19. Josh Fields, RHR, Georgia
20. Andrew Cashner, RHR, Texas Christian
21. Tim Melville, RHS, Holt HS (MO)
22. Gerrit Cole, RHS, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
23. Reese Havens, 2B, South Carolina
24. Mike Montgomery, LHS, Hart HS (CA)
25. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami (FL)
26. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
27. Jason Castro, C, Stanford
28. Alex Meyer, RHS, Greensburg HS (IN)
29. Robbie Ross, LHS, Lexington Christian Academy HS (KY)
30. Aaron Weatherford, RHR, Mississippi State
31. Zach Putnam, RHS, Michigan
32. Ross Seaton, RHS, Second Baptist HS (TX)
33. Brad Holt, RHS, UNC-Wilmington
34. Ryan Perry, RHR, Arizona
35. Jake Odorizzi, RHS, Highland HS (IL)
36. David Cooper, 1B, California
37. Isaac Galloway, CF, Los Osos HS (CA)
38. Sonny Gray, RHR, Smyrna HS (TN)
39. Brett Marshall, RHS, Sterling HS (TX)
40. Brett DeVall, LHS, Niceville HS (FL)
41. Wade Miley, LHS, Southeastern Louisiana
42. Dennis Raben, RF, Miami (FL)
43. Zach Stewart, RHR, Texas Tech
44. Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State
45. Nick Maronde, LHS, Lexington Catholic HS (KY)
46. Tyson Ross, RHR, California
47. Daniel Schlereth, LHR, Arizona
48. Roger Kieschnick, RF, Texas Tech
49. James Darnell, RF, South Carolina
50. Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Howard JC (TX)
51. Kyle Lobstein, LHS, Coconino HS (AZ)
52. Tyler Stovall, LHS, Hokes Bluff HS (AL)
53. Tyler Sample, RHS, Mullen HS (CO)
54. Bryan Price, RHR, Rice
55. Brett Hunter, RHR, Pepperdine
56. Niko Vazquez, 2B, Durango HS (NV)
57. Stephen Fife, RHS, Utah
58. Adrian Nieto, C, American Heritage HS (FL)
59. Chris Carpenter, RHS, Kent State
60. Tanner Scheppers, RHS, Fresno State
61. Jamie Mallard, 1B, Middleton HS (FL)
62. Brent Warren, CF, Xavier HS (IA)
63. Kyle Weiland, RHR, Notre Dame
64. Anthony Hewitt, CF, Salisbury HS (CT)
65. Tyler Chatwood, RHS, East Valley HS (CA)
66. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Pitt CC (NC)
67. Daniel Webb, RHS, Heath HS (KY)
68. Evan Frederickson, LHR, San Francisco
69. Cody Satterwhite, RHR, Mississippi
70. Tim Murphy, LHS, UCLA
71. Zack Cox, 3B, Pleasure Ridge Park HS (KY)
72. Jaff Decker, RF, Sunrise Mountain HS (AZ)
73. Brad Hand, LHS, Chaska HS (MN)
74. Austin Dicharry, RHS, Klein-Collins HS (TX)
75. Petey Paramore, C, Arizona State
76. Lance Lynn, RHS, Mississippi
77. Aaron Shafer, RHS, Wichita State
78. Jordy Mercer, SS, Oklahoma State
79. Scott Bittle, RHR, Mississippi
80. Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
81. Scott Green, RHS, Kentucky
82. Anthony Gose, LHR, Bellflower HS (CA)
83. Seth Lintz, RHS, Marshall County HS (KY)
84. Destin Hood, CF, St. Paul’s Episcopal HS (AL)
85. Logan Forsythe, 2B, Arkansas
86. Brett Jacobson, RHR, Vanderbilt
87. Donnie Roach, RHS, Bishop Gorman HS
88. Ryan Flaherty, 2B, Vanderbilt
89. Zeke Spruill, RHS, Kell HS (GA)
90. Eric Thames, LF, Pepperdine
91. Ryan Westmoreland, CF, Portsmouth HS (RI)
92. Bobby Lanigan, RHR, Adelphi
93. Bobbu Bundy, RHS, Sperry HS (OK)
94. Robbie Grossman, LF, Cy-Fair HS (TX)
95. D.J. Mitchell, RHR, CLemson
96. Josh Lindblom, RHR, Purdue
97. Andrew Liebel, RHS, Long Beach State
98. Xavier Avery, CF, Cedar Grove HS (GA)
99. Scott Gorgen, RHS, UC-Irvine
100. Ryan Weber, RHS, Clearwater Central Catholic (FL)

Other Names To Watch

Jay Austin, CF, North Atlanta HS (GA)
Zach Cone, CF, Parkview HS (GA)
Jordan Danks, CF, TExas
Cutter Dykstra, CF, Westlake HS (CA)
Anthony Ferrara, LHS, Riverview HS (FL)
Carlos Gutierrez, RHR, Miami (FL)
Jason Knapp, RHS, North Hunterdon HS (NJ)
Daniel Marrs, RHS, James River HS (VA)
Brandon Miller, C, Woodward Academy HS (GA)
Brett Mooneyham, LHS, Buhach Colony HS (CA)
Shane Peterson, RF, Long Beach State
J.P. Ramirez, LF, Canyon HS (TX)
Xavier Scruggs, 1B, UNLV
Blake Tekotte, CF, Miami (FL)
Joe Wieland, RHS, Bishop Manogue HS (NV)
Vance Worley, RHS, Long Beach State

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The first in Saber-Scouting’s series of prospect profiles will start out of order with our #2 draft prospect, much-ballyhooed Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez.

