By Frankie Piliere
We’ve been neglecting the hitters of the world of late so I thought it would be time to break out the bats. And, if I’m going to give you a hitter, then we might as well start off with a bang. Bottom line: Dennis Raben is one of a handful of flat out mashers in this 2008 draft class, a group he firmly entrenched himself with after an outstanding summer in Cape Cod. Unfortunately, the lefty slugger is currently missing time in his college season with back problems, but I certainly hope he’s back soon and not hampered. He’s got some power in his bat that is a real rarity. Take a look at his scouting report and video after the jump…
Dennis Raben, RF, Orleans Cardinals (Miami-FL)
Tool - Present/Future Grades
Hitting - 50/55
Power - 70/70
Speed - 45/45
Fielding - 50/50
Arm - 60/60
Physical Description - Large, extra strong, muscular frame. Wide shoulders and is a true physical specimen. Thick legs, muscular arms. Probably maxed out physically but as big as he is, that’s fine. Has the look of a slugging big leaguer already. Well proportioned athlete, doesn’t look overly muscled despite his size. Looks like Chipper Jones.
Hitting - As confident a hitter as you’ll see. Good swagger at the plate. Short, powerful stroke with great extension. Long follow through with very little effort through the zone. Ball just explodes off his bat. Smooth, compact swing. Shows ability to use the whole field but doesn’t seem quite committed to it yet. Stays closed, on the ball and lets his hands do the work. Tends to chase the ball up and out of the zone. High setup with his hands, stance looks somewhat like David Justice. Very relaxed at the plate with an aggressive approach. Doesn’t take bad swings. A little pull happy right now and must learn to deal with pitches on the outer half. Looks like he was born to hit, not many things to go array in his swing. Needs some refinement in his approach.
Power - Pure power hitter with plus plus power right now. Hits towering home runs, light tower power. Has the tendency to overswing and doesn’t need to. Can produce 400 foot + home runs with a flick of the wrist. Power is game playable, not just BP power. Can drive the ball out in any part of the park. Has a slight uppercut and produces tremendous loft. Future 40 home run threat.
Speed - A slightly below average runner, simply too large a frame to be much more than that. Gets decent enough reads in the outfield to have average range. Not a base stealing threat.
Fielding - Projects to be a big league average right fielder. Covers a good amount of ground and shows ability to make decent reads. His routes aren’t always the best but he fits the bill neatly in right field.
Arm - Plus arm strength. Not always the most accurate arm but shows excellent online carry. Has history on the mound, and has good natural throwing mechanics. Could be a weapon.
Notes - Fiery, emotional player who sometimes can let that get in his way. Can’t stand to lose. Power could be game changing at the pro level, profiles as a middle of the order slugger.
Adjusted Overall Future Potential: 65
Present Group: P, Future Group: A
Projected Role: Middle-of-the-order hitter, perennial all-star in right field
Draft Projection: Between picks 10 and 20 (would be 5-10 if not for injury)
Overall Comparison: David Justice (with slightly better pure hitting ability)
Help Saber-Scouting Grow: Submit or Comment on this story at BallHype and BTF.
13 responses so far ↓
1 Jason // Mar 26, 2008 at 11:06 pm
I always thought Justice was a better hitter then his career stats seem to suggest. Only two 40+ homer seasons, only three 100 RBI season, only one season with an OPS+ over 150. I suppose he was always in the playoff hunt and face time does count (for you and you’re wife?), but somehow I’d assumed he was closer to borderline Hall of Fame then borderline footnote.
That’s not the point of the article I guess :)
I love the site so far an I’ve been getting the word out. Keep it up guys!
2 fpiliere44 // Mar 26, 2008 at 11:25 pm
Hey Jason,
Glad you like the site. And thanks for spreading the word!
You’re right about Justice…probably because whenever we paid most attention (playoffs, big games) he was getting it done.
It’s odd though, and Kiley and I talked about this, because comparisons are such a tricky business. And, this isn’t even regarding Raben/Justice specifically. We’d like to think in a perfect world, Raben reaches his ceiling of perennial .300, 40 HR+ hitter. I think you’ll find here that our comparisons are a bit more logical. Maybe it would even be wise for us to (and I believe BP might do somthing like this) have a “perfect world” comparison and then a conservative comparison.
I just thought this would be a good opportunity to bring that up. It’s a very interesting/tricky part of scouting.
3 Jason // Mar 26, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Eek … I checked wiki to make sure Justice had a famous wife (it was Halle Barry) and it notes his Mitchel report info.
Here’s to hoping baseball’s long night is nearing its dawn.
4 dan12 // Mar 27, 2008 at 12:10 am
Are the injury concerns serious enough to drop him to the end of the first round? I’m hoping the Yankees can get a masher, they certainly have enough pitching, maybe I’m being a little too optimistic about him falling in the draft.
