We’re a little over a month past the 2008 draft and, if you think like we think, you can’t help but demand early rankings for the 2009 draft. You’re sick, but don’t worry, we’ve been talking to our scouting contacts, and we’re here for you.

I’ll be unveiling our top 30 high school players this week—the first five from that list will be unveiled in this article—and we’ll be using the same approach and style of content we had for the 2008 draft, but this time with a full year of momentum behind it.

We’ll soon follow with the balance of the high school list, a college list, in-person Cape Cod League updates from Frankie, and we will keep these lists updated continually, with links on the top of the site, and we’ll publish full update posts as soon as we get a hearty enough batch of updates to warrant a post.

As for the 2009 crop of high school talent, it is definitely early, but it appears to be a solid group. The top-end prep talent falls in between the extremes of the past two drafts: the relatively weak 2008 draft (9 first-rounders), following a superior crop of elite talents in 2007 (17 first-rounders, 11 of the top 18 picks).

The headliners of the 2009 class are a pair of power lefties: Texas-bred Matt Purke and southern California hurler Tyler Matzek. Another storyline is the extremely strong prep catching ranks, led by Florida prep talent Austin Maddox (pictured right), with six backstops in the Hot 30, and five in the top 20.

There’s also a tooled-up, dual-sport centerfielder with pro bloodlines in Georgia prep standout CF Donavan Tate, son of former-NFL running back Lars Tate, top football recruit, and owner of plus tools across the board.

In short (and you thought I couldn’t do that!), there’s a little bit for everyone, and I’ll include some graphics to spruce things up so long as no one says “market inefficiency” or “Moneyball” in the comments. Come on in and devour the obscenely early and irresponsible projections in a first look at the top 5 of the SaberScouting High School Hot 30, all after the jump…

Until I get some of my videos up of a few of these top guys from the Hot 30, these players are largely mysteries to you, the reader, despite all the information we’re reporting. Well, don’t worry, all of these top 5 players, and over half of our top 30 will be at the AFLAC All-American game on August 9th, at 3 PM Eastern on Fox Sports Net. Click here to see the full rosters and learn more about the event.

A note about the rankings: at this point, the top four players are all tightly packed and you could really put them in any order. Not to say Jacob Turner is chopped liver, but the top four players have separated themselves from the pack thus far.

This top 30 is populated mostly of players that are showcase regulars, as they are the ones that have been seen most often. So, when the full list comes out, you’ll see lots of California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas players, and almost no one that hasn’t been to some kind of showcase this summer; that’s just the way it is with scouts focusing almost exclusively on seniors this past spring.

Some players that go high in the draft (like 34th overall pick in the ‘08 draft, Zach Collier) don’t go to showcases at all and the only time it hurts them is in very early rankings such as these. Early apologies to such players.

Matzek was relatively little known entering showcase season, but has been at every major event and has been the biggest riser, as most of our top 10-15 were known elite players before their showcase performances.

Baseball America’s Dave Perkin compared Matzek (subscriber only) to the Royals sandwich pick (36th overall) in the recent 2008 draft, Mike Montgomery, and Perkin is certainly onto something there, with a lot of similarities between these two projectable, three-pitch, southern California lefties. That being said, Matzek is this high on the list (and at the top of some insider’s lists) because he has a notch better stuff, with three pitches that project for above-average, without lacking command or projectability.

Matzek works at 89-92, touching 94 with a heavy fastball and mixing in a knockout mid-70s curveball. His curveball is a two-plane bender that is regularly above-average now with a chance to be a plus pitch. He also mixes in solid slider and shows feel for a changeup that flashes above-average.

He’s projectable and athletic with a clean arm and simple delivery, throwing from a classic high 3/4 arm angle. That allows Matzek to work both sides of the plate effectively, pounding the zone with advanced feel. He’s got four pitches and command that project for average or better; there’s just a lot to like. One insider said Matzek reminded him of another lefty: the 4th overall pick of the 2008 draft, former U. San Diego hurler and Orioles draftee, Brian Matusz.

One scout that saw Matzek at the Perfect Game National showcase in Minneapolis said, “if his breaking ball develops like you hope, he could be Clayton Kershaw.” That might sound a bit optimistic, and that I’m using too many comparisons, but considering how under-the-radar Kershaw was entering his senior year, it doesn’t seem so far-fetched (Matzek photo: Perfect Game)

I’ve talked about Maddox a few times on the site, both in the 2009 draft preview on the podcast (near the end) and in a review of the Sarasota Classic. I’ve been able to see Maddox a handful of times during his junior season, including seeing his team win the state championship in Sarasota, and he brings his full toolbox to the yard every time out. I also have some video I’ll post soon.

Maddox’s stance (check the above picture for an idea) and swing are reminiscent of Mark McGwire due to his powerful, leveraged, yet compact right-handed stroke with serious bat speed. Maddox just squares balls up, hitting over .500 this year against top competition, and has flashed his plus-plus raw power in every game I’ve seen him play. The scouting community, who largely ignore juniors during the regular season, saw this power when Maddox hit multiple homers over 400 feet with wood bats in recent national showcases.

That being said, Maddox is the top position player on this list because of his defensive tools. He consistently uses his plus-plus howitzer to register pop times under 1.85 and has been under 1.80, while hitting 95 on the mound. He also has what I, and a few scouts I’ve talked to, feel is already big league average receiving and blocking skills. Maddox is also a hard worker that gets high marks for his makeup; he’s committed to Florida.

The only real question with Maddox is if his already extra-large frame will be able to stay agile enough to remain behind the plate. Some may knock his team’s schedule, as they are in the smallest classification (1A) in the state and play some cream puff teams, but intentionally schedule almost every other game against top competition, and Maddox is a showcase veteran that can hit with wood. A scout familiar with Maddox sums it up: “We have him as a top follow and I see a Mike Piazza package, except with a cannon behind the plate.”

As you might expect from a top player on this list, Purke has all the classic things you look for in a pitching prospect. He’s the next in a seemingly never-ending line of physical, aggressive power arms from the Lonestar State, hitting 94 in a recent showcase.

Working with a clean arm and near effortless delivery from a 3/4 arm angle, Purke pounds the zone with three solid pitches, good command, and an aggressive approach. He owns a present solid-average fastball that sits at 90-92 with some late life, but has hit 94 and projects to add a few ticks as his slim frame bulks up. Purke throws a two-plane slider with good tilt and late bite to gets funny swings from high school hitters now, and projects as an out-pitch. He also mixes in a solid changeup, though only sparingly as he relies heavily on his fastball/slider combination.

As for the downside, like many young power pitchers, he can lose his mechanics at times, and like many frequent showcase attendees, his velocity, breaking ball, and feel can vary from appearance to appearancde due to fatigue; but that’s about all.

Those aren’t huge concerns, and clearly doesn’t effect scouts perception of him: “He’s a projectable, velocity left-hander with a hard slider and just blows hitters away at these showcases. I’m a big fan.”

It’s easy to slap a Scott Kazmir comparison on him, given the similarities (skinny Texas prep lefty with a power fastball-slider combo), but Kazmir was a dominating showcase legend that Purke hasn’t yet proven to be, though he has shown flashes and is the class of this year’s pitching crop along with Matzek. (Purke photo: Perfect Game)

If you’re reading about the draft this early, you like tools, and if you want a suggestion for a new James Bond villain, let me suggest Donavan Tate as Tools Galore. He compares favorably to the 14th overall pick in the 2008 draft, the Twins’ Aaron Hicks, as a centerfielder, both for his pros and cons.

Tate is the son of former NFL running back Lars Tate and is a top football recruit, with Rivals.com ranking him as the 86th best recruit in the nation. To get an idea of his athleticism, Rivals lists Tate as an “athlete” for football purposes (no set projected college position, generally the most athletic guys on the field) and among the “athletes,” (again, the most athletic football players in the country), Tate was named the most athletic.

Tate uses his plus-plus arm (hit 95 from the outfield—that’s with no mound involved) and true 80 speed (6.3 to 6.4 in the 60-yard) to quarterback his high school team, and uses his 6′3, 200 frame to deliver big hits as a safety. Michigan and Georgia want him as a QB, while USC and Florida like him as a safety. So, he’s got a little bit of talent.