Alvarez has been on the prospect radar since entering his senior year in high school in the Bronx at Horace Mann High. He was a 14th round pick by the Red Sox in the 2005 draft and was considered a 3rd-to-5th round prospect as a power hitting corner infielder with limited experience that most thought was bound for first base. His asking price with a Vanderbilt scholarship in hand was higher than teams wanted to offer and he went to school.

The rest is well-publicized, as Alvarez was one of the top hitters in college baseball in his freshman year, hitting .329 with 22 home runs and winning Baseball America’s Freshman of the Year award, along with being honored to BA’s All-American First Team. Also, due to his athleticism and work at the position, Alvarez’s defensive ability now allows most scouts to project him as a major league third baseman.

Alvarez is represented by super-agent Scott Boras (just a super-advisor for the draft’s purposes) and we’ve reported at Saber-Scouting that Boras has floated a $9.5 million big league deal asking price, while some insiders have been told the price is as high as $15 million.

Catch the rest of the in-depth Pedro Alvarez prospect profile after the jump…

(Alvarez photo credit: USA Baseball)

The real asking price was always more likely at the lower-end of that range, but even moreso now because of Alvarez’s mid-season broken hamate bone in his right hand.

A broken hamate bone is a somewhat common baseball injury, and Alvarez is now 100% recovered medically after over a month in rehab, but isn’t yet the hitter he was before the injury. There is very often a full recovery to previous form with hamate injuries, but it is difficult to know when the power and timing that aren’t there right now, will return.

These issues were particularly evident last weekend at the SEC Tournament where Alvarez was tentative and uncomfortable at the plate, particularly against left-handed pitching, en route to a 3-for-21 performance in the tournament.

Despite some concerns at the present moment, Pedro Alvarez has an impact bat with a great track record against elite pitching and with wood bats, an average or better defensive package at the hot corner, and great makeup, creating a rare package that teams will pay almost any price to get into their organization.

Pedro Alvarez Links

Scouting Reports

- BA Scouting Report (Baseball America - Subscription Required)

- MLB.com Scouting Report (with video) (MLB.com)

- Brewerfan.net Scouting Report (BrewerFan.net)

Draft News

- Alvarez still in play for #1? (Jonathan Mayo’s Draft Blog)

- Baseball America Draft Tracker (Baseball America)

- Pirates Likely To Draft Alvarez (MLB Trade Rumors)

- Rumored Price for Boras Clients Surface (Saber-Scouting)

- Pirates Zero-In on First Round Pick (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

College and HS Links

- 2008 Updated Vanderbilt Statistics (VU Commodores.com)

- Vanderbilt Site Profile (VU Commodores.com)

- Alvarez Injures Hand (Baseball America)

- 2008 Pre-Season All-Americans (Baseball America)

- Alvarez Wins BA’s Freshman of the Year (Baseball America)

- High School Showcase Profiles (Perfect Game)

- Pedro Alvarez Wikipedia Entry (Wikipedia)

Saber-Scouting Prospect Capsule

This is posted on the Draft Rankings page, but I thought I’d go ahead and post it here as well to get everything in the same place.

2. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
Bio: 6′2, 212, Bats L, Throws R, 21 years old
The Skinny: The consensus top prospect at the start of the year has shown an impact bat that makes scouts salivate, but they have been salivating less lately due to a mid-season hand injury sapping some of Alvarez’s power and hurting his timing. He’s hardly falling down draft boards with a special bat and a track record with wood bats to match, but a possible move to 1B and the $9.5 million demands advisor Scott Boras has floated could make teams pause. That being said, he’s got a special bat and won’t get out of the top 3.
Pros: Bat, Power, Track Record
Cons: Boras, Injury, Position
Comparison: Lefty-Hitting Aramis Ramirez
Adjusted OFP: 62

Pedro Alvarez Saber-Scouting Card

Click the box below for a clearer, enlarged version. We tried to fit a lot of good info into a slick presentation with the conventional tools grades as well.

Pedro Alvarez Statistical Breakdown

Click stat line for clearer, enlarged version. Click here for Vanderbilt’s updated 2008 stats.

