I’ve been hitting (and will continue to hit, although metaphorically) high school games this week because it is district tournament week here in Florida, and some draft prospects are playing their last games of the season, while others are just getting started on a long journey to the state tournament in Sarasota.
I caught three legit top-5 rounds prospects in the last few days, a couple top minor league prospects, and have lined up the top 2009 high schooler in the country, among others for the rest of the week, so it should be a pretty hectic week with lots of content coming as soon as I’m home long enough to type it.
Inside this News & Notes: Casey Kelly versus Anthony Ferrara showdown with 40 scouts in attendance, A Prince Fielder-Babe Ruth combo HS prospect, and more FSL prospect updates, all after the jump…
(Pictured right: Casey Kelly)
Kelly Outduels Ferrara In Marquee Matchup
The scouts were out in full force to see what was going to be the last game of the high school career of either Sarasota’s SS/RHP Casey Kelly or Riverview’s LHP Anthony Ferrara. Both had been projected from as early as high school freshman up until about 10 months ago as being first round picks. Kelly is still projected as a first rounder, but Ferrara’s stock has dropped with concerns about the health of his arm and his velocity into the mid-rounds. But, since I know you all wanted to, you can throw the records out the window when these rivals meet, and in this case an extra twist was that the tournament was being played at Ferrara’s school.
The story in the early going was how many scouts were in attendance. One team had 4-5 scouting personnel on hand, and more than a few teams had multiple guys in for this game. Needless to say, Kelly has some serious helium with a few teams in the top half of the first round following him closely.
I’ve discussed Kelly in a previous Sarasota Classic notes and Draft Buzz columns and in the Buzz column specifically mentioned the talk of him possibly going in the first round as a pitcher. What I reported in that column is what I saw tonight, sitting 91-93 for half the start, settling it at 88-91 for the other half, but showing a present plus breaking ball was what really separated him as a pitching prospect. The crowd (and I) were split on whether it was a hard spike curve or two-plane slider, but that is besides the point. Kelly continues to show all the making of Derek Jeter with better defense, and now flashes some Michael Main type stuff on the mound just in case he can’t hit in the upper levels.
Kelly and Georgia’s SS Gordon Beckham are two players rising that could either shoot up the draft into the 10-15 (Kelly) and 5-7 (Beckham) pick ranges, or could end up dropping like so many players do down in the first round to the big spenders, as both appear worthy of out-of-the-box deals at this point.
Ferrara certainly looked the part of a solid pick today as well. He’s a solid-bodied LHP with a little projection left that worked at a low three quarters arm angle from 88-90 with the fastball, featured a two-plane curveball, and showed feel for a change. Ferrara can project without much imagination to 3 solid-average pitches with some command, similar to a 2006 3rd round pick from an Orlando high school, LHP Justin Edwards. Ferrara is bigger and has a little more velocity, but Edwards had a tighter breaking ball and less injury concerns.
As for the game, Kelly went the distance as #3 nationally-ranked Sarasota squeaked by 5-4. After getting out of a jam in the 6th inning with a strikeout on a nasty breaking ball, he broke out Tiger Woods’ trademark primal scream and repeated fist pumps. You can easily see why scouts love this guy.
Ever Written Prince FIelder and Babe Ruth in the Comparison Section of a Scouting Report?
If you like off-the-beaten-path draft prospects and unique profile guys, 1B Jamie Mallard from Tampa’s Middleton High is your guy. I’ll try to be delicate, but he’s a big guy, bigger than Prince Fielder. I tried to think of a body comparison when I first saw him and couldn’t think of anyone but Cee-lo, the lead singer for Gnarls Barkley. That struck me as mean, but was all I could think of for a 6′1, 250 (?) guy.
He entered the year as a punch line for scouts that was sure to fulfill his commitment to UCF (my alma-mater). I was content with seeing him for 3 years in Orlando until someone told me he’s been mashing his way into the top 5 rounds and has the best power in the draft, so I went to check him out this week.
I think when I post the full report, he will become an internet sensation the likes of which we’ve never seen before. Here’s his stats as of late last week: .574/.704/1.103 and here’s his stat page. You can’t talk about Mallard without using extremes—his size, his speed, his bat, plate discipline, power, and hittability are all off the scales, and you probably know which ones are high and which are low. I got some good pictures and video of a HR and 2B he hit last week and the swing breakdown/report should be great. Here’s a teaser to keep you going until I post that: not only does he play 3B primarily, but he also pitches…sidearm. He’s more Babe Ruth than anyone I’ve ever seen.
FSL Prospect Update
I’m about to head to a 10:30 AM start (yeah, I know) of a Clearwater-Sarasota game featuring Edgar Garcia, Travis Wood, Adrian Cardenas, Juan Francisco, and Drew Stubbs. Should be good prospecting all around. Then tonight, depending on how some HS games fall and which games get scheduled when, I should be seeing Plant High SS Mychal Givens, a consensus top HS player in the 2009 Draft class, and Jim Callis’ 5th overall prospect for ‘09 (behind 3 college guys and one HS pitcher). I’ve heard fables of his tools as well, so that should be a good one as well. If the game ends up at 5 pm rather than 7 pm, I’ll also be able to hit a minor league game afterwards. This is going to be a busy week.