As far as baseball-specific skills, his speed and arm obviously play in center where he’s a developing defender that should be plus or more as a center fielder in time. Tate shows plus raw power and squares pitches up consistently when he makes contact.

The problem, as with the aforementioned Hicks, is if he will make enough contact, as Tate has rough plate discipline. In showcases, Tate produces, but not without some cause for concern.  To put some numbers behind this general scouting consensus, BA’s Matt Blood reports that Tate slugged two HRs, a triple, and two doubles in 19 at-bats at the Tournament of Stars, but struck out six times with only one walk. Blood adds that one day, Tate made contact on seven of ten swings, while the next day he whiffed on six of seven swings.

That performance makes for an impressive line of .316/.350/.842, considering Tate is a high school junior using wood bats against top pitching; but almost any toolshed first-round bust has put up that kind of performance, so what did we really learn? Tate’s hitability will be a situation to monitor throughout the spring, but it will be something you can only learn about after talking to multiple scouts or after multiple viewings, and even then it will likely be heavily debated within each organization. Let the debate begin. (Tate photo: Rivals.com)

Turner has been on the radar screen for some time as a top arm for the 2009 draft, as a proven showcase veteran, and he did nothing to change that standing in the recent national showcases.

Owner of a prototypical power right-hander’s frame, Turner attacks hitters with three solid pitches, including a 90-94 mph fastball with solid sink. Turner’s velocity comes from a high 3/4 arm angle, and sneaks up on hitters due to a compact delivery and easy arm action.

Turner follows his above-average fastball with an above-average overhand curveball that can get slurvy with two-plane break. He also mixes in a solid changeup that shows some potential along with an aggressive approach to pitching, and solid command, made possible by Turner’s easy delivery.

There are a fair amount of scouts on the Jacob Turner bandwagon, as his lower-risk profile and outstanding showcase performances have some putting him ahead of Purke and even Matzek.

There’s also definite symmetry between Turner and the 2008 draft’s top Missouri prep arm, Tim Melville. Both are big-framed right-handers with three quality pitches, good feel, and a chance to be above-average to plus across the board. Melville is a little more projectable and athletic, but they have similar stuff, command, and lengthy showcase track records (Tuner photo: Perfect Game).

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We also had a little trouble fitting everything we said in the over hour long conversation into a 30 minute podcast, so some banter and a few questions got cut, but the best stuff is still around. We also realize the audio quality isn’t fantastic, we’re working to figure out a way to avoid compressing the file so much.

Let us know what you think about our first try at podcasting in the comments. Also, if you’re still desperate for draft answers, hit us in the comments or at mailbag@saberscouting.com for out take.

We opened up with Lupe Fiasco’s “Superstar,” for obvious and somewhat corny reasons: teams are drafting and we’re answering questions so we can find the next superstar. Some think it could be Yankees first rounder Gerrit Cole (pictured), and you can hear our thoughts from the embedded player below, and can check out some technical info after the jump…

(Gerrit Cole photo: Heston Quan)

So, the above is the player to listen to the podcast here on the page. If you’re a podcast listening junkie like me (Kiley, by the way), then you can add search for us on iTunes or add this feed to your podcast program (http://saberscouting.com/feed).

I think that covers most of the technical questions you guys might have about how to listen to this. If you have anymore, hit us up in the comments or just google your question, since we’re not experts either.

Podcast Download Link

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It’s been a while since we talked about PTO%. Isn’t it ironic that the first article I am doing after a long stretch of a busy scouting schedule is statistical in nature?

For those unfamiliar, it is a tool we developed that we believe is a measure of dominance or “ace hood.” Also, we’ve taken the same principles and applied them to hitters. As far as I can tell, it will not serve as an all encompassing statistic for hitters like it seems to be for pitcher.

By simply measuring the percentage of pitches that go towards outs and strikeouts (lower being better for hitters) we can’t know how effective his power is or other aspects of that nature. What I can tell us, however, is how “tough” an out the hitter is.

Just as with a pitcher who has a very low PTO% is someone who is laboring to get his outs, a hitter with a low PTO% is someone who is making a pitcher labor. Makes, sense right?

Now, let’s take a look at 2008’s most dominant pitchers (John Lackey, right, is leading the way among starters) and toughest outs in the league at the midway point of the season, all after the jump…

(John Lackey photo: Steve Nesius/AP)

Pitching stats are as of July 7th, hitting stats as of July 1st.

Top Starters
John Lackey - 33.7%
Roy Halladay - 32.7%
Rich Harden - 32.6%
Josh Beckett - 32.1%
Shawn Marcum - 32.0%
Cole Hamels - 31.8%
James Shields - 31.7%
C.C. Sabathia - 31.6%
Brandon Webb - 31.4%
Tim Lincecum - 31.4%
Felix Hernandez - 31.2%
Johan Santana - 30.9%
Dan Haren - 30.8%
Cliff Lee - 30.7%
Ben Sheets - 30.5%
Ervin Santana - 30.4%
Chad Billingsley - 30.3%
Andrew Miller - 30.2%
Javier Vazquez - 30.1%
Jake Peavy - 30.1%
Edinson Volquez - 30.1%

Top Relievers
Mariano Rivera - 37.8%
Taylor Buchholz - 36.1%
Jonathan Papelbon - 36.0%
Kerry Wood - 35.9%
Hong-Chi Kuo - 34.1%
Joe Nathan - 33.9%
Carlos Marmol - 33.7%
Chad Qualls - 33.7%
Joakim Soria - 33.3%
Huston Street - 31.8%

Toughest Outs
Joe Mauer - 17.3%
Albert Pujols - 17.9%
Luis Castillo - 18.0%
Ryan Spilborghs - 18.6%
David Eckstein - 19.1%
Jeff Keppinger - 19.5%
Todd Helton - 20.0%
Russell Martin - 20.1%
Juan Pierre - 20.1%
Chipper Jones - 20.2%
Ramon Vazquez - 20.6%
Kosuke Fukudome - 20.7%
David DeJesus - 20.8%
Mark Ellis - 20.9%
Johnny Damon - 20.9%
Brian Giles - 20.9%
Dustin Pedroia - 21.0%
Ryan Theriot - 21.0%
Conor Jackson - 21.2%
Jason Kendall - 21.3%

Might this be the method we’ve been looking for to quantify “gritty hitters” or guys that “grind out at-bats”? I think it may be.

Just to review, this percentage is the percentage of pitches out of the total number of pitches seen that go towards outs. So, a player who strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk much will do poorly.

The ideal player is one who works the count, walks a lot, doesn’t strike out, fouls pitches off. This works in the opposite fashion that it does for the pitchers.

I’m being bold again, but I love where this stat could take us in terms of quantifying ambiguous terms like “gritty” or “tough out” or “ace”. I’d like to hear your thoughts.

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Today, we’re going to take a break from the draft and July 2nd signings and jump back into the prospect world with a scouting report of arguably the hottest young hitter in baseball, Rangers slugger Chris Davis.

In a great piece of timing, Davis hit a homerun last night in Yankee Stadium, to go along with a 3 homers and a 1.223 OPS in his first 19 big league at-bats.

This comes on the heels of Davis terrorizing AA this year to a tune of .333/.376/.618 and AAA at a clip of .291/.361/.527.

This success for the 22 year old first baseman is all the more surprising because Davis came from relative obscurity; drafted in the 50th round in 2004 by the Yankees, 35th round in 2005 by the Angels, and finally signing from a Texas JuCo as a 5th round pick of the Rangers in the 2006 draft.

In another break from the ordinary, we’re introducing a new guest writer to the fold for this breakdown, Lincoln Hamilton.

Lincoln is based in Texas and was able to catch Davis in action when he was at AA earlier in the season. Be sure to say hello to him in the comments and let him know what you think about the article.

Catch the full Chris Davis swing breakdown after the jump…

(Chris Davis photo: Charlie Riedel/AP)

I have four videos of Davis from batting practice:

Chris Davis has gone from relatively anonymous minor leaguer to one of the game’s most heralded prospects in short order. The Rangers’ hulking slugger has mashed all year and as a result has earned himself a trip to Arlington where he is now the team’s starting 1^st baseman until Hank Blalock is healthy - or in other words, for the foreseeable future.