A few notes about these statistics:

- I don’t have any detailed conference or draft prospect offensive averages to compare with, but Alvarez’s home field is a moderate pitcher’s park with a park factor of 90 (runs depressed by 10% from NCAA average). His batting averages and walk rates are strong for all five seasons listed (above .300 and 10% in the SEC is strong), but his junior season is expectedly the weakest of the bunch.

- As mentioned in the scouting report, the strikeout numbers are high for a top prospect. Many top prospects, even power hitters in big conferences like Miami’s Yonder Alonso and South Carolina’s Justin Smoak, have a good number more walks than strikeouts (Alonso and Smoak both have more than twice as many walks than strikeouts), and while Alvarez hasn’t been that guy, he has been close to even at times.

Why am I making anything of this one type of out that any sabermetric beginner knows is an overblown problem? Because with college hitters, it is widely known (I’m working on getting a formal, publishable proof for the site, but the proof is out there and multiple teams have it) by many teams and insiders that strikeouts is the strongest, and maybe only, college hitting stat that has a strong correlation to major league performance (or appearance). As you might guess, it strongly suggests stuggling to make contact. I don’t have detailed enough information to know what Alvarez’s specific profile normally projects as—I’d assume there aren’t many comparables.

While Alvarez’s K rate is high, almost alarmingly so for a top-5 pick, every other indicator is good to great, and it may just be a sign of his late-count hitting style, which racks up a number of three true outcomes (K, BB, HR). I’m cautious in projecting Alvarez given this information, but still bullish on him overall as a draft prospect; more things to like are coming up.

- The power numbers are clearly very strong, and also consistent; a very good indicator that almost all of Alvarez’s raw power is coming into play in game situations, or at least the same amount of the raw power has been in play his whole college career. There really isn’t a lot to see in Alvarez’s stats other than the K rate that are either notable relative to his scouting reports, or especially abnormal. That’s yet another thing that contributes to Alvarez’s high probabilty to be at least a good big league bat.

Video/Mechanical Breakdown

Here’s a YouTube video I posted recently of some clips from Alvarez’s Commodores versus South Carolina in the SEC Tournament last week. I put a nice defensive play on a bunt at the beginning to illustrate what I’ve seen and heard about Alvarez being able to stick at third base. What followa is a side view of Alvarez’s swing on a double to right field, shown at three different speeds.

A few notes about the video:

- The first play on the video, a defensive play on a bunt, is exactly the kind of play that scouts pay close attention to as far as projecting whether a player can stick at third base. Alvarez’s arm was clearly enough on this play, and his instincts, positioning, and quick feet allowed him to make this play, and will help him make comparable difficult plays. This is a little glimpse into the handful of plays the help form a scout’s opinion on grading a player’s defensive ability.

- The swing…wow, it’s just really good.

- Sorry, I just needed to make sure I emphasized that point.

Alvarez starts his swing with an effective set-up that allows him to make a full weight shift very quietly—he almost doesn’t move his head and hands at all.

I like that Alvarez only turns his front foot 45 degrees toward the pitcher. There is a fad among hitters these days of turning your your front foot 90 degrees, directly at the pitcher, as you plant the foot, usually with an awkward knee cock right before foot plant, used as a timing mechanism. I don’t like the added moving parts that creates, and also the torque that it takes away from the swing by opening up the bottom half too early. There is a right way to do this, and if it is what keeps your swing from falling apart, then go for it, but I don’t like this trend. Enough of my soapbox, back to Alvarez.

He spins effectively on his front foot with his weight shifted (but not overshifted like may power hitters, Eric Hosmer for one, tend to do), and has an outstanding, under-control weight shift. Watch his hands specifically in the slowed-down video. They don’t move until they absolutely have to; one executive I talked to said Alvarez starts his hands going forward later than anyone he’s ever seen.

Part of that is good instruction, reflexes, and trusting his hands, but that’s not possible without great bat speed and a bunch of quick-twitch fibers. Along with those late-starting hands, the front side (really, the whole top half of his body) doesn’t come open at all until his legs are screaming for some action on the top half, and then he explodes on the ball that he lets get deep in the zone.

You can see these hands steady late in the swing (compare to the ready to hit position the legs are in) in the two pictures to the right. The fuzzy one is a screen grab from the YouTube video, sorry about the quality.

Alvarez starts his hips late, but still ahead of his hands to create some torque (power), but not so much that he’s sacrificing contact ability. He’s essentially rotating the same distance every hitter goes, but by waiting so late, covers the same distance in less time, thus his rotation speed is higher and helps create more power. Alvarez also gets great extension without locking himself out or arm-barring, which combined with letting the ball get so deep and exploding on it in a controlled fashion…well that’s where the power comes from with a swing that doesn’t have a ton of loft in it.

The swing path itself is direct, thought not as direct as it could be, while also not having a loop in it—really just about perfect for a power hitter. Alvarez could tweak his swing to sell out for power and likely hit 40-50 HRs at the big league level at some point, but he’s chosen a more controlled swing with a .280 to .300 average and 30 HRs peak instead. There is some loft in the swing, and some torque, but lots of backspin, bat speed, and rotational force that conspire with a still head and lack of moving parts to make the perfect storm of big power and big contact ability.

