by Kiley McDaniel

As you might guess, given his pedigree as a Dwight Gooden-comped first round pick, Jeremy Jeffress has loads of talent.

Jeffress also comes with off-field issues that some teams are concerned about, and there are, as you would expect, some rough edges to iron out on the field as well.

Come on in and take a look at the full scouting report and video, after the jump…

Here’s a look at some video I took of Jeffress at this outing.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHS, Brevard County Manatees (Milwaukee)

Pitch - Present/Future Grades
Fastball - 65/65
Curveball - 50/60
Changeup -50/55
Command - 45/50

Physical Description - Listed at 6′0, 197, but looks lighter than that listed weight with a loosely-fitting uniform and thin build. Body looks more like a speed-based athlete, like a punt returner or center fielder than a pitcher. Square shoulders, slight build throughout with more strength than it appears and athleticism to burn. Comparison-wise is inbetween a 6′2 Ervin Santana and 5′10 Johnny Cueto as far as shorter and slim power righties.

Fastball - 65/65

Explosive at 92-95 mph throughout the game, hitting 97 when he wanted to, usually to get a K to close out an inning. Most of these fastballs are four-seamers and didn’t feature much movement, but the deception created by such easy velocity with a quick arm allows it to sneak up on hitters.

Despite a lack of downhill plane or sink on his fastball, the late life Jeffress gets with a fastball that seems to jump at hitters, along with effective command down in the zone, creates a good amount of groundballs, belied by the stats that say he’s solidly above-average in that regard this season.

Jeffress also had good command of his fastball: he only left it up with a purpose, and would come inside (always at least 94 when he did) and move it back outside and hit his spots. This command faltered later in the game, but that is almost expected with young power arms still figuring things out.

He also had what I call a mechanical cutter, because the cut appears to be purely a product of throwing across his body and harmful to keep repeating, though it creates a more effective pitch, similar to what some power pitchers like Kerry Wood tend to do.

This pitch didn’t have much depth, but at 93 mph, it had plus velocity and plus late bite that could become a real weapon if he could learn to harness it.

Curveball -50/60

This pitch was disappointing in the first few innings as he focused on a fastball/changeup combination and showed no feel for a below-average spinner that hung up in the zone and that backed up on him quite a bit.

Jeffress’ curveball is an effort for him: he’s been tinkering with different grips, and in the first two innings, he had more effort in his delivery on the curve, raised his arm angle a bit, and jerked his head some to make room for his arm. But he did find the pitch in the third inning and starting throwing it a little too much, but this shift was warranted as he showed a power hammer that flashed out-pitch potential. He threw a 78-81 mph bender with sharp late break and good depth that was short at times, but showed above-average potential.

Toward the end of his outing, he showed a more aggressive pitch at 82-84 mph that was about as hard as a curveball can be thrown with the same depth and more bite. I don’t know if the 82-84 mph plus hammer can be thrown throughout a whole start, or if it was equivalent to a 96-97 mph fastball effort-wise, but I know there’s a 60 curveball in the tank. He’s between a 55 and 60 future grade on the curveball for me, but I opted to round up in this instance since he showed 60 curve while still not having full feel for the pitch yet; that’s reason for optimism here.

Changeup - 50/55

Just like his curveball, Jeffress’ changeup has made strides since signing as a raw arm out of high school. It’s now a solidly average pitch that reminded me of Johnny Cueto’s changeup in that it comes from a high arm angle and doesn’t have much fade, but a good amount of late sink and loads of deception and confidence from a shorter power right-hander.

As mentioned above, Jeffress relied on this pitch more early in the outing, and I noted next to each one that you simply couldn’t see it coming. And when you can’t tell the difference until it’s too late between 80-81 mph with sink and 92-97 without sink, that can get some goofy swings from Class-A hitters.

This pitch likely will never be an out-pitch and is much closer to average for me than above-average as far as movement goes, but the deception and flashes of command for this pitch are outstanding, especially from the type of guy you don’t expect to see that from.

Command - 45/50

Here is yet another area where Jeffress has improved greatly since signing, and even from last season in the Sally League. He was unhittable early in the game, and only gave up one hit (on a hanging curve) and one run (walk and steal before the hit) before the implosion happened.

Jeffress was commanding his fastball well to the corners and down in the zone and he kept off-speed stuff down until he started throwing his curve too much and hitters sat on it. He certainly had above-average big league command early in the outing and about 30 command once the snowballing had begun: what’s going on here?

Some question the starter profile for Jeffress due mainly to this issue, but the 3 pitches are there, and he wasn’t getting hit because he was going through the lineup the third time, he simply wasn’t the same pitcher he was the first two times through, and this has happened before. Check the linescore for his May 26th outing versus Daytona: 3 scoreless, then 9 runs in 2 innings.

This isn’t a lack of command, it’s good command, great stuff, and the thing many people question about Jeffress given his 50-game suspension last season for smoking pot; his head. He appears to be making strides to move away from that, but ultimately, does Jeffress have the mental ability to be an effective big leaguer? Check out the ERAs of each of his last six starts: 16.87, 0.00, 17.36, 1.29, 0.00, 12.46.

Jeffress needs some of those high numbers disappear, and just like with the feel for a curveball issue I touched on earlier, is this a lightbulb turning on one day, a slow process, or something that never happens?

Mechanics

Jeffress has outstanding mechanics: a clean arm action, aggressive weight transfer, a quick power pitcher’s tempo, big time velocity without extreme arm torque but effective body torque, leads with a powerful yet controlled front side, keeps his elbow relatively low compared to his shoulder in the arm stroke; just all the good stuff you’re looking for. Similar to Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar, names you’ll see later in the article as well.

Statistics

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This tells the story of Jeremy Jeffress’ 2008 season in prospect terms. The BB and K rate stats are both enough on their own to be very impressive, but both of them happening to the same pitcher in the same season is reason for excitement.

He also has improved his GO/AO rate, and that is purely a function of command, as he isn’t throwing a fastball with any more sink or downward plane, he’s just commanding the pitch better and getting more weak contact and grounders. I can’t find the 2007 GB/FB numbers, but the 2008 rate is 2.18, well above-average.

Summary

Jeffress elicits projections to the bullpen from some that I just don’t see. His stuff certainly would profile and play up in the pen, but his command and consistency lapses aren’t due to going through a lineup multiple times as much as it is dealing with adversity, which may happen as much if not more in short stints late in the game as a reliever.

With a fastball that hits 97, plus hammer, above-average changeup, flashes of above-average command, a clean arm, efficient power mechanics, and groundball tendencies, Jeffress certainly has the complete package to be a #1 starter if everything comes together and you can’t say that about very many humans on Earth.

As for what Jeffress is right now, I’d say he’s a solid spare arm for one trip through a lineup at the big level, living off his fastball life and command, which would be a present group D swing guy with a projected role of a #2/#3 starter, a solid B group prospect overall.

See SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial for an explanation of the of jargon and numbers.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 58
Present Group: D
Future Group: B
Projected Role: #2/#3 Starter
MLB ETA: Full-Time in 2010
Overall Comparison: Somewhere in the Kelvim Escobar/Johnny Cueto/Ervin Santana continuum