Davis was drafted by the Yankees in the 50^th round of the 2004 draft but did not sign and elected to attend the University of Texas. However, before playing a game for the Longhorns, Davis left UT and went to star at one of the nation’s top JUCO programs, Navarro JC. After a productive season Davis was again selected, this time, by the Angles in the 35^th round. The two sides were unable to come to a contract agreement and in 2006 Davis was chosen for the third time in three years, in the 5^th round by Texas.

Physical Description: The left-handed Davis is listed at 6’4”, 235 pounds and is every bit of it. He’s built more like a NFL tight end than a baseball player – well proportioned musculature, large upper body, big arms. Put simply, Chris Davis is a big, strong kid.

Setup: Davis stands tall in the batter’s box with very slightly bent knees. His stance is rather short, with his legs not much more than shoulder width apart. He holds the bat even with his left ear at shoulder height.

As the pitcher goes into his windup, Davis drops his hands considerably to mid-torso level. Occasionally Davis will also move his hands away from his body in a sort of pendulum timing mechanism that adds length and loft to his swing which, in turn, leads to swings and misses.

Plate Discipline: This is an area of Davis’ game that needs to, and can, improve. Due to Davis’ production, he has yet to tally more than 400 at-bats in a single minor league stop. He has walked 7.8% of the time in 332 plate appearances (AA and AAA combined) in the 2008 minor league season, which is below average for a power-hitting first baseman. Davis, however, does have solid pitch recognition; his excellent bat-speed and short swing path allow him to let the ball travel deep in the zone. There are signs that he is becoming more discriminating at the plate, his walk percentage is up to 10.9% during a relatively short stint at Triple-A (128 PA).

Make no mistake about it; Chris Davis goes up to the plate looking to hit the ball a long way.

Head Movement: His head very still, only moving downward slightly to focus on the ball as it approaches home plate and forward a tiny bit as his weight shifts.

Lower Half/Stride: The first thing that really stood out to me when watching Davis bat was his hips. He generates remarkable rotational velocity with his hips which, more so than his strong upper body, is where his power comes from. A lot of guys are strong but don’t have much power, and some guys have good power but aren’t that strong. Chris Davis is both strong and powerful.

He takes a relatively small stride, which helps him maintain good balance and proper tempo during his weight shift, and opens his front side slightly. There is a slight tendency for Davis to open up too much on his front side. He, occasionally, rotates his front foot almost 90 degrees and steps closer to first base which leads to his bat being in the zone less and an inability to cover the outside corner.

Swing Path: When all goes well Davis has a short, quick stroke that generates lots of loft and leads to long fly balls – many of which land past fences that are set up before the game. During his load Davis raises the bat until it is almost perpendicular to the ground; he then drops the barrel of the bat in a hurry and manages to get good extension on everything that’s not right in on his hands. When his hands move a little too much or he gets a little too eager and opens up his front side too much, Davis is prone to swinging and missing. Overall, there is a lot to like as his problems are correctable with good coaching and practice.

Statistics: Perhaps the best thing about Davis’ production in the minors is that he continues to improve with each stop.

Chris Davis is arguably the minor’s most productive player to date. While his Double-A stint this year was buoyed by an unsustainably high average on balls in play, his AAA numbers are just as good as they look on the surface – any boost he gets from playing in a hitters park, in a hitters league is just about counterbalanced by the fact that Davis is just 22 years old and putting up those numbers as one of the younger players at the level.

His Isolated Power (IsoP) points to extreme power potential and his 2008 line drive rates are off-the-charts good. More proof that he hits the ball really hard and far.

Unfortunately Davis’ statistical record isn’t all triple-crown glory and BIP data excellence. Davis has struck out in more than 21% of his plate appearances in each and every minor league stop, so far. His inability to make contact at lower levels of competition, lead one to wonder about his ability to do so at the highest level. Strikeout percentages of 21-24% do not destine a player to languish in Quadruple-A obscurity, but they do limit the upside of any player.

Summary: Good things happen when Chris Davis hits a baseball. Davis carries himself with the poise of a veteran player. He has a confidence and focus about his game that doesn’t seem to wane. Unfortunately, his relatively low walk rates and high strikeout rates added with the fact that he offers very little benefit in terms of defense or base running limit him from being in the truly elite level of players. The power is real, and you could see Davis posting 35 to 40+ home runs seasons and giving opposing pitchers reason to pause when thinking about pitching around Josh Hamilton.

Scouting Grades
Batting: 45/55
Power: 60/70
Arm: 55/55
Defense: 45/50
Running: 40/40

MLB Projection
Batting Order Projection: #4 or #5 hitter
Statistical Projection: .280/.340/.550

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There has been intrigue, rumors, and large amounts of money flying around with the opening of the signing period for nearly all of the top 16 year olds in Latin America beginning this morning.

Some scouts and agents started posting in the comments of the scouting reports article and 100 comments later, it turned into a liveblog of sorts of international rumors and facts. It’s still a comments section, so take it with a grain of salt, but there’s some good stuff in there.

ESPN Deportes broke the story that both the Rangers and Reds offered $5 million to Michel Inoa, but he stuck with the A’s offer of $4.25 million because of his comfort with their organization and confidence in their pitcher development system.

The Reds offered a $5 million big league deal and the Rangers went to $5.2 million in a standard minor league deal.

I had heard a few other teams involved on the high end of the Inoa sweepstakes, but the Reds and Rangers had the most buzz all along and now it’s clear why. This is proof that these teams are serious about Latin America, and also underlines a common July 2nd occurrence that I’ll touch on after the jump.

Read on for much more on these developments, and an early list of July 2nd signings after the jump…

EDIT: I’ve added some updated signings and bonus information.

(Michel Inoa photo credit: Victor Perez/ESPNDeportes.com)

Some notes on done deals, or at least the ones that have leaked out so far, beyond Inoa’s $4.25 million to Oakland:

ESPN Deportes tags a few signings on the end of the Inoa story:

- LHP Carlos Perez to Atlanta for $600,000
- SS Anderson Felix to the Yankees for $500,000
- RHP Pedro Martinez to San Diego for $150,000
- SS Jimmy De Los Santos to Atlanta for $100,000

Mentioned in the comments and later confirmed:

- 3B Gustavo Pierre to Toronto
- SS Jose Osoria to Cleveland for $575,000

Padres.com has a press release on the elite talent San Diego has locked up:

- RHP Adis Portillo, $2.2 million
- SS Alvaro Aristy
- RF Luis Domoromo, $1.2 million
- RHP Elvin Tavarez
- UT Corey Adamson

The Padres aren’t messing around, with a spanking new $8.5 million academy in the Dominican and getting some top talent on the first day of the open period. You can check the release for info on the players, like Adamson, who is from Australia and I have little information on.

Aristy, Domoromo, and Portillo were long rumored to be headed to the Padres and are covered in the international scouting reports article. Tavarez, and many of these other players, have bios in Enrique Rojas’ international preview for ESPN Deportes.

Hat tip to commenter Paul, who led me to the link and mentioned some numbers that have been rumored for the last few weeks, and I was able to confirm Portillo’s and Domoromo’s bonuses, while Aristy is strongly rumored to have signed for $1 million and Adamson is said to have been paid in the $500,000 range, but I wasn’t able to get a solid number for Tavarez.

Padres exec Paul DePodesta has his own thoughts on the Padres July 2nd signees at his blog.

The Yankees have also made their signees official:

- INF Giancarlo Arias
- C/3B Jackson Valera
- OF Ramon Flores
- SS Anderson Felix
- RF Yeico Calderon

As mentioned above, Felix was for $500,000, and all of these players were fringe seven figure talents that the Yankees locked up early in the process. While the bonuses aren’t clear yet for all of these players, it appears all five were for below-market, value-type deals between $500,000 and $900,000.

Calderon, Flores, and Arias have reports in the scouting reports article, but, in short, all are excellent hitters with corner player type skills, though Arias may stick at second base. Felix is a hitability shortstop with gap-to-gap power likely moving to second base, and Valera keeps with the theme as a very good bat with plus power but no clear position.

The Yankees focused on guys with high-probability bats that they were able to get at below-market prices, all in an exploding market. This is a dynamic I’ll touch in the next article as the teams that were ahead of the curve and spending a lot of money in Latin America for many years are now trying to find ways to get solid values in a crowded market.

