By Kiley McDaniel

Deolis Guerra will likely forever be known as the best pitching prospect traded from the Mets for Johan Santana. That’s unfair to Guerra, because they will always be linked and there’s not much of a chance Guerra even gets into Santana’s league as a pitcher—not many do.

I was able to see Guerra pitch in the Florida State League last week and wanted to weigh in on what I saw, and what Twins fans can expect to see from a wild card of one the biggest trades in team history.

The short answer is you can expect good, maybe great things, just not anytime soon. Guerra was flashing plus ability but with some rough edges.

Check out the full report after the jump…

Here’s the video I took of Guerra from this outing and had a preliminary review of his start here.

Deolis Guerra, RHP, Ft. Myers Miracle (Twins)

Present/Future Grades

Fastball - 35/50

Curveball - 50/60

Changeup - 45/55

Command - 30/50

Physical Description - XL frame, the makings of a workhorse frame with wide shoulders, thick chest, long limbs, developed trunk and solid leg bulk. Still has room to add some weight and appears to still be all arms and legs at some points, good athlete. Scout’s dream in many ways. Resembles Fausto Carmona.

Fastball - He sat at 86-87 mph, but it was almost purely a function of mechanics. If you haven’t yet, fire up the video above and take a look. Even the most untrained eye at fullspeed can see he has no weight transfer and no follow-through body-wise, although he’s good with the arm’s follow-through. Didn’t have much life, but it’s hard to really make any conclusion off of what I saw today. Based off of his size, long arms, looseness in the body and prior reports (which I hate referring to, but have to in this instance), I think he can sit in the 90-92 area with some life, which would be solid-average.

Curveball - This was clearly his third pitch on a day with no command and no velocity, but showed some tight rotation and serious potential. Pitched at 71-72 and had sharp downward break, flashed above-average as a present pitch, and that was with no confidence, no feel, and about 5 ticks lower velocity than normal, so there’s a lot of projection there. It could eventually be an out-pitch. And this is the pitch that the Mets made him work on when he was mostly a fastball-change guy, so this pitch has come a long way.

Changeup - Has historically been called his best pitch and it just wasn’t there today. I think that’s more a function of throwing a good changeup being contingent on feel and he had none today.  It still flashed above-average, but I’ll guess this future grade will jump a notch or two with another viewing. He threw a few changeups at 69-70 with an shockingly noticeable slowed arm speed, then the rest at 75-77. The location was all over the place, but you’re probably sick of hearing that at this point. The deception was great and I’ve talked to one scout that saw him last year and put a 65 on it. All the makings, I just can’t buy it all the way yet.

Command/Mechanics - Not a huge fan of the long-in-the-back arm action, but that’s the type of thing that I think will be fixed when the motion as a whole is sped up/fixed. He was up, fighting himself and overcompensating, changing tempo, stays back too much, could be a little more aggressive, but in this type of outing, we’re looking for mechanical tools, not specifics, since he isn’t getting out of A-ball with today’s delivery. The arm works, the balance is good, the body is good, he’s an athlete, so I’ll stop repeating myself and leave it at that.

Notes - There is reason to believe the velocity will jump and that the changeup is better than I saw today.  Those two things could change everything for Guerra, but on the other hand, maybe he never hits 90 again.

That being said, on a crappy day for him, he flashed two above-average pitches with average command. If anything, this ceiling is among the highest in the minors, and he has a broad base of skills to grow on.  Guerra is a boom or bust guy and I think he takes a step forward over the next 12 months.

Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 55
Present Group: P, Future Group: C+
Projected Role: A solid #3
ETA: Probably 2011 full-time (still only 22 then)
Overall Comparison: A less-funky Bronson Arroyo?