And speaking of the draft, will your posts become more draft-specific as the date approaches, in terms of evaluating where players could be drafted?
5 jscape2000 // Mar 27, 2008 at 12:19 am
I’m not used to watching scouting videos, so it could be the angle, but aren’t his hands really far forward? It seems like that timing mechanism of pulling his hands down and back to the hitting position would need to be corrected/ receive constant attention. Then again, I’m hardly a world-class athlete…
Also, you project him as first rounder. Is this a poor year for hitters? I’d think there’d be some better rounded guys in the first round- these already big players seem to lose their flexibility and defensive value quickly. Is his power just that far above and beyond? Can you articulate how you balance projectable tools against polish (ready to move through the system quickly)?
Wow, that’s a lot more questions than I meant it to be…
6 dan12 // Mar 27, 2008 at 12:50 am
Just looked at his stats from the past two seasons. The video had me sold, but then again this is batting practice we’re seeing. The light tower power mentioned here isn’t evident in his numbers at Miami. He strikes out a TON, with a .56 BB/K ratio, and uninspiring power numbers. Hopefully the injury was responsible for depressing his numbers and we’ll see a better Raben this season.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Dennis-Raben.shtml
7 fpiliere44 // Mar 27, 2008 at 1:02 am
Raben is one of those guys where you truly cannot go by his past numbers. Everything really came together for him over the summer. He dropped pitching, which was taking much of his concentration away from hitting, and from what I understand made some big time mechanical adjustments near the end of his sophomore season.
And, his numbers in the Cape (an extreme pitcher’s league) opened a lot of eyes.
Since this is a year loaded with bats, I could most definitely see these injuries pushing him back. Back problems sometimes scare teams to begin with.
I know since I rave about his power, it may overshadow the fact that he really is a very good pure hitter. This is one of those guys that is just a major masher waiting to happen and is right there with Smoak, Alonso, etc.
For a college hitter like this, you kind of know what you have. Raben’s gonna make his dough with the lumber but I really think he’ll be fine defensively. But, I mean we’re talking about a guy that could hit .300 and hit have elite level 40 HR power.
As it is with every other player, there are differing opinions on players. Some scouts love Raben as much as I do (that’s the majority), and some have doubts.
But, that’s what you’ll see here. We want to be totally up front with all of our readers so you guys know exactly what we think.
We will be wrong and won’t be able to downplay with past vague reports, lol. That I think is the beauty of what we’re doing.
8 Jason // Mar 27, 2008 at 1:55 am
Ya know what id like? tales from the field… scouting has to be more then just plus plus rates and long car rides, maybe its just that im reading “ball four” again (3 rd time) but im sure you all have amazing (you thing its boring im sure it isnt) things to tell us about real live scouting.
9 Saber-scouting | // Mar 27, 2008 at 3:50 am
[…] Today’s profile is of Dennis Raben, a power-hitter from the University of Miami who they grade as a 70/70, which if you know scouting grades (if you don’t they’ve got a tutorial) is pretty amazing for a college-level hitter. That’s to say he’s a potential all-star. […]
10 fpiliere44 // Mar 27, 2008 at 10:43 am
Good idea, Jason. I like to spin my yarns as much as the next guy, lol.
And, yes you are right, there is a lot that goes into scouting and a lot of stories to be told.
In what way do you think we should present stories such as this? I like the idea, but am not sure of the angle.
Remember, we are thirsty for ideas so any suggestions you have are vital.
11 NMS // Mar 28, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I can see what it is about him that is appealing but I don’t really get all the love he gets. He doesn’t seem like a special prospect. He looks like a pretty normal college slugger prospect. I don’t get the .300-40 homer thing at all.
He is way too passive at the plate, takes meatballs and then flails and misses and breaking balls.
He has some power but he doesn’t always use it either
He looks like Pat Burrell, with a shakier strike zone
12 fpiliere44 // Mar 28, 2008 at 4:07 pm
NMS, I assume you’ve seen Raben?
I just want to note again, Raben was a different guy in Cape Cod than he was in college as a sophomore. I didn’t have the chance to see him as a sophomore. All I know is the guy we all saw in the Cape deserved this grade easily and I know some guys even graded him higher. A lot changed from him from the spring to the summer. And the power is pretty special.
13 Pro Ball USA » Dennis Raben // Feb 9, 2009 at 6:24 am
[…] Here’s a real good early-2008 scouting report on Raben. It comp’ed him to David Justice, projected his role as “perennial ML all-star in RF,” and slotted him to the #10-20 overall (#5-10 if not for his injury). Concerns about that dropped Raben all the way to the #66 overall, where the M’s grabbed him. […]
Leave a Comment