The big market, established teams are the ones with the infrastructure in place to pull off something like the Yankees did; the experienced scouts, relationships, reputation, know-how, etc. Notice how none of the traditional Latin powers are on these big, seven-figure talents, that it’s all relatively new teams trying to make a name for themselves. I’m sure the Mariners, Braves, Red Sox, and Mets list of signees will look pretty similar to that Yankees list.

The Rangers would be considered by some to be a traditional power (others would say it’s the group listed aboce), but it’s not uncommon for players to take less money on July 2nd from a scout/team they are comfortable with, that have a track record with the player, reputation, and tradition. Every year, a team wanting to make a splash makes a late play for top players and gets rebuffed, it just doesn’t always make the papers. While sometimes the player/agent take the money, taking less money is more common than many fans may assume. This open market doesn’t necessarily work like the MLB free agent market, and that’s part of the intrigue.

In the same vein, some good players never get seen by these other teams and some big market teams will get a player for $100,000 that they would’ve paid up to $500,000 for. Obviously, that becomes less and less common by the day. The days seem to be over where teams get a discount because a player grew up wanting to play for them; the scout that knew them when they were 12 is the new best way to get a player for a good value, hence the rush by many teams in the last few years to get the infrastructure of the big market teams in place.

The Braves made two signings in Taiwan, hat tip to reader George L.:

- RHP Wei-Chen Huang for $125,000.
- C Meng-Hsiu Tsai for $100,000

Reported by the Taiwan Baseball Blog, Huang is an 18 year old righty at 6′0, 185 lbs with a fastball that tops out at 90, with a curve and change. Here are some pictures on his agent’s web site of his press conference

Also from the Taiwan Baseball Blog, Tsai is a 5′11, 190 pound that shows an above-average arm and reportedly had interest from the Red Sox, Twins, and Mariners, as well.

While I finish up the next article about the Latin market and bonuses, along with gathering more confirmed signings, take a look at the notes article I wrote to introduce the July 2nd signing period with some numbers and a general feel for the process.

We also have a number of Latin sources posting confirmed numbers in the comments for this article and the ones before it.  I can’t confirm all of these, but the commenters haven’t been proven wrong yet, so if you’re looking for news on your team, take a look.

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SaberScouting has learned from MLB sources that Dominican right-handed pitching phenom Michel Inoa has agreed to a $4.25 million bonus with the Oakland A’s. The A’s have called a press conference to announce the signing of their new prize.

As covered in this scouting report, Inoa has proven himself to be a rare pitching talent and, as his talent would indicate, has the top bonus in Latin history to prove it, shattering the previous record of $2.44 million to Wily Mo Pena.

Inoa is a 6′7, 205 lb pitcher with a low 90’s fastball that reaches 95, along with good feel for a curveball and changeup with a projectable body and feel that is beyond his years, despite lacking top-level coaching and being only 16 years old.

He also comes from an athletic family, with a father that played in the minor leagues, and a mother that was a standout softball player.

Nearly every club with an international presence was interested in Inoa at the start. The bidding began in the low $2 million range and slowly rose throughout the spring and into the summer, with a small group of teams still interested with Inoa’s asking price well over $3 million.

The A’s stepped up and pushed the bidding past the $4 million barrier that no other team was willing to cross, and that proved to be enough to close the deal.

Stay tuned to SaberScouting for news on other July 2nd signings as they break.

(Michel Inoa photo credit: Victor Perez/ESPNDeportes.com)

Something you can look for as an ongoing theme for these scouting reports is that I’ll mention a prospect that’s mostly projection, that would get $500,000 to $750,000 in most years, but this year will get that price pushed up by $250,000 to $500,000, due to demand. The supply is good this year, with a strong crop of talent, but the demand, especially at the top of the talent scale, is higher.

I suppose at some point, when every top player has their perceived value boosted that much, the effect may not be teams overpaying, but that we’re just seeing the new market.

That would be the market correction that competition brings to offset the bargains that the old July 2nd market had; the bargains that enticed all the teams to open up shop in Latin America in the first place.

For an economic look at this phenomenon, check this article, and stay tuned for another article about it here in the next few days.

As mentioned in the opening for the Michel Inoa report, the competition for second best July 2nd prospect is between power-hitting right fielder Rafael Rodriguez and dynamic five-tool center fielder Yorman Rodriguez, who has drawn Carlos Beltran comparisons. Most (including myself) prefer Yorman Rodriguez, and in lieu of a picture of him, we’ll run a Beltran picture.

Read on for a breakdown of the rest of the top 15 Latin American prospects, along with one sleeper, and subtitles that are the color of money, all after the jump…

The traditional powers, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Mets, and Braves, seem to be in on all the big talents, while new major players I referenced in the last article include teams like the Padres, Royals, A’s, Reds, and Giants. There’s obviously still some teams just below the “major player” level that are doing good things and may make a splashy signing or two, but the focus in this article is on the top guys and major players.

So, Who Else Is Getting Paid?

2. Yorman Rodriguez, CF, Venezuela
Yorman Rodriguez has been touted as the top position player in this class for some time. His selling point is a rare combination plus-plus speed and plus-plus raw power. He’s a five-tool talent with an outstanding frame, athleticism, and defensive tools, but like most July 2nd hitting prospects, he gets a wide range of reviews on his ability to hit.

The common refrain on a raw bat are heard with Rodriguez: lunges at the ball, trouble identifying breaking pitches, trouble with high level stuff, questionable approach, and 5 o’clock power (batting practice only). Some players grow out of it, some never adjust, so the team that gets Rodriguez believes in his ability to make adjustments.

He has all the elements of a star centerfielder. He’s been compared to Miguel Cabrera for his powerful bat and Venezuelan bloodlines, but more athletic comparisons like Cesar Cedeno, Eric Davis, or a right-handed hitting Carlos Beltran seem more apt. That being said, Rodriguez, or any of the hitters below him, could go to the GCL and hit .180 for three seasons and make everyone look stupid, but those kind of comparisons let you know why teams will pay him and that the tools are for real.

There are rumors that since his agent has stopped shopping him around that a deal has been struck and the Reds are rumored to be that team—another team new to being a major player on the international scene, spending $2.0 million in March on 16 year old power-hitting OF Juan Duran, and have already spent $3-4 million this season on pre July 2nd prospects. The Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox, and Cardinals are all heavily interested and Rodriguez figures to get a bonus between $2.5 million and $3.0 million, which would top Miguel Cabrera’s $1.9 million bonus in 1999 as the highest in Venezuelan history.

3. Rafael Rodriguez, RF, Dominican Republic
The rumor that won’t die about Rodriguez is that the Giants have offered him a $2.5 million bonus and he’s stopped shopping himself with a deal already done. It does seem like $2.5 million is a little rich for Rodriguez versus industry perception (about $1.5 million), but there is a lot of competition for players at the top and if the Giants like him, giving a game-ending offer weeks before the deadline to lock him up is a sound strategy. He’ll be eligible to sign when he turns 16 on July 13th.

As for the tools, Rodriguez has a projectable 6′5, 200 lb frame that one international scouting director compared to Dave Winfield in BA’s breakdown of Rodriguez. His right-handed bat draws praise for it’s power to all fields and his raw strength but there are serious questions about hitability, approach, balance, loop in the swing, and ability to hit off-speed stuff. None of those things are abnormal for a 16 year old, but all of them in a package that will cost seven figures causes many to pause.

The bat speed, loft, big power, and athleticism are all there, so if you buy his makeup and ability to adjust, there’s a ton of raw ability to work with; it’s easy to see why the Giants would like him. It does sound like more teams than not think there’s a lot of Joel Guzman in there, too; none of the other stuff matters if he can’t hit, and that’s a legitimate question at this point.

4. Adis Portillo, RHP, Venezuela
Portillo is the consensus second-best pitcher in this year’s crop, and as mentioned in the July 2nd Notes article he is getting bid up due to the “didn’t get Inoa” effect. His profile is along the lines of most high-profile July 2nd pitchers: projectable body (6′3 with room for a lot of bulk), average now velocity (88-92), a feel for a curveball and changeup, a loose arm, and a workable delivery (though it has some effort). Like many other Latin prospects, scouts are sold on his frame due to big feet, hands, and fingers; a good indicator that a frame that will grow.

