By Kiley McDaniel

I got a chance recently to see one of the more intriguing breakout prospects of the young 2008 minor league season, Rays right-hander Jeremy Hellickson.

He has some out of this world numbers this season in the High-A Florida State League for Vero Beach (61-to-3 K/BB ratio in 51.2 IP), and has the pedigree to back it up, as an over-slot 4th round pick out of an Iowa high school in the 2005 draft.

As with most young Rays arms, the organization has wisely taken it slow with Hellickson development-wise and he’s now in High-A in his 3rd full season, but he is now primed for a season of 130-140 innings and a likely promotion to Double-A Montgomery at some point, as he has little left to prove at this level.

Hellickson has also obviously caught the eye of the Rays front office, as top team executives GM Andrew Friedman and Senior VP Gerry Hunsicker were in attendance and were visibly and audibly enthused about Hellickson’s encouraging performance.

Take a closer look at a pitcher that should be rocketing through the best minor league system in the game, after the jump…

Here’s the video I took of Hellickson from this outing. As you can tell, the focus comes and goes, but I think I made up for it by seeing him from about 14 different angles.

Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Vero Beach Devil Rays (Tampa Bay)

Pitch - Present/Future Grades

Fastball - 55/55

Curveball - 50/55

Changeup -50/55

Command - 50/55

Physical Description - He’s listed at 6′1 and 185 lbs, and that looks about right. There’s not much projection left and he’s filled out about as much as his frame will allow. Thin and athletic throughout, looks more like a second baseman really, but among pitchers is along the lines of Scott Kazmir or Tim Hudson.

Fastball - Worked 91 to 93 and kept the velocity late into the outing. Worked off of this pitch traditionally, getting ahead using it aggressively early in the count and then going to the breaking ball for K’s, but would mix in the changeup to keep hitters on their toes. Flashed above-average life and command of the pitch, mostly as late run in on the hands of right-handers. Also showed some solid sink at times. Hellickson’s approach with the fastball was very impressive for a young guy with a smaller frame; to come after hitters with a big boy’s fastball and approach.

Curveball - His breaking ball is a little tough to figure out, but I identified it as a 73-75 mph loopier early-count curve with 10-to-4 slider action and a hard 77-79 mph curve that had sharper downward bite and was more of an 11-to-5 break. I’m not sure if they were two different grips/pitches or just a softer get-me-over, early-count show pitch and a harder swing-and-miss one that are the same pitch thrown two different ways for different situations.

With classification behind us, the slower of the two was average with some upside due to occasional late bite and darting action. He tended to use it arm side to backdoor on left-handed hitters and to hang for a strike against right-handed hitters and give them a different look. The inconsistent life on this pitch could be explained by going arm-side with it frequently; he might not have followed through all the way, and that lack of extension would flatten the pitch out.

The harder of the two was used more often and was a late-count chase pitch that was frequently buried and was easily above-average when on. The pitch would back up and come out flat a few too many times for it to be explained as a slippery ball, so the feel isn’t completely there, but over half of them were late, sharp, and overmatched FSL hitters. This was due to more than just the break, as he almost always put it in the right place in the right count, really maximizing the impact. I think as the consistent feel comes, the command could play this pitch into the plus territory. It may still be a big league out-pitch as is.

Changeup - The changeup was also advanced, and elicited some weird swings as well. It is solidly average right now and flashed above with late fade and depth with excellent deception. Like the curveball, the changeup isn’t quite there yet as he wasn’t getting both the fade and depth consistently and sailed way out of the zone at times, but the deception and potential is there, and when it’s in the zone, Hellickson again is hitting spots. It was a clear third pitch by usage, mostly to keep hitters off of expecting all fastballs before the hard curve comes out.

Mechanics - You can probably tell in our reports that we like to give comparisons to helps fans understand context for what we’re talking about: for the body, mechanics, and overall comparisons. That being said, not many pitcher’s mechanics scream out another big leaguer’s mechanics to me—it’s usually a bit of a reach and sometimes I just leave it blank. Hellickson was one of few for me that I came up with the comp on the first pitch: Brad Penny. Take a look at the video above, and the pictures to the right that show similar stages in the motion.

The motion itself isn’t really textbook. There’s a Hellickson mechanical breakdown coming later, but while he’s controlled and effective with free and easy velocity, and it works for him, there may be some tweaks he can make in the area of weight transfer (quicker) and landing leg (less stiff) that could help improve command and possibly even velocity. Hellickson also falls off to the first base side, but all three of these issues are small and may do more harm than good if tinkered with. You have to take it on a case-by-case basis, and I’m not his pitching coach, so they’re just suggestions at this point.

Comparing these two contrasting pitchers and body types belies the point I made earlier about Hellickson: that he’s a smaller guy that pitches like a big power pitcher, and has the stuff to back it up.

You might think looking at Hellickson that he’s a control/command right-hander, but he comes after hitters like a big power pitcher like Josh Beckett or Brad Penny would, and while Hellickson’s stuff obviously isn’t elite, it’s very good, and his motion, approach, demeanor, and stuff all come at you like you’d expect a 6′5, 220 lb high draft pick would.

Hellickson is completely in control on the mound, works quickly, sometimes really quickly, and has a quiet confidence you don’t normally see in guys his size. And there isn’t really a downside—he isn’t doing anything he can’t sustain in acting like a big flamethrower—he’s just a tough guy with good stuff, good command, and (it appears) all the little things that scouts love that let you project him a little better than a raw OFP might suggest.

As for some of the technical parts of the motion, Hellickson has a real clean arm, works from a classic high 3/4 arm angle, has average deception, and while he doesn’t have great downward plane because of average height, his command and movement have given him average groundball/flyball tendencies.

Notes - It might appear easy enough to just say Hellickson is above-average across the board, as the top of the report states, but there’s a little more granularity to see on the field that just that. He works off of a solid fastball, gets to the out-pitch curve and mixes in the change to keep hitters honest. The curve could be plus as mentioned above, the fastball is 55 but plays up, and the change comes and goes but has upside as well. I think 55 across the board might be a lower-end projection. There’s be a lot of 57.5’s on the board if I was picky enough to go to half-grades.

Part of your job as a scout is seeing more than just raw grades on players and identifying the guys that you want to hitch your wagon to and bet on to improve. I mentioned in numerous other articles that there are a lot of good pitchers in the FSL, but there’s one that will take stuff that some use to fizzle in AA and take it to become a #3 starter in the big leagues. Hellickson is a guy with better stuff that that group, and has the the elements that let me say he’ll overachieve. I’m hitching my wagon to him, because, down the road, this package may play up to 3 plus pitches and plus command—I’d have to see him more to get a better handle on that, but I wouldn’t rule that out at all.

As for the current projection, I think Hellickson could be an effective big leaguer right now, but the inconsistent curve (lack of feel) and flashes of inconsistency (feel and mechanical inconsistency) would make him more of a 5th starter or middle reliever for the time being. He should certainly be in the minors for a number of reasons, but should also be (and probably will be) in Double-A for some time this season.

See SaberScouting’s Scouting Tutorial for an explanation of this collection of odd jargon and numbers.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 57
Present Group: D, Future Group: B
Projected Role: #3 Starter
MLB ETA: Full-Time in 2010
Overall Comparison: Tim Hudson (without the plus sink on the fastball)

Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.