This comparison of his HS swing and college swing shows that the mechanics haven’t really changed so much as the strength and ability to carry out those mechanics effectively has improved. Alvarez just has a very natural, efficient swing that bodes well for long-term projection, as long as he’s 100% medically.

The swing is very good and really reminds me of Albert Pujols, as the swing and overall package has reminded many of the Cardinals slugger. I don’t have a clip handy, but many of the same things I’m saying could be planted in a Pujols swing breakdown and not be out of place.

I’m hesitant to make this comparison as far as a projection for Alvarez because it’s unwise to project any amatuer to be that successful in the big leagues, no matter how good they are as amateurs. Also, Alvarez is currently struggling, so you have to assume he returns to pre-injury form, which is no cinch. Along with those two reasons, there isn’t much difference between a .290 to .300 hitter and .320 to .330 hitter. Scouting-wise, they look very similar, and in the short-term the difference is luck, but in the long-term small things like effectiveness versus same-side pitching and ability to make adjustments make up that difference, and those are things we just don’t know enough about right now. So I’ll stick with .280 to .300 with 25-35 HRs at his peak.

Supplemental Videos

If you’re looking for a good idea of Pedro’s personality, some background, and a clearer (but overly zoomed-in) look at his swing, here’s a good feature from the CBS College Network:

And if you just want to see some guy yelling overrated and Pedro knocking a moonshot over everyone’s head while a road crowd goes nuts…then this video is for you.

Draft Projection

Alvarez is still in contention for the #1 overall pick to Tampa Bay, but it is more of a rumor than confirmed fact, and appears that the combination of his asking price, the Rays organizational strength with corner hitters, and his less than stellar junior year will conspire to keep him out of the Rays plans.

He is coveted by the Pirates at #2, and if he isn’t chosen by Pittsburgh it will be due to financial considerations—if there’s a coinflip with two players on their draft board, they likely go with the cheaper option.

He will not get past the #3 pick with Kansas City, as he’s all but confirmed to be in their top 2 and the Royals will pay Boras’ asking price to steal that kind of talent at #3. Kansas City is also more familiar than most teams with Boras’ tactics as he represented the Royals first round holdout last year that eventually signed, California prep IF Mike Moustakas.

Projected Pick: #2 Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected Bonus: $9.0 million, big league deal

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

We’ve been gearing up for draft season for quite some time around here, and this is the next phase of our draft information bonanza—all of which will be completely free. The latest update of our top prospect rankings and mock draft can be found on the links at the top of the page.

Today we’ve unveiled a top 25 that will swell to a top 100 in the coming days.

In the coming days, we’ll be rolling out player profiles for each of the top players with in-depth scouting information, stats, related videos, and links.

We’ll also have a few mock drafts and draft buzz updates, along with a few statistical looks at the college crop, some first-hand reports we haven’t posted yet, and a few mailbags/chats before and after the draft. Don’t hesitate to wear out our e-mail addresses listed on the About Us page.

We also will make a sortable spreadsheet version of our prospects list available for download. For the time being, here’s a screenshot of the top 25 spreadsheet.

And, of course, keep the Scouting Tutorial nearby for further explanation of our methods. All of the coming draft coverage updates will be noted on the front page.

(Pictured right: Florida prep first baseman Eric Hosmer, SaberScouting’s #10 draft prospect)

I got a chance recently to see one of the more intriguing breakout prospects of the young 2008 minor league season, Rays right-hander Jeremy Hellickson.

He has some out of this world numbers this season in the High-A Florida State League for Vero Beach (61-to-3 K/BB ratio in 51.2 IP), and has the pedigree to back it up, as an over-slot 4th round pick out of an Iowa high school in the 2005 draft.

As with most young Rays arms, the organization has wisely taken it slow with Hellickson development-wise and he’s now in High-A in his 3rd full season, but he is now primed for a season of 130-140 innings and a likely promotion to Double-A Montgomery at some point, as he has little left to prove at this level.

Hellickson has also obviously caught the eye of the Rays front office, as top team executives GM Andrew Friedman and Senior VP Gerry Hunsicker were in attendance and were visibly and audibly enthused about Hellickson’s encouraging performance.

Take a closer look at a pitcher that should be rocketing through the best minor league system in the game, after the jump…

Here’s the video I took of Hellickson from this outing. As you can tell, the focus comes and goes, but I think I made up for it by seeing him from about 14 different angles.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Vero Beach Devil Rays (Tampa Bay)

Pitch - Present/Future Grades

Fastball - 55/55
Curveball - 50/55
Changeup -50/55
Command - 50/55

Physical Description - He’s listed at 6′1 and 185 lbs, and that looks about right. There’s not much projection left and he’s filled out about as much as his frame will allow. Thin and athletic throughout, looks more like a second baseman really, but among pitchers is along the lines of Scott Kazmir or Tim Hudson.