The downside was alluded to in the upside: he’s not polished and no one is really sure what his next 2-3 years of development will look like. Everything except his average velocity and projectable frame is below-average right now, including his control, which worries more than a few scouts. There also is an issue common with pitchers of Portillo’s profile: a disconnect between bullpen performance and game performance, similar to how young hitters having trouble converting BP power into games.

The team that likes Portillo the most will be banking (as usual) on his makeup and ability to improve as lots is needed before the upper levels of pro baseball. All those negatives said, Portillo is still an easy $500,000 prospect, and many would pay up to about $800,000, with a few likely willing to go to seven figures. The aforementioned affect could push Portillo as high as $2.0 million, the indicated asking price by some sources. The number that sounds more likely is $1.5 million, with teams like the Cubs, Mariners, Royals, Phillies, and Padres all in the mix, with San Diego the rumored landing spot—another new power on the Latin front.

5. Julio Morban, CF, Dominican Republic
Morban is more of a baseball player-type prospect than the above hitters, that are more star potential athletes. Morban swings a consistent bat from the left side and has above-average speed and solid athletic actions in center field packed into a compact 5′11, 178 pound frame.

Despite not owning a big, projectable frame, Morban has a bat that almost every Latin insider can buy, along with athleticism that brought projections of a million dollar bonus before the market jumped a few notches. Morban’s swing has some issues to be ironed out like any 16 year old’s swing would, but with advanced hitability, a sound approach, solid mechanics, and enough bat speed to create some power, he may own the safest bat in this class. He also sports an above-average arm and glove in center, and while some think he may add power and eventually move to right field, the profile is that of an everyday player either way.

The Mariners, Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees have been tied to Morban. Baseball America has a profile and a projection that jives with what I’ve heard: $1.1 to $1.2 million from the Mariners.

6. Luis Domoromo, OF, Venezuela
As mentioned above with Morban, Domoromo is a change of pace from the Rodriguez’s, as more of a baseball player, with a bat teams believe in to varying degrees, but projects for more of a solid-average everyday profile and will likely end up at a corner outfield position.

Some scouts say he’s a little mechanical and others think he has more of an average bat from the right side, but in comparison to the other bats on this list, being a little stiff and having a low-end projection of an average major league bat is a welcome relief for the risk averse. Domoromo has a solid frame that projects for plus power, and as you might expect, he is more of pull-oriented hitter that doesn’t always convert BP power into game situations. He has a smooth, fluid swing and emerging power, but won’t get big money due to the lack his lack of elite athleticism or star potential. He’s fine in the outfield given the profile and his arm seems good enough for right field to be a longterm fit.

Domoromo was described to me a few weeks ago as a low-upside player who would get about $700,000, and as you might expect, he’s heavily rumored, including in his BA profile, to sign for seven figures. BA suggests a deal is done with the Padres for $1.2 million, and that’s more conviction than I have about any of the rumors I’ve heard about Domoromo, so I’ll go with that.

The Borderline Millionaires

7. Yeico Calderon, RF, Dominican Republic
The Skinny: This is the first spot where a million dollar pay day isn’t assured, where rankings will diverge, and where information is both harder to come by, and harder to trust as smokescreens and misinformation are common at this juncture in the process.

Calderon is a power prospect with a potent bat from the left side and right field tools that have drawn Cliff Floyd comparisons. One source even said his tools are on par with Rafael Rodriguez, but with a bat from the left side, and with better hitability. Calderon can turn on good fastballs in game situations, but is a bit rough around the edges with a rudimentary approach and power primarily to his pull side. He is athletic enough to play right field and has a strong arm that may get him a seven figure pay day from the right team.

The Yankees are known to have interest, but from this point on, you probably won’t see a correct bonus/team prediction, and you could put any of the big Latin spending teams on any of the listed players and probably be right.

8. Alvaro Aristy, SS, Dominican Republic
Latin shortstops are a successful group as a whole, and sought-after commodity every July 2nd. The top one looks this year looks to be a 6′0, 165 pound, defense-first prospect in Alvaro Aristy.

Aristy has the best chance to play shortstop in the bigs from this class, with sure hand and plus range, but scouts aren’t sure if his bat is enough to get him to the big leagues. With a thin build and lack of power, Aristy’s bat doesn’t stand out, but he’s elicited comparisons to Brewers SS Alcides Escobar, and may follow the same career path, with steady, incremental improvement at the plate. One insider likes his bat speed and projection and thinks he could be grow into his frame and become “Alfonso Soriano light.”

For the moment, he’s not a whole lot to get excited about, but neither was Escobar when I saw him in the Florida State League last year, and now he’s almost a big leaguer. That just might be enough to justify the $1 million price tag that’s he’s rumored to be getting, with a number of teams on him and San Diego, yet again, being the rumored front runner.

9. Giancarlo Arias, IF, Dominican Republic
Aristy, Arias, and the next prospect, Jose Osoria, have been lumped together as similar prospects that currently play shortstop and should get comparable bonuses, but Arias is a different sort of player than Aristy and Osoria.

Arias is a stocky six footer with a plus arm and impressive left-handed bat that many project to move off of shortstop in the near future. His hands are good but his foot speed is below-average prompting projections that he could stick at second base, although third base seems like a better profile, given his frame. Still, one source likes his footwork and hands and thinks Arias’ unusually-proportioned body may play at shortstop longer than expected, like Juan Uribe, especially given his plus arm.

Arias is talked about in the same $1 million neighborhood as Aristy, and BA reports he’s likely sign with the Yankees, for a bonus as high as $1.4 million. While that wouldn’t be shocking, that number is higher than anything I’ve heard on Arias.

10. Jose Osoria, SS, Dominican Republic
As mentioned above, Osoria has a similar profile to Aristy, as a glove-first shortstop with limited offensive upside. So, you can copy the words from Aristy’s report, adjust down a hundred thousand dollars or so and be pretty much on point with Osoria’s skills.

Beyond that, anything more than general information on Osoria has been tough to come by as he hasn’t been easy for scouts to get a look at. Considering that there were a number of teams showing interest in Osoria earlier in the process, it’s almost a lock that he’s got a deal already done, but trying to figure out which team is anyone’s guess.

The “Could Be” Millionaires

11. Ramon Flores, OF, Venezuela
Flores is an unheralded prospect that has shown an oustanding hitting ability for scouts, but due to questionable power, has an uncertain professional profile. If you follow the draft, you know that an uncertain profile as an outfield ‘tweener, without enough speed for center, or enough power to be a solid starter at a corner spot, leaves you in limbo and usually ends up costing the player a lot of money.

Flores shows an advanced hitability that some say could make him a .300 hitter someday. It goes without saying that not all project Flores’ bat so favorably, that he’s a little rough around the edges, he’s 16, blah, blah, blah, you get the idea. His power is more gap-to-gap and is based on hard, consistent contact moreso than freakish bat speed or strength, but most think it can be average, producing about 15 homers annually in the end. Flores has deceiving average speed that will play in a corner outfield spot and should be able to garner a bonus of $700,000 or more.

12. Gustavo Pierre, 3B, Dominican Republic
Pierre is another of the Dominican shortstops, but basically no one thinks he can stick there; third base and left field are the two most common positional projections. His bat shows flashes, but how good his bat has looked varies from one game, BP session, or workout to another. He has sound swing mechanics, but showing an inability to consistently perform in game situations has some teams worried about his long-term prospects.

At 6′2 and 175 pounds, Pierre has some projection left in his frame, quick feet, and some power potential. He has been connected to the Blue Jays for some time, and figures to get a bonus in the $600,000 to $700,000 range.

13. Ismael Guillon, LHP, Venezuela
Guillon is a big 6′3 lefthander that hasn’t been seen a whole lot, but has a good amount of polish for a 16 year old. He has a larger, more filled-out frame compared to fellow 6′3 Venezuelan hurler Portillo, and throws from the left side, but has a lower upside. Guillon works in the high 80s with his fastball and lacks bigtime projection, but has 3 workable pitches and some feel for pitching. He figures to get a bonus of about $700,000 as well.

14. George Drullal, 3B, Dominican Republic
Drullal is another under-the-radar prospect with some enticing upside. Drullal shows a solid swing, some power potential, and enough athleticism to profile as a pro third baseman. He is more raw than the hitting prospects listed above him, but not that many 16 year old hitters look much like they do at 25, so at this juncture of the rankings, you’re looking for elements you want to bet on. The Mets are heavily rumored to be the team that likes Drullal the best and his bonus could be as high as $700,000, which apparently is the buzz price for players of this ability.