I saw Joe Savery, Adrian Cardenas, and Travis Snider again this week and should have reports on all up this week, along with a swing breakdown of Snider. I said there was something I didn’t like about him, and after going frame-by-frame on his swing spotted at least on reason, possibly the reason, why he isn’t making a lot of hard contact thus far. I like to think my subconscious hitting coach is so good that I’ll dislike a guy because of a flaw I can only see in super slow-mo, so I’ll stick with that.
And don’t fear Yankee fans who keep asking, a return visit to see Ryan Pope and my first ride this season on the Ivan Nova express will be coming shortly as well.
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15 responses so far ↓
1 Mike R. // Apr 23, 2008 at 11:07 am
You’re comparing a high school prospect to both Cee-lo and Babe Ruth? Wel I think you’re crazyy!!!! I think you’re craaaazyyy!!! Just like meee!! :) Sorry. Couldn’t help myself.
Seriously though. A couple of questions:
- How do you see Kelly’s bat coming along? Do you think he can hit enough to be an elite SS?
- My worry with Mallard is this. I am 29. I weighed 140 when I graduated High school and weigh about 185 now. Is anyone else worried he’ll balloon up further with time?
2 CW // Apr 23, 2008 at 12:05 pm
I have the same question as Mike R. above — I assume there are few questions about Casey Kelly’s defense. However, has his bat really progressed that much that he could go in the mid-First round? I recall that, coming into the season, his bat was a real question mark.
3 Chase // Apr 23, 2008 at 1:32 pm
I like the sound of this Jamie Mallard character. Any team wanting to prove that they aren’t “selling jeans” will pick the big fella early.
4 Jeff // Apr 23, 2008 at 1:57 pm
great work as always…..but, you live in Florida and no Kershaw breakdown? I mean he may be in the majors soon but he is still a 20yo prospect.
5 Jeff // Apr 23, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Casey Kelly= skills of Jeter, passion of Tiger???
are we gonna get a full scouting report anytime soon to see if he profiles as a SS or RHP? Thanks
6 kileymcd // Apr 23, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Reports on Kelly and Mallard are coming shortly, maybe even tonight. Other than 37 GCL innings, Kershaw hasn’t really pitched in the state, other than spring training (will be in AZ next year) and draft workouts maybe.
Mike R,
I should’ve known this would’ve happened. I’m telling you, you can’t talk about this guy without using extremes.
Addressing the Kelly questions,
Kelly’s glove is super for real. Kelly’s bat is the question. I think the power is average The swing mechanics are there, he’s got some feel and is loose at the plate and has results with wood and versus top competition. So all the elements are there. It comes down to whether you buy the makeup and the ability to make adjustments, because with HS bats you just don’t know. I’ll cover it more in depth with the forthcoming Kelly report. The questioners of Kelly’s bat early were honest, now they’re trying to get him to slip to their team. I even heard one guy with a team that may miss out question his defense. It’s smokescreens like the NFL Draft.
Addressing the Mallard questions,
I talked to a scout about him yesterday at the game and we agreed that it comes down to whether he’d sign for low 6-figures now, or if he’s scoff because he thinks he’s a 7-figure guy 3 years from now. More detail on him to come as well.
7 b/c // Apr 23, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Is Mallard out of shape.
Is he the type that could improve with a diet and a workout program.
8 kileymcd // Apr 23, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Anyone could impove, but he’s been big for a long time, he got national exposure at age 12 for a Little League HR record and was a similarly big guy then too. If getting ready for the draft doesn’t motivate him, I don’t know what will. But also, how much would he lose by slimming up? Look at Prince Fielder; that might be why he is who he is. I’ll cover that more in the report, because it applies to his quirky swing as well.
9 Jeff // Apr 23, 2008 at 9:06 pm
kileymcd ,
could have sworn the jacksonville suns were in florida. isn’t that where you are or am I mistaken.
10 Doug Gray // Apr 23, 2008 at 11:24 pm
Can’t wait to see what you have to say about the Reds guys from todays game. It wasn’t Wood’s best game, but still something will be good to read.
11 kileymcd // Apr 24, 2008 at 6:05 am
Okay, I’m officially retarded (about Kershaw). That being said, Jacksonville is 3-4 hours away and is by far the most Southern AA team. I just take the Southern League out of my mind for that reason as far as seeing guys for that reason. I’ll stop talking now.
12 Jeff // Apr 24, 2008 at 2:10 pm
kileymcd,
haha no worries, i just wanted to make sure i was not crazy.
13 Batter Breakdown: Jamie Mallard | Saber-Scouting // Apr 25, 2008 at 5:00 pm
[…] covered earlier in a Notes column just a taste of the legend of Tampa prep 1B Jamie Mallard. Frankie and I both believe that […]
14 News & Notes: The Last Week, Part II | Saber-Scouting // May 5, 2008 at 1:39 am
[…] two of my getting-caught-up recap will cover some of the amateur games I saw since the Kelly-Ferrara recap, while the others will be covered in part three which jointly will span the spectrum of mid-range […]
15 News & Notes: The Last Week, Part III | Saber-Scouting // May 5, 2008 at 1:54 am
[…] three of my getting-caught-up recap will cover the rest of the amateur games I saw since the Kelly-Ferrara recap that weren’t covered in part two of this never-ending recap […]
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