Fastball -55/55

Worked 91 to 93 and kept the velocity late into the outing. Worked off of this pitch traditionally, getting ahead by using it aggressively early in the count and then going to the breaking ball for K’s, but would mix in the changeup to keep hitters on their toes. Flashed above-average life and command of the pitch, mostly as late run in on the hands of right-handers. Also showed some solid sink at times. Hellickson’s approach with the fastball was very impressive for a young guy with a smaller frame; to come after hitters with a big boy’s fastball and approach.

Curveball -50/55

His breaking ball is a little tough to figure out, but I identified it as a 73-75 mph loopier early-count curve with 10-to-4 slider action and a hard 77-79 mph curve that had sharper downward bite and was more of an 11-to-5 break.

The slower version had flatter break and was thrown exclusively to the arm side, indicating Hellickson wasn’t following through, making it more of a get-me-over, show pitch.

The harder version was used more often and was a late-count chase pitch that was frequently buried and was easily above-average when on. The pitch would back up and come out flat a few too many times, so the feel isn’t completely there, but over half of them were late, sharp, and overmatched FSL hitters.

Changeup - 50/55

The changeup was also advanced, and elicited some weird swings as well. It is solidly average right now and flashed above with late fade and depth with excellent deception. Like the curveball, the changeup isn’t quite there yet as he wasn’t getting both the fade and depth consistently and sailed way out of the zone at times, but the deception and potential is there, and when it’s in the zone, Hellickson again is hitting spots. It was a clear third pitch by usage, mostly to keep hitters off of expecting all fastballs before the hard curve comes out.

Mechanics

Comparing two contrasting frames like Brad Penny and Hellickson (both at right) with nearly identical mechanics belies the point I made earlier about Hellickson: that he’s a smaller guy that pitches like a big power pitcher, and has the stuff to back it up.

As for some of the technical parts of the motion, Hellickson has a real clean arm, works from a classic high 3/4 arm angle, has average deception, and while he doesn’t have great downward plane because of average height, his command and movement have given him average groundball/flyball tendencies.

Notes - It might appear easy enough to just say Hellickson is above-average across the board, as the top of the report states, but there’s a little more granularity to see on the field that just that. There’s a lot of 57.5’s on the board if I was picky enough to go to half-grades.

There are a lot of “good” pitchers in the FSL, but there’s one that will take average stuff and mix it with plus intangibles it to become a solid starter in the big leagues. Hellickson is a guy with better stuff than that merely “good” group, and also has those plus intangibles that lead me say he’ll overachieve.  Hellickson’s deameanor, approach, and feel for his craft are all very impressive.

As for the current projection, I think Hellickson could be an effective big leaguer right now, though his stuff wouldn’t allow for a huge margin of error at the major league level.  He should certainly be in the minors for a number of reasons, but should also be in Double-A for some time this season.

See SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial for an explanation of the jargon and numbers.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 57
Present Group: D, Future Group: B
Projected Role: #3 Starter
MLB ETA: Full-Time in 2010
Overall Comparison: Tim Hudson (without the plus sink on the fastball)

As mentioned in the earlier Tyler Robertson first look, he is a bit of a polarizing figure as a prospect.

Now that I’ve given you plenty of time to peruse the video of his motion (that’ll be my excuse for the delay in posting the report), I’ll drop in with my thoughts on what I saw from the big lefty.

The outing wasn’t bad from a statistical perspective, but we all know better than to judge ability from a low-minors pitcher purely from their stats.

I saw some good things that bode well for projecting the lefty into the big leagues, and some thing that make me and others think he could fizzle in the minors.

So, this makes for a perfect opportunity for you, the reader, to take the information at your disposal to make your own call on what Robertson will become, with a SaberScouting first, a reader poll.

Come look at our shiny new toy, oh, and a scouting report too, after the jump…

See SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial for an explanation of this jargon and numbers.

Tyler Robertson, LHP, Ft. Myers Miracle (Twins)

Pitch - Present/Future Grades

Fastball - 40/40

Slider - 50/55

Curveball - 45/50

Changeup -50/55

Command - 45/50

Physical Description - Physical, XL frame that’s more athletic than bulky. Not too much projection left, room for about 10 lbs, but more of a lean body type. Square shoulders, a little stiff as an athlete, average bulk throughout. Resembles Jon Garland.

Fastball - Dipped as low as 84, topped out at 88 and sat in the 86-87 area. The 84-85 pitch was more of a true cutter that was effective, but usually higher in the zone. The 86-88 fastball had some natureal cut as well, but moreso because Robertson tends to throw across his body. He showed some average sink at times, and mixed in some two seamers with good run. This is just a pitch he uses to get to his off-speed stuff and he needs the movement and command to stay out of trouble, but today his command/mechanics faltered at times and his fastball got hammered at times.