15. Francisco Valdivia, RHP, Nicaragua
Not too many teams have seen Valdivia, the only Nicaraguan on this list, in game conditions, so there will be a lot of projecting to be made on a small sample of performance. But, as said above with Drullal, you can’t be too picky with the now-abilities of 16 year olds.

Valdivia has an extremely projectable frame at 6′3 and 180 pounds, and shows an average fastball with good sink from a three-quarters arm angle that has hit 92. He is raw, lacking high-level instruction and experience. Predictably, he lacks refinement in his secondary pitches and has mechanics that need to be reworked, but has a high risk/reward ratio.

The Sleeper

Christian Betancourt, C, Panama
Betancourt actually turned 17 before July 2nd, so he was eligible to sign before the rest of these prospects and inked a deal with the Braves in March for $600,000. Betancourt owns an underrated mix of tools that are solid across the boards and don’t jump out at first glance. More importantly, for such a young player, he also shows the kind of work ethic and attitude you like to see from young backstops—he just gets it done.

For more names in the mix, check ESPN’s International primer and for more in-depth and breaking news on the international front check the always reliable Baseball America.

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As mentioned in the last article, SaberScouting.com’s sources are indicating that 16 year old Dominican right-hander Michel Inoa is expected to sign with the Oakland A’s for a bonus between $4.25 million and $4.50 million as the headliner of the international signing period that starts on July 2nd.

Inoa has a frontline starter profile despite being only 16 years old, and has the potential to be a Rick Porcello-level prospect when he’s 18. There are still plenty of big-time players available after Inoa, and, as usual, it includes projectable arms and toolsy bats.

The top bat is up for debate, with some people in the camp of Rafael Rodriguez, a power-hitting outfielder from the Dominican, but the majority prefer Yorman Rodriguez (no relation) who is a tooled-up Venezuelan centerfielder with Carlos Beltran-like upside.

The top arm after Inoa is Adis Portillo, an inconsistent, lanky righty from Venezuela that shows flashes of low 90’s velocity and a solid curveball and changeup. He figures to get an inflated price as the consolation prize to the clubs who weren’t willing to pay the price for Inoa.

Check out a comprehensive Inoa scouting report after the jump, and stay tuned for reports on the rest of the top 15 Latin prospects coming shortly…

(Michel Inoa photo credit: Victor Perez/ESPNDeportes.com)

1. Michel Inoa, RHP, Dominican Republic
There has certainly been much said about Inoa in recent weeks, so I’ll stick to reporting what I’ve heard rather that what you can already read there. Inoa is 6′7 and an athletic 205 pound right-handed pitcher whose fastball has been as high as 96, but sits in the 91-93 range presently.

He is especially noted for his outstanding frame: he’s already enormous for a 16 year old, but has plenty of remaining projection, amazing body control, and mechanics that translate into borderline unbelievable command for his age and size. Most 6′7 teenage pitchers (there aren’t that many to begin with) are gangly, all arms and legs, raw, lack command and body control, and generally just a long way from being a finished product. One source termed Inoa frame as, “a basketball body with some definition—he’s still skinny—but he’s projectable and has basketball athleticism.”

These qualities have some projecting him to hit 100 in a few years, and that isn’t too far-fetched considering the fact that he’s had little to no high-level coaching. Inoa’s mechanics are clean and the ball “comes out of his hand shockingly easy,” according to another source. Inoa comes from an athletic family, has a clean and fluid arm action, and earns high marks for his makeup and work ethic.

Inoa has advanced feel a curveball that already flashes above-average and most project for plus, along with a splitter than one insider called “dirty.” He’s been called a , “once in a decade talent,” by more than a few. The first source said that elements of Inoa remind him of Dellin Betances as a high school prospect, with the big projectable frame, lack of high-level instruction, easy velocity, and feel for a potential plus curveball, but then points out the differences that make Betances a $1 million bonus 18 year old and figure to make Inoa a $4 million plus bonus player at 16 years old.

Inoa has superior body control, command, and third pitch with an overall more polished package, and obviously is two years younger. He could very well be Rick Porcello in two years and that would seem to make $4 million a bargain. I’ll get into more detail about the logic and risk of amateur bonuses and Latin versus draft spending an article after the Latin scouting reports.

By now, tou can see what kind of talent Inoa has; plenty to justify multiple visits to the Dominican from big hitters like Brian Cashman and reportedly four visits from Billy Beane. The talk has been until recently that the Yankees were out in front and the final price would be in the $3.0 million to $3.5 million range, but it appears once talk of numbers north of that range became prevalent, most teams still in the running dropped out almost on principle, if $4 million is the new starting point.

Since I know anyone that’s reading this site desperately wants a breakdown on the 20-80 scale for Inoa, I’ll do the irresponsible thing and throw you a bone. I won’t be so foolish as to come up with an OFP, since Latin prospects have a completely different scale, just like the draft amateurs and professional players do, but these 20-80 grades come after consulting a few sources, so it’s pretty close to the stuff on a team’s scouting report.

Fastball: 55/70
Curveball: 50/60
Splitter: 45/55
Command: 45/60

Those future grades are on par with what I came up with after seeing Rick Porcello, while the present grades, obviously, aren’t a whole lot to write home about on their own, but from a 16 year old, it’s enough to write…well, a little over 600 words so far.

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Frankie and I have been busy gathering more information for articles, with a comprehensive 2009 draft preview, 2008 draft review, Cape Cod Reports, Florida State League reports, Trade Rumors, and MLB Analysis all on the way in the coming days and weeks. The most pressing of these topics is the International signing period, which opens on July 2nd, when clubs can sign the newly-eligible 16 year old talent from Latin America.

Much has been made of this season’s crop, mostly because of the headlining prospect, imposing righthander Michel Inoa, and his reported enormous demands. Based on the conversations I’ve had with Latin American sources, not only will Inoa easily break the bonus record ($2.44 million to Wily Mo Pena, pictured at right), he may come close to doubling it.

SaberScouting.com’s sources have indicated that the Oakland A’s are willing to go over $4 million to sign Inoa and are the heavy favorites to sign him, for a record bonus as high as $4.5 million.

The other teams in the running haven’t shown the consistent interest the A’s have, including multiple visits from Billy Beane, and most teams aren’t willing to break the $4 million barrier.

In an environment where you have to pay a competitive bonus and “recruit” the player like a high school football star, teams that are called heavy favorites late in the process almost always close the deal.

Check out some notes on the upcoming International signing period, which starts on July 2nd, after the jump…

There is more to this year’s crop than just the top talent, though this year promises to have the more Latin millionaires than any other, and that is a function both of the amount of talent and also organizations eager to find a place to spend their money.

The real storyline going forward from this July 2nd is going be clubs like Oakland and San Diego coming out of the woodwork to be major players on the international scene, as the potential return on international prospects is such now that almost every team is extremely active in Latin American now, even if with lower-bonus type prospects.

There are some interesting dynamics at play in Latin America that I’ll cover in the next few articles, but I’ll go over a quick economic breakdown of what should happen on July 2nd before we get to the scouting reports.

How Much Money Is In Play?

According to one executive, for all of 2004, only 8-9 teams spent $1 million total in Latin America, and this season, it is expected that 20-22 teams will spend a total of $1 million or more. That is a function of a great talent crop, teams having more money to spend, and infrastructure including scouting networks and academies now being in place for many teams that recently established a presence in the two hotbed countries: Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.

Small market teams are realizing that to have a chance to win they have be successful at scouting, be willing to go over slot at times in the draft, but also must be a player of some kind in Latin America. There is talk of some teams doubling their Latin budgets from roughly 30% of their total amateur budget to nearly 60% to try to take advantage of the value that can be found in these countries if done right.

As far as total money spent by all teams, roughly $50 million was spent last year in Latin America and that number is expected to jump to about $65 million this year—a 30% increase in one year.

The poster child for this increase in Latin spending is the Oakland A’s. They have already spent $350,000 on toolsy 17 year old Dominican OF Robin Rosario, signed another prospect for $100,000, have added a few lesser profile players, and are prepared to offer over $4 million to Inoa, the headliner for a July 2nd rush that could include more top talent. Oakland has already spent, before July 2nd, an amount that exceeds their last three years’ Latin bonuses combined.

