By Kiley McDaniel

Following the quasi-news of the Boras clients’ demands, Saber-Scouting’s coverage of the draft, from the rumors and innuendo side of things, has now kicked into full gear. After conversations with a number of baseball people, we have a draft buzz update chock full of information.

Inside: The Rays narrow the list for the first pick, a heavy favorite for #1, a bunch of hot bats angling for the top 10, and a young Derek Jeter, all after the jump…

The Rays own the first pick in this draft this June and one source with knowledge of the Rays thinking noted that the club is intent on taking a position player with the first overall pick. Granted, it’s still early and things could very well change as the draft approaches, but the candidates under consideration are Georgia prep SS Tim Beckham, Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez, and Georgia SS Gordon Beckham, with the latter Beckham being a clear third amongst these three.

That being said, if there’s a bat with some serious helium this spring, UGA’s offensive powerhouse Gordon Beckham is the man. (He’s the Beckham on the left in the graphic above, for those who are already confused.) He began the season with some momentum after a stellar showing in the Cape Cod League this summer, but has really shot up draft boards with a .427/.513/.855 line through 131 at-bats, with 15 HR, 10 for 11 in stolen bases, and 18 walks to 11 strikeouts. He’s gotten the token mention as longshot choice at #1 overall but his momentum, premium position, potentially quick-moving bat, and low-risk profile add up to the buzz that he could hit his way into the top 5.

Covering all of our Beckham bases, Tim Beckham (the one on the right in the graphic above) has emerged as the near-consensus top prospect thus far. Phrases like “franchise shortstop,” “Edgar Renteria, at least,” and “B.J. Upton, but in the infield” have been tossed around, and he seems like a perfect fit for the Rays with a glut of young pitching and corner talent.

As reported here earlier, Florida prep 1B Eric Hosmer’s agent Scott Boras is allegedly seeking a $7 million bonus, which would be a record bonus amount. At first glance, anything more than $3-$4 million seems completely ridiculous for any high school first baseman, but a few factors might make that lofty number seem more realistic.

Former-Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters received a $6 million bonus from Baltimore in last year’s draft and scouts are universal in taking Hosmer’s bat over Wieters’. Obviously, Wieters’ much-more-challenging defensive position and Hosmer’s not-so-challenging position factor in as well, but if a team believes in Hosmer’s bat, in the draft, Boras tends to get what he wants, or at least close to it. In that same vein, teams are seeing more and more elite draftees (usually over-slot types) making impacts quickly in the big leagues, which goes a long way to giving GMs and scouting directors more job security. Additionally, there are rumblings that the slotting system could get beaten like a red-headed stepchild in this draft as more teams join the big spenders in simply drafting the best player available. Paying Hosmer $7 million still seems on the high side, but paying him $5 million, for instance, considering these factors, doesn’t seem quite so crazy anymore.

Two more college bats making a serious move up draft boards are Florida State catcher Buster Posey and South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak. Posey has drawn some Jason Kendall (pre-gruesome ankle injury) comparisons and has also drawn a lot of interest from teams drafting from 5-10. Given that catchers always go a few spots earlier than they maybe should, Posey going in the top 10-12 choices seems like a safe bet. Smoak has gotten some mixed reviews, much of that being a function of a tough summer with wood bats for Team USA, and some being because scouts were watching him so much it was tough not to pick him apart. But now we’re in crosschecker season and Smoak is impressing the right people at the right time and getting some Mark Teixeira comparisons thrown his way. Some say he won’t get out of the top 5, others say the glut of first baseman could push him down as far as 10th. What is clear is that he’s getting hot at the right time, in front of the right people.

One last player doing all he can move up in the first round is Sarasota (FL) High SS Casey Kelly. Like Smoak, he’s been on watch lists for this draft for two years and also like Smoak, coming into the season scouts started knocking parts of his game almost because they saw him too much and had to think of something different to say after awhile. He’s gained some momentum this spring with his silky-smooth defense and his athletic 6′3 frame. There are no doubts he’ll stick at shortstop and some have said he could play shortstop in the big leagues right now. (I saw him at the Sarasota Classic—scouting report on the way—and do not disagree). Along with a sound approach at the plate, a history of hitting versus good competition, and a dynamic personality, Kelly has endeared himself to scouts and drawn some Derek Jeter comparisons. Kelly also showed a low 90’s fastball and flashed a plus slider on the mound this weekend with multiple team executives in attendance. There are teams in the mid first-round showing heavy interest and with franchise shortstop upside and a scholarship to play QB at Tennessee in the fall, he may be a candidate for an out-of-the-box deal to teams like Detroit or the Yankees.

Check back Monday for part two of this draft buzz installment, with an irresponsible stab at how the first 10 picks may play out.

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