Slider - Worked with this pitch at 74-76 mph and flashed above-average two-plane bite with late movement. More times than not, it was a lazier fringe-average cutter-type pitch with some depth that lacked the late bite and was either hit or out of the zone. If he cleans it up some, it probably still isn’t a swing-and-miss pitch, but a good weapon in conjunction with other pitches

Curveball - A 67-69 slow, overhand bender that has some tightness to it, but is average at best with the lack of bite. It’s more of a rolling pitch that he telegraphs somewhat with his higher arm angle. He also has a more awkward finish than usual when he throws it, hooking his arm to the body. For me, it’s no more than just a show-me pitch early in the count to change the eye-level.

Changeup - This was his go-to off-speed pitch for the night that ranged from 76-79 mph.  Robertson maintains his arm speed and angle to create some good deception and shows good late depth with some fade. He used it very often and still got some weird swings. He’s able to spot this pitch well and bury it as a chase pitch late in the count.  Robertson also mixed in a few splitters at 80-81 mph that he didn’t have quite as good feel for, but was similar in effectiveness when he spotted it.

Mechanics - There’s a lot of things I could say here, but judging from the outcry from the readers, you guys see that these are the type of mechanics that hinder an upside, turn scouts off, and apparently make a few of our readers hold their arms and cringe (their words, not mine). From a simplistic viewpoint, Robertson’s arm action is stiff, and is out in front of his body too much during the motion. Whether this impacts his command and/or lower velocity is out of the scope of my expertise, but there appears to be a connection.

Notes - If the fastball gets to 90, the command is working, and he develops his off-speed stuff, then this is an effective big league starter. But that’s more than a few ifs, and the thing about a stuff arm action and motion is that they aren’t conducive to adding velocity or honing command.

I’m not a huge fan, but if he can make the motion and command work for him and continue to develop, he could be a solid back-end starter.  I wouldn’t be surprised if his off-speed stuff and left-handedness gets him a cup of coffee in the big leagues, but anything beyond that depends on improvements to velocity and/or command.

See SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial for an explanation of the jargon and numbers.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 50
Present Group: P, Future Group: D
Projected Role: Long/Middle Reliever, Spot Starter
MLB ETA: 2011
Overall Comparison: Ron Villone

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post’s poll.

I’m leaving now to head to Orlando for the UCF-Clemson series, so I don’t have time to post the full Tyler Robertson scouting report right now.

I did manage to get the video on YouTube, and to tide you over until the report comes, here’s the Robertson video and here’s my preliminary thoughts on his outing.  Now it’s your turn to take the second look, at the video.  I’ll be weighing in shortly with the third look, my observations.

Notice the “funkiness” in the arm action, it’s a little stiff (arm fully extended) and he never really goes behind his body (parallel with chest) as much as you’d prefer. So, that’s what the scouts don’t like. Decide for yourself and I’ll give my take in a few hours.

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The past week I once again went to more Florida State League games than a human probably should and neglected posting because 1) in my spare time I was moving and 2) after putting off a day or two, a ton of info piled up.

Weak excuse, but now we’re about three weeks away from the MLB draft, the minor leagues are hitting their stride, and SaberScouting is about ready to bust at the seams with an information overload, in the form of possible (gasp) multiple articles a day.

Indeed, we’re getting off our lazy butts for the homestretch. Thanks for bearing with us.

In this Florida State League update, I’ll cover yet another Rick Porcello start, but try to show some restraint as we’ve already had him in a full scouting report, formal update to the report, the first chat, and in casual mentions in every other article we’ve written.

I kid, but we’re trying to wane ourselves from Porcello-mania by not even putting up another picture of him when we easily could have. That’s progress.

Also inside are reports on outings by Twins prospects RHP Deolis Guerra (full report here), LHP Tyler Robertson (pictured at right), Tigers sleeper RHP Luis Marte, and still more, all after the jump…

Rick Porcello, RHP, Lakeland (Detroit)

I saw Porcello pitch last Wednesday in Dunedin. His stuff was the weakest of the starts I’ve seen this season, but those kinds of days happen to every pitcher, and those days almost tells scouts more about the pitcher because it shows how the pitcher can battle without his best stuff.

As expected, Porcello was still pretty effective even with his stuff down a tick. He worked 89-91 with his now customary plus movement down and in to right-handed hitters. He actually went back to throwing his curveball a few times for this outing, but it wasn’t the same pitch he had in high school; it had a 3/4 tilt to it, but flashed plus with late bite. More times than not, it was average and Porcello lacked feel for it because 1) he hasn’t thrown it much at all this year and 2) his way of battling with lesser stuff tonight was throwing his fastball on almost every pitch, so he didn’t give himself much of a chance to gain that feel in this game.

The same goes for his changeup which I only saw once, but was easily above-average. As expected, without his best stuff, Porcello kept it simple and attacked, and while his command wasn’t stellar, he just needed to hit the right side of the plate with his sinker to be effective, and he did just that. I’m still convinced, even more after this bottom-of-the-barrel start stuff-wise, that Porcello could pitch effectively as a starter in the big leagues right now, but there is certainly more for him to gain by staying in the minors, and that is the right move for the Tigers and for Porcello.