How Many Millionaires?

On a per-player basis, last season there were three Latin millionaires: 3B Michael Almanzar ($1.5 million to the Red Sox), OF Kelvin DeLeon ($1.1 million to the Yankees), and SS Jharmidy DeJesus ($1.0 million to the Mariners). This year, you can expect anywhere from 5 to 10 millionaires, with many insiders suggesting 7-8 as the likely number.

An interesting dynamic to keep an eye on are inflated prices for players originally projected to get between $500,000 and $1 million. The clubs that don’t get their big money targets in the $1 million and higher category will fight each other and bid up for the second tier guys. With more teams on the international scene, that should push a number of projection-based players figured to sign in the mid-to-high six figures to become members of the millionaire club.

Inoa Getting Lots of Love

As for Michel Inoa, it’s been indicated that at least a few teams have a policy, informal or stated, not to pay a certain amount for July 2nd pitchers; such as a cutoff at $250,000, $500,000, or as high as $1 million for other teams. Inoa was called a, “philosophy changer,” by one insider and, by all accounts, there were 10-15 teams on Inoa as his price climbed from $2.0 million to $3.5 million. Now that the bidding appears to have reached $4.0 million or more, it looks like there may only be a few teams still in the running.

One thing is for sure: whichever teams ends up with the big right-hander will have a highly-coveted prize.

The Loophole Millionaire and the Defector

The above projections don’t include two notable international talents. The first is power-hitting Dominican OF Juan Duran that the Reds signed for $2.0 million in March due to a little known age loophole, as every other team assumed he wasn’t eligible to sign until this July 2nd.

While the Reds rave about Duran’s right field arm, advanced bat, and big power, one source I spoke with was much more skeptical of Duran. The executive described Duran’s hitability as average and while the power is plus, Duran’s defensive tools would only play at 1B and the bat isn’t on the same level as previous July 2nd bonus babies like Giants’ 1B Angel Villalona ($2.1 million) and Yankees’ C Jesus Montero ($1.6 million), making Duran is more of a high six-figure to low seven-figure prospect.

Recent Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo is a 19 year old impact corner bat with skills along the lines of Villalona and Angels’ Cuban defector 1B Kendry Morales. It appears Viciedo will not become a international free agent like Jose Contreras, Livan Hernadez, and many other Cubans defectors who defected to Caribbean countries have, but rather a prospect for the amateur draft, as Yunel Escobar did when he defected to America.

This appears to be the case because, instead of defecting to another Caribbean country to establish residency and become an international free agent like any July 2nd prospect, Viciedo quietly came to America in late May, making him subject to the amateur draft, but because MLB was not aware of his defection, he was not on the list of players that could be drafted in this month’s draft, which would then make him eligible for the 2009 draft. Viciedo’s agent, Jaime Torres, is trying to convince MLB that since Viciedo was processed a month before June’s 2008 draft, that he was draft-eligible this year and going undrafted would make him a free agent presently.

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

It’s been awhile since we’ve last published something here at SaberScouting, but don’t worry, we’re still here, we just took a break after the draft.

The draft answers will be coming soon—we tried a high-tech way of bringing those to you and it didn’t really work out. You’ll see those answers soon, we’re just not sure if it’ll be the fancy or scaled-down version.

Also, in the rush to get out our draft content, I’m back-logged by about 10-12 Florida State League games with some legit prospect reports on the way.

I just saw Jeremy Jeffress a few days ago, and since I’m a sucker for the most recent new shiny object, I decided to tackle him first.

As you might guess, given his pedigree as a Dwight Gooden-comped first round pick, Jeremy Jeffress has loads of talent and that certainly describes what I saw in his last outing.

Jeffress also comes with off-field issues that some teams are concerned about, and there are, as you would expect, some rough edges to iron out on the field as well.

Come on in and take a look at the full scouting report and video, after the jump…

(Jeffress photo credit: West Virginia Power)

Here’s a look at some video I took of Jeffress at this outing.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHS, Brevard County Manatees (Milwaukee)

Pitch - Present/Future Grades

Fastball - 65/65

Curveball - 50/60

Changeup -50/55

Command - 45/50

Physical Description - Listed at 6′0, 197, but looks lighter than that listed weight with a loosely-fitting uniform and thin build. Body looks more like a speed-based athlete, like a punt returner or center fielder than a pitcher. Square shoulders, slight build throughout with more strength than it appears and athleticism to burn. Comparison-wise is inbetween a 6′2 Ervin Santana and 5′10 Johnny Cueto as far as shorter and slim power righties.

Fastball - 65/65

Explosive at 92-95 mph throughout the game, hitting 97 when he wanted to, usually to get a K to close out an inning. Most of these fastballs are four-seamers and didn’t feature much movement, but the deception created by such easy velocity with a quick arm coming in at a higher than expected arm angle (see comparison with Verlander at right) allows it to sneak up on hitters.

[Note: It’s tough to see the easiness of the velocity in the video I took as it only shows him from the stretch when he’s fatigued; take a look at the two videos at the end of the report for a better idea.]

Despite a lack of downhill plane or sink on his fastball, the late life Jeffress gets with a fastball that seems to jump at hitters, along with effective command down in the zone, creates a good amount of groundballs, belied by the stats that say he’s solidly above-average in that regard this season.

Jeffress also had good command of his fastball: he only left it up with a purpose, and would come inside (always at least 94 when he did) and move it back outside and hit his spots. This command faltered later in the game, but that is almost expected with young power arms still figuring things out.

He also had what I call a mechanical cutter, because it appears to be purely a product of throwing across his body, a risky move mechanically, harmful to keep doing repeatedly, but a more effective pitch, similar to what some power pitchers like Kerry Wood tend to do.

This theory was backed up by the fact that the pitch appeared randomly later in the outing when he was getting tired, but just goes to show how electric of an arm he has; he almost gets dirtier when he’s tired, sloppier, and has a delivery with more effort. This pitch didn’t have much depth, but at 93 mph, it had plus velocity and plus late bite that could become a real weapon if he could learn to harness it effectively.

Curveball -50/60

This pitch was disappointing in the first few innings as he focused on a fastball/changeup combination and showed no feel for a below-average spinner that hung up in the zone and backed up on him quite a bit. Jeffress’ curveball is an effort for him: he’s been tinkering with different grips, he has more effort in his delivery when he’s throwing it, he raises his arm angle a bit, and then jerks his head some to make room for his arm. But, he did find the pitch after a few innings.

Around the third inning, Jeffress found the feel and starting throwing it a little too much, but this shift was warranted as he showed a power hammer that flashed out-pitch potential. He threw a 78-81 mph bender with sharp late break and good depth that was short at times, but showed above-average potential.

Toward the end of his outing, he showed a more aggressive pitch at 82-84 mph that was about as hard as a curveball can be thrown with the same depth and more bite. I don’t know if the 82-84 mph plus hammer can be thrown throughout a whole start, or if it was equivalent to a 96-97 mph fastball effort-wise, but I know there’s a 60 curveball in the tank. He’s in between a 55 and 60 future grade on the curveball for me, as I’m projecting him to start, but I opted to round up in this instance since he showed 60 curve while still not having full feel for the pitch yet; that’s reason for optimism here.

Changeup - 50/55

Just like his curveball, Jeffress’ changeup has made strides since signing as a raw arm out of high school. It’s now a solidly average pitch that reminded me of Johnny Cueto’s changeup in that it comes from a high arm angle and doesn’t have much fade, but a good amount of late sink and loads of deception and confidence from a short power right hander that helps it play up.

As mentioned above, Jeffress relied on this pitch more early in the outing, and I noted next to each one that you simply couldn’t see it coming. And when you can’t tell the difference until it’s too late between 80-81 mph with sink and 92-97 without sink, that can get some goofy swings.

This pitch likely will never be an out-pitch and is much closer to average for me than above-average as far as movement goes, but a computer could grade pitches on movement (why haven’t the Pitch F/X gurus tried this?), and the deception for this pitch is outstanding, especially from the type of guy you don’t expect to see that from.

Command - 45/50

Here is yet another area where Jeffress has improved greatly since signing, and even from last season in the Sally League. I’ll cover the objective measures of this in the stats section, and this was the first time I had seen him in person, so I’ll stick to breaking down what I saw.

