By Kiley McDaniel

The past week I once again went to more Florida State League games than a human probably should and neglected posting because 1) in my spare time I was moving and 2) after putting off a day or two, a ton of info piled up.

Weak excuse, but now we’re about three weeks away from the MLB draft, the minor leagues are hitting their stride, and SaberScouting is about ready to bust at the seams with an information overload, in the form of possible (gasp) multiple articles a day.

Indeed, we’re getting off our lazy butts for the homestretch. Thanks for bearing with us.

In this Florida State League update, I’ll cover yet another Rick Porcello start, but try to show some restraint as we’ve already had him in a full scouting report, formal update to the report, the first chat, and in casual mentions in every other article we’ve written.

I kid, but we’re trying to wane ourselves from Porcello-mania by not even putting up another picture of him when we easily could have. That’s progress.

Also inside are reports on outings by Twins prospects RHP Deolis Guerra (full report here), LHP Tyler Robertson (pictured at right), Tigers sleeper RHP Luis Marte, and still more, all after the jump…

Rick Porcello, RHP, Lakeland (Detroit)

I saw Porcello pitch last Wednesday in Dunedin. His stuff was the weakest of the starts I’ve seen this season, but those kinds of days happen to every pitcher, and those days almost tells scouts more about the pitcher because it shows how the pitcher can battle without his best stuff.

As expected, Porcello was still pretty effective even with his stuff down a tick. He worked 89-91 with his now customary plus movement down and in to right-handed hitters. He actually went back to throwing his curveball a few times for this outing, but it wasn’t the same pitch he had in high school; it had a 3/4 tilt to it, but flashed plus with late bite. More times than not, it was average and Porcello lacked feel for it because 1) he hasn’t thrown it much at all this year and 2) his way of battling with lesser stuff tonight was throwing his fastball on almost every pitch, so he didn’t give himself much of a chance to gain that feel in this game.

The same goes for his changeup which I only saw once, but was easily above-average. As expected, without his best stuff, Porcello kept it simple and attacked, and while his command wasn’t stellar, he just needed to hit the right side of the plate with his sinker to be effective, and he did just that. I’m still convinced, even more after this bottom-of-the-barrel start stuff-wise, that Porcello could pitch effectively as a starter in the big leagues right now, but there is certainly more for him to gain by staying in the minors, and that is the right move for the Tigers and for Porcello.

I took some video of Porcello at this game, but it was grainy and this video I took at a prior start in Clearwater gives you a better idea of the type of pitcher Porcello is:

Deolis Guerra, RHP, Ft. Myers (Minnesota)

I saw Guerra earlier and wrote my preliminary thoughts and a full scouting report with my observations on a somewhat deflating outing from Guerra. The main problem, which I cover in more details in the linked articles, is that Guerra lacks any aggression in his motion (Carlos Gomez is fainting somewhere as he watches this video) and this is costing him significant velocity that he has shown in the past.

Why are the Twins having Guerra do this? All I can suggest is that it’s an effort to keep him more under control in his delivery, or his arm isn’t 100%, or some combination of both.

The bad news is that the first outing I saw from Guerra wasn’t an aberration, he was the same guy when I saw him last Sunday, just with a little more feel. Of course this doesn’t make much sense when he had decent numbers from the first outing and terrible numbers in the second outing, but that just shows you how numbers don’t always tell the story at this level.

Guerra sat at 86-87 and touched 90, but also dipped down to 84 with some two-seamers. His changeup showed improvement from the last time I saw him, flashing some plus ones at 77-79 mph with outstanding deception and late depth and good fade, thrown primarily to left-handed hitters. His true 12-to-6 curveball also showed flashes of plus when he threw it at the upper range of 68-72 mph.

Both of these off-speed pitches would be thrown with different arm speed and Guerra lacked feel—for every above-average pitch, there would be a few 40 pitches mixed in as well. Similarly, Guerra also showed flashes of average command of his repertoire, but would lose his feel just as quickly. So, there’s present skills with a ways to go before a promotion, but you feel better about that situation when the sky is the limit.

Tyler Robertson, LHP, Ft. Myers (Minnesota)

Last Monday, I got a look at somewhat controversial prospect (and John Sickels fave) Twins LHP prospect Tyler Robertson. The story on Robertson, in short-form, is that he’s a big, young, sturdy left-handed starter that has touched 93 with three solid pitches, good command, inconsistent velocity, and a funky arm action. He was all of those things today, and once YouTube stops getting moody with me, I’ll post some video for you.

I’ll also have a full report on him coming soon, but I was underwhelmed by Robertson today. He sat at 86-88 with average movement and spotty command. His secondary pitches were a fringy 67-69 mph slow curveball, a harder 74-76 mph bender with above-average potential, and a 76-80 mph changeup that also flashed above-average.

When the video gets up you’ll see that his arm action is funky and lacks reverse rotation. I’m not sure I’d call it stiff, as some have. It doesn’t cover the full range of motion you like to see, and until I’m able to get a better look at it (he was pulled the inning I was going to get a side view on the video), I’m not sure what the implications are.

Robertson certainly has some things going for him with his size and secondary pitches, and appears to have some feel (came and went in this outing). I talked to a source that has seen Robertson a few times and he confirmed the velocity has been in the mid to upper 80’s for awhile. As long as the velocity is down, the command will have to carry him and the upside is limited to a back-end major league starter, and there’s still a lot that has to go right for that to come true.

Luis Marte, RHP, Lakeland (Detroit)

Against Robertson was a much less-heralded pitcher who may be a better prospect, Tigers RHP Luis Marte. I have some good video on Marte that YouTube won’t let me post that will probably have to wait for the full report as well.

Marte worked at 90-91 with a pretty flat fastball from his smallish frame, but every now and then he would unleash a 93 mph heater with late life down in the zone that exploded out of his hand.

His out-pitch was an 80-84 mph two-plane slider that flashed above-average and Marte showed good command and confidence in the pitch, just as with his fastball.

There wasn’t a changeup to speak of and while Marte’s command and velocity lasted late in the game, his aggressive two-pitch approach from a smaller frame screams bullpen, and potential set-up man if all goes right.

More to come specifically on Marte and Robertson later with full reports and video, along with an unhealthy amount of draft coverage.

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