I took some video of Porcello at this game, but it was grainy and this video I took at a prior start in Clearwater gives you a better idea of the type of pitcher Porcello is:

Deolis Guerra, RHP, Ft. Myers (Minnesota)

I saw Guerra earlier and wrote my preliminary thoughts and a full scouting report with my observations on a somewhat deflating outing from Guerra. The main problem, which I cover in more details in the linked articles, is that Guerra lacks any aggression in his motion (Carlos Gomez is fainting somewhere as he watches this video) and this is costing him significant velocity that he has shown in the past.

Why are the Twins having Guerra do this? All I can suggest is that it’s an effort to keep him more under control in his delivery, or his arm isn’t 100%, or some combination of both.

The bad news is that the first outing I saw from Guerra wasn’t an aberration, he was the same guy when I saw him last Sunday, just with a little more feel. Of course this doesn’t make much sense when he had decent numbers from the first outing and terrible numbers in the second outing, but that just shows you how numbers don’t always tell the story at this level.

Guerra sat at 86-87 and touched 90, but also dipped down to 84 with some two-seamers. His changeup showed improvement from the last time I saw him, flashing some plus ones at 77-79 mph with outstanding deception and late depth and good fade, thrown primarily to left-handed hitters. His true 12-to-6 curveball also showed flashes of plus when he threw it at the upper range of 68-72 mph.

Both of these off-speed pitches would be thrown with different arm speed and Guerra lacked feel—for every above-average pitch, there would be a few 40 pitches mixed in as well. Similarly, Guerra also showed flashes of average command of his repertoire, but would lose his feel just as quickly. So, there’s present skills with a ways to go before a promotion, but you feel better about that situation when the sky is the limit.

Tyler Robertson, LHP, Ft. Myers (Minnesota)

Last Monday, I got a look at somewhat controversial prospect (and John Sickels fave) Twins LHP prospect Tyler Robertson. The story on Robertson, in short-form, is that he’s a big, young, sturdy left-handed starter that has touched 93 with three solid pitches, good command, inconsistent velocity, and a funky arm action. He was all of those things today, and once YouTube stops getting moody with me, I’ll post some video for you.

I’ll also have a full report on him coming soon, but I was underwhelmed by Robertson today. He sat at 86-88 with average movement and spotty command. His secondary pitches were a fringy 67-69 mph slow curveball, a harder 74-76 mph bender with above-average potential, and a 76-80 mph changeup that also flashed above-average.

When the video gets up you’ll see that his arm action is funky and lacks reverse rotation. I’m not sure I’d call it stiff, as some have. It doesn’t cover the full range of motion you like to see, and until I’m able to get a better look at it (he was pulled the inning I was going to get a side view on the video), I’m not sure what the implications are.

Robertson certainly has some things going for him with his size and secondary pitches, and appears to have some feel (came and went in this outing). I talked to a source that has seen Robertson a few times and he confirmed the velocity has been in the mid to upper 80’s for awhile. As long as the velocity is down, the command will have to carry him and the upside is limited to a back-end major league starter, and there’s still a lot that has to go right for that to come true.

Luis Marte, RHP, Lakeland (Detroit)

Against Robertson was a much less-heralded pitcher who may be a better prospect, Tigers RHP Luis Marte. I have some good video on Marte that YouTube won’t let me post that will probably have to wait for the full report as well.

Marte worked at 90-91 with a pretty flat fastball from his smallish frame, but every now and then he would unleash a 93 mph heater with late life down in the zone that exploded out of his hand.

His out-pitch was an 80-84 mph two-plane slider that flashed above-average and Marte showed good command and confidence in the pitch, just as with his fastball.

There wasn’t a changeup to speak of and while Marte’s command and velocity lasted late in the game, his aggressive two-pitch approach from a smaller frame screams bullpen, and potential set-up man if all goes right.

More to come specifically on Marte and Robertson later with full reports and video, along with an unhealthy amount of draft coverage.

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Part three of my getting-caught-up recap will cover the rest of the amateur games I saw since the Kelly-Ferrara recap that weren’t covered in part two of this never-ending recap series.

Inside this report, I’ll have yet another Casey Kelly update (more here, here, and here). And for those of you sick of me talking about Casey Kelly, there’s other stuff in this post as well.

Inside this report we’ll also cover an intriguing, polished prep arm that may be Gainesville-bound, along with a second impression of emerging 2009 draft prep 3B Bobby Borchering (first here), a roundup of interesting prep prospects, potential first-rounders that could be headed to Sarasota, and more after the jump…

(Pictured right: Clearwater Central Catholic senior RHP Ryan Weber)

Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota HS

We’ll get started with senior and top 2008 draft prospect Casey Kelly and his Sarasota Sailors, who also surprisingly lost in the second round of the state playoffs to Lakeland HS (ongoing theme from part two of the recap series with Mychal Gives’ Plant HS being upset in round two). I saw Kelly’s first round game versus Gaither HS, checking in to see Kelly one more time before his season ended.