Jeffress was unhittable early in the game, and only gave up one hit (on a hanging curve) and one run (walk and steal before the hit) before the implosion happened. Suffice it to say that it isn’t normal for a pitcher to strikeout 10, walk 1, give up 4 hits, and manage to do that in only 4.1 innings, while giving up 6 earned runs. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if that exact line had never been pitched before in baseball history.

Jeffress was cruising to a standard top prospect outing of, say, 7 innings, 5 hits, 1 earned, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts when the wheels fell off; there were a few things at work here.

First, it was raining, and while you can’t read too much into one outing, Jeffress gave up a couple baserunners, hit two batters, had a defensive miscue behind him, and it all snowballed on him and in the span of about 15 minutes; he went from dazzling the crowd and dominating on a picture perfect evening to leaving with a hung head and a 7-run deficit in the pouring rain with fans ducking for cover.

I said above that Jeffress was commanding his fastball well to the corners and down in the zone, he kept his solid change down in the zone, and he was burying his curveball more times than not while generally hitting his spots until he started throwing his curve too much and hitters sat on it. He certainly had above-average big league command early in the outing, and about 30 command once the snowballing had begun: what’s going on here?

Some question the starter profile for Jeffress due mainly to the issue, but the 3 pitches are there, and he wasn’t getting hit because he was going through the lineup the third time, he simply wasn’t the same pitcher he was the first two times through, and this has happened before. Check the linescore for his May 26th outing versus Daytona: 3 scoreless, then 9 runs in 2 innings, all with a 7 strikeouts and 1 walk. Sounds eerily similar.

This isn’t a lack of command, it’s good command, great stuff, and the thing many people question about Jeffress given his 50-game suspension last season for smoking pot; his head. He appears to be making strides to move away from that, but ultimately, does Jeffress have the mental ability to be an effective big leaguer? Check out the ERAs of each of his last six starts: 16.87, 0.00, 17.36, 1.29, 0.00, 12.46.

This is the type of guy that won’t be fast-tracked until at least two of those three high numbers aren’t on his recent game log, and just like with the feel for a curveball issue I touched on earlier, is this a lightbulb turning on one morning, a slow process, or something that never happens? It would be a shame if it was the latter given all the talent he has and all the progress he’s already made.

Mechanics

Jeffress has outstanding mechanics: a clean arm action, aggressive weight transfer, a quick power pitcher’s tempo, big time velocity without extreme arm torque but effective body torque, leads with a powerful yet controlled front side, keeps his elbow relatively low compared to his shoulder in the arm stroke…just all the good stuff you’re looking for. Similar to Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar, names you’ll see later in the article as well.

Statistics

I can get my two points across in this section with just two simple tables, but I’ll one up that and actually include a short commentary on each:

Table 1

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This tells the story of Jeremy Jeffress’ 2008 season in prospect terms. The BB and K rate stats are both enough on their own to be very impressive, but both of them happening to the same pitcher in the same season is reason for excitement.

He also has improved his GO/AO rate, and that is purely a function of command, as he isn’t throwing a fastball with any more sink or downward plane, he’s just commanding the pitch better (down in the zone) and getting more weak contact and grounders. I can’t find the 2007 GB/FB numbers, but the 2008 rate is 2.18, well above-average.

Jeffress has gone from a raw thrower just out of high school with loads of potential to a young power pitcher with polish and upside, the tantalizing combo teams will pay through the nose for. If you want 2008 breakout seasons, Jeremy Hellickson is a good place to start, but Jeremy Jeffress isn’t far behind.

Table 2

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This table, if you look at the earned runs, tell the story of the mental battle Jeffress needs to learn how to win. If you look in the BB and K columns, you see the ability that will shine through in the big leagues if this happens. This is the thing Jeffress must fix to realize most of that remaining upside, and will also decide what kind of career he’ll have: minor league lifer that can’t stick in the bigs, or big league success of some type. There really isn’t much more to say, he’ll either do it or he won’t and it’s almost impossible to project without knowing him well.

Summary

This full package is somewhat similar to Johnny Cueto, but even moreso to the last FSL prospect I profiled, Jeremy Hellickson, just with less consistent command and two notches more velocity. The other differences are negligible other than Jeffress’ athleticism. Which one would I take? Good question. I went back and forth about 5 times while I was writing this and ultimately went with Jeffress because he’s got more stuff and more ultimate upside. That being said, I’m not totally sold on Jeffress’ ability to reach his ceiling and maximize his talent, while I am sold on Hellickson’s ability to do the same. I’ll probably change my mind a few more times this month.

Jeffress also elicits a projection to the bullpen from some that I just don’t see. His stuff certainly would profile and play up in the pen, but his command and consistency lapses aren’t due to going through a lineup multiple times as much as it is dealing with adversity, which may happen as much if not more in short stints late in the game as a reliever.

With a fastball that hits 97, a plus hammer curve, and above-average changeup, flashes of above-average command, a clean arm, efficient power mechanics, and groundball tendencies, Jeffress certainly has the complete package to be a frontline starter if he puts it all together. He has #1 starter potential if everything comes together and you can’t say that about very many humans on Earth.

If the stuff and command develop just a little bit and he’s an inconsistent guy with frontline stuff at the big league level, then that’s a solid #3 starter that would show flashes of a #2 starter for stretches, a Kelvim Escobar-like career path. I think that’s a likely outcome, and a big initial splash in the league like Johnny Cueto or Dontrelle Willis wouldn’t surprise me at all.

As for what Jeffress is right now, I’d say he’s a solid spare arm for one trip through a lineup at the big level, living off his fastball life and command, which would be a present group D swing guy with a projected role of a #2/#3 starter, a solid B group prospect overall.

See SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial for an explanation of this collection of odd jargon and numbers.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 58
Present Group: D
Future Group: B
Projected Role: #2/#3 Starter
MLB ETA: Full-Time in 2010
Overall Comparison: Somewhere in the Kelvim Escobar/Johnny Cueto/Ervin Santana continuum

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.

As part our post-draft coverage, we thought the best approach would be to cover things that our readers wanted to hear about. We weren’t able to cover every player in our top 100 or get out all the content we wanted to before the draft started, but we still have that raw information.

Rather than let it sit, or do a cookie-cutter post-mortem you could find anywhere, we’ll field your questions and be the open source style resource we wanted for draft info when we started following the draft.

So, hit the new e-mail address we’ve set up for the mailbag, mailbag@saberscouting.com, and tell us what you want to know.

It could be breaking down some tools top 25 capsule style, maybe a mechanical look at someone (obviously won’t be too many of those given time considerations), breaking down how your favorite team approached the draft, or just sharing some dope we might have on signability and why-did-they-pick-him type stuff.

So, gather up all those questions and send them to mailbag@saberscouting.com and we’ll try to answer as many as we can, and there may be a special surprise for you guys tomorrow, I just don’t want to jinx it yet. It may or may not include Matthew Lesko, the creepy question mark suit guy.

Okay it doesn’t include him. But that’s because he wouldn’t respond to our interview request to talk about the history of the question mark. Stay tuned!

This is the place where I’ll yammer on and on about all kinds of stuff. Join me in the comments with some of your thoughts, or hit me at kiley@saberscouting.com.

And if you’d like to talk to Frankie, he’s liveblogging this thing for FoxSports.com here.

Join me after the jump for periodic updates and an updated stab at the mock draft just before we get started.

Here’s my last attempt at mocking these picks, but not before a note about last night’s mock update before we get going here. The heavy rumors of Jersey prep arm Jason Knapp to Philly would’ve had me project him there…but it was really late and I forgot. Just a housekeeping note for those of you that want to hold me to every prediction I’ve made.

Many of these picks are reportedly done deals, some are still up in the air. The difference? Perceived accuracy, so I won’t say which ones I’m confident in. And if you want some info on these players and mock commentary, check out the first half of the mock draft, the updated top 100 prospects list, or just poke around the site’s last few posts and you’ll probably find what you’re looking for.

1:44 PM

1. TB - Tim Beckham

2. PIT - Pedro Alvarez

3. KC - Eric Hosmer

4. BAL - Brian Matusz

5. SF - Justin Smoak

6. FLA - Kyle Skipworth

7. CIN - Gordon Beckham

8. CHW - Yonder Alonso

9. WSH - Aaron Crow

10. HOU - Brett Lawrie

11.