As mentioned repeatedly here, here, and here Kelly has all the makings of a face-of-the-franchise shortstop that, at 6′3, can already play a near big-league caliber shortstop and has a full ride to Tennessee to play QB.

He has reached the mid-90s on the mound and flashes a consistent plus breaking ball as a first-round caliber prospect on the mound. The only question that remains is how his bat plays. With talk of an out-of-the-box deal to a big market team at the end of the first round and strong rumors of him going as high at #7 to Cincinnati, it appears many teams are buying.

For me, I buy the plus defense, plus arm, above-average wheels and plus-plus makeup; it’s hard no to. I think a power projection could be anywhere from average to plus, closer to plus on the raw power side, because he’s got great bat speed, body torque, and some loft. For reference, plus/60 converts to 20-23 HR power and the ability to take the ball out to dead centerfield in a big league park, with a wood bat.

The real question is on the ability to make contact and I’m still undecided to a degree. I’ll post a full scouting report once I finish with the part three of the News & Notes columns with an FSL recap. To tide you over until then, I made a compilation of some pitching and hitting clips I have taken of Kelly into one video. Sorry, no defensive clips since I didn’t feel like recording the entire game, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

Ryan Weber, RHP, Clearwater Central Catholic

Weber is a senior and fringe 2009 draft prospect who, for me, is likely to go to Florida and pitch for the Gators.

He was dominating in this outing against Bishop Verot HS from Ft. Myers as his team also dominated in a 12-0 win in 5 innings (mercy rule) to move on. He worked from 88-91 with plus run and sink from an effortless motion. He also has a solid-average tight slider that is pretty maxed-out, and a changeup that doesn’t move any more than his fastball, which isn’t bad, but also isn’t more than just an average change of pace. His command is easily above-average, he knows how to pitch, and he had a great approach and feel to pitching.

That being said, he has three solid-average pitches and above-average to plus command, which is all very attractive, but not as much in a short high school righty.

A team may like him enough to pop him in the 3rd round this year, but given the lack of projection and out-pitch, he’s more of a 4th-5th round prospect that will have to prove himself at each level as he goes. I’ll bet a team won’t be willing to meet his price this year, but likely would three years from now with an SEC track record. I might be inclined to pay the price this year, but I’ll wait for a second look later in the playoffs.

In a related note, CCC is a powerhouse in the 3A classification with multiple D-1 prospects, and looking at the bracket, it appears that a clash between the two totally-loaded perennial powerhouses of the classification, Eric Hosmer’s American Heritage HS and Weber’s CCC squad is in order for the 3A state championship. Those two teams may combine for a dozen Division-1 prospects on one field.

Here’s a look at the video I took of Weber from CCC’s blowout win:

Notes

- The Florida state semifinals and finals for each of the 6 classifications will be in Sarasota at the Reds’ Ed Smith Stadium on May 14-20 (in driving distance) and there are still top prospects for the 2008 Draft that I haven’t been able to see due to distance, such as 1B Eric Hosmer, C Adrian Nieto, and LHP Brett DeVall.

- In the loss to CCC, Bishop Verot HS third baseman Bobby Borchering (pictured right) still impressed with his hit-ability. I saw him earlier in the Sarasota Classic (recap) where he hit 4 HR’s in 3 games and won hitter of the tournament. While he had more trouble than that with Ryan Weber’s stuff, he battled and showed he was able to handle high-level pitching as a junior.

Borchering is well-known for his hitting prowess on the showcase and travel team circuits and is a projectable 6′4 switch-hitting third baseman with serious power and a chance to stay at the hot corner. He’s still one of the top 5 juniors in the state for me and a potential top-two round pick in 2009. You’ll be seeing him on the 2009 Draft prospects list as well.

- Other solid prep prospects I saw this week included Middleton High SS/RHP Corey Thomas and Dunedin High’s SS/RHP Jacob Rogers and RHP Clay Kollenbaum.

Thomas is a very athletic shortstop with good defensive actions, some bat speed, and some wheels, but is a little rough around the edges. He also has been in the low 90s on the mound, but in Middleton’s last game of the year he was working at 86-89 with a below-average slurvy breaking ball. Thomas has signed with South Florida and it appears he’ll end up there.

Kollenbaum was the starter and pitched the first six innings for Dunedin against Givens’ Plant squad. He worked at 88-90 and touched 91 with a slurvy mid-70s three-quarter curveball that flashed average, and I didn’t see a changeup. His command was solid, and the 6′5, 210 righty’s deceptive two-part delivery will serve him well next year for Jacksonville U.

Rogers is a big 6′5 infielder who has signed with UCF for his hitting prowess, but he helped Dunedin to a big upset acting as it’s closer, working at 90-91 and showed feel for an 83 mph changeup that may make him a two-way player